Fall of the House of Kerry

[NHI]

The Democrats Fractured

In a generation the Democrats have never been so divided. The party finds itself divided over the Iraq War, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the extramarital affair and the President's own leadership. John Kerry finds himself with a party coming apart, and some pundits argue he's in the worst position of any incumbent since Jimmy Carter. Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. An escalation of the war in Iraq, despite promises to withdraw. The government's poor handling of the Hurricane Katrina has led to souring approval ratings, and the revelations that John Edwards carried out an extramarital affair with a staffers has lead to call for his resignation.

For months there has been speculation that John Kerry might decline seeking a second term, do to calls from some voices on the left in his party shouting for him to step aside. In an interview with CNN Vermont Congressman Bernie Sanders echoed the sentiments of liberal Democrats, "The President has really been a great disappointment. He has not lived up to the expectations so many of us had for him. It's quite frustrating, we as a party need to offer stark contrasts and we're frankly becoming if not already become Republican-lite."

President Kerry Approval Rating: January 2007

Approve: 36%

Disapprove: 50%
Undecided/No Opinion: 12%

General Election Polls: January 2007

John McCain: 50%
John Kerry: 40%

[NHI]

General Election 2004: Kerry narrowly defeats Bush

√ (D) John Kerry: 279 (50.0%)

(R) George W. Bush: 259 (49.0%)

[Consciously Unconscious]

Interesting...  Please continue. 

[Bigby]

Interesting idea. I'm also intrigued.

... I do love how John's been locked into a sex scandal. That just strikes me as odd, personally.

[Mister Mets]

Kerry does seem like a guy who would have been a one-termer, given the problems in Bush's second term.

Looking forward to what's coming next.

[Maxwell]

Interesting idea. I'm also intrigued.

... I do love how John's been locked into a sex scandal. That just strikes me as odd, personally.

I think he's talking about VP Edwards.

[NHI]

Dean Announces Bid to Challenge Kerry

"Simply put: We need Leadership." Howard Dean's bold declaration is all that needs to be said, in a speech where ended months of speculation and formally declared a second run for the White House, announcing he was challenging incumbent Democratic President John Kerry. "The President has failed our party, he's failed the country and it's time for a change." Dean blasted Kerry for failing to end the Iraq War and for the mishandling of the government's response to Hurricane Katrina. Though, the speech was merely an attack on Kerry, Dean put forward his own agenda and why Democrats should back away from the President and nominate him. "He's been tepid. He'll compromise with Republicans, he'll  say he's for one thing, then do another. Let me tell you what I'll do. I'll get us universal healthcare, I'll balance our budget, I end our addiction to foreign oil and I'll end the war in Iraq once and for all."

Dean's candidacy is the answer liberals have been searching for, though despite his star power and fundraising prowess, most Democratic pundits expect the former Vermont Governor to face a tough challenge in taking on the incumbent president, let alone defeating him. MSNBC analyst and host of Hardball Chris Matthews offered this comment, "Jimmy Carter, as bad as he was and his sour as the public was on him, Ted Kennedy, the liberal lion of the Senate, the heir to the Kennedy throne could not unseat him. Now I would argue that Democrats are lot more sophisticated in 2008 then in 1980 and we're not simply going to put up and shut up. There are stark differences and we're tired of it. Ironically, we're like Republicans. They're always complaining about the candidate or president being too moderate or not conservative enough. This time we're saying the President isn't liberal enough and we want a change."

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: January 2007

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 23%
Undecided: 29%

Limbaugh on Democratic Primary: Great for Republicans

Conservative radio host, Rush Limbaugh praised the divide in the Democratic Party, a "big win for the Republicans in 2008." He also called the division a win for conservatives. "The Democrats are divided, this is not John Forbes Kerry marching to victory in 2008, they're in a mess. Now we finally, have an opportunity to find the right candidate, we don't have to settle for Amnesty-loving, campaign finance pusher McCain. We can have a stark, and clear contrast to whatever whacko the Democrats put up."

