There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that it's an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off more in Cook than downstate in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.
Quit pretending this poll has any chance of being accurate. Seriously.
We all know that if a poll showed up where Nathan Deal or Scott Walker was leading by 11 we'd all be refusing to believe it in any way, shape, or form - but when a poll (from a newspaper (!)) shows up showing Pat Quinn (who is arguably in more trouble than Deal or Walker) leading by 11 (after public polling showing him trailing for months upon months, and the most recent internal showing him with only a 3 point lead), it's suddenly the most accurate poll in existence, just because Quinn has a D after his name? Quit being ridiculous. If outliers favoring republicans are inaccurate, then so are outliers favoring democrats (and vice versa).
Needless to say, this poll has no stake in my ratings.