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I look forward to seeing how this plays out.

[Bigby]

Interesting idea. I'm also intrigued.

... I do love how John's been locked into a sex scandal. That just strikes me as odd, personally.

I think he's talking about VP Edwards.

I just re-read the original post and you're right. It was Edwards and not Kerry. Serves me right for reading right after working on a take-home exam.

[NHI]

Republican Primary Preference Poll: January 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 31%
John McCain: 27%
Mitt Romney: 9%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
George Pataki: 2%
Sam Brownback: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Ron Paul: 1%
Undecided/Other: 19%

Fire on the Right

Ann Coulter, never one to mince words blasted the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Of Giuliani she said, "The Republican Party will never nominate a pro-choice Republican, if we do we minds we'll close up shop for good, because you lose the argument when standing next to Kerry or Dean." On McCain, "We don't need a closet Democrat leading up to an electoral disaster. We lost in 1964 with Barry Goldwater, at least he stood on principle, McCain would be just be destroyed." Ann Coulter is admittedly still on the fence over whom she will support, but said she is leaning towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Dean Gaining

The primary challenger that won't be silenced. Howard Dean continues to make his case in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, while President Kerry continues to run a "Rose Garden Strategy" following in the footsteps of George H.W. Bush, who in 1992 faced a primary challenge on the right from commentator Pat Buchanan. While Kerry's approval rating hovers around 37 percent, so long as Dean's number don't continue to climb it is best for Kerry to avoid confronting his opponent. Some prominent Democrats, including Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton have come out in support of the President, urging the party to stay united.

Iowa Likes Mike

The former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee is making quite an impression with Iowa Republicans, prompting some to speculate he might be the dark horse in the race to watch. So far both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain continue to top national polls with the rest of the candidates trailing behind them, but their numbers are not as impressive in Iowa. Tim Russert of Meet The Press had this to say, "The caucuses are very different than New Hampshire, or Florida or even South Carolina. Both McCain and Giuliani are likely to struggle in Iowa, and special focus should be paid to both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. If either one can catch lighting in a bottle, then they're off to a great start."

Harkin Backs Dean, "It's time for a real change!"

Iowa's popular senator Tom Harkin has once more announced his support for Howard Dean, saying at a rally in Des Moines, "The winds of change are blowing this way. We have a man who will help rebuild this nation and I urge all Democrats to join me in supporting this great man, Howard Dean, the next President of the United States." Harkin's endorsement came as a surprise, with many believing he would sit out the primary, even Harkin's aides admitted the Senator was on the fence, but decided in late April to join in supporting Dean. "There's too much at stake and too much wrong in the country." Harkin's endorsement is seen as a major boost to Dean's campaign, while Dean finished third in Iowa to John Kerry in 2004, a two man race may prove to be different. The latest Des Moines Register Poll puts Kerry ahead 48 percent to 27 percent.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: April 2007

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 28%

Iowa Caucuses Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +21)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 25%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +10)

John Kerry: 44%
Howard Dean: 34%
Undecided: 22%

Michigan Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +18)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 30%
Undecided: 20%

Florida Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +20)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 28%
Undecided: 32%

South Carolina Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +20)

John Kerry: 47%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 26%

General Election Poll: April 2007

(R) John McCain: 50%
(D) John Kerry: 40%

(R) John McCain: 51%
(D) Howard Dean: 38%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51%
(D) John Kerry: 39%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 50%

(D) Howard Dean: 39%

(R) Mitt Romney: 45%
(D) John Kerry: 43%

(R) Mitt Romney: 48%
(D) Howard Dean: 39%

[NHI]

The Republican Primary Heats up

Republicans becoming as divided as the Democrats. Rudy Giuliani continues to lead national polls, but his numbers are beginning to dip in states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. John McCain's campaign continues to be on life support, with little money or campaign infrastructure the Arizona Senator is focusing his little resources and time all in New Hampshire, the state which delivered his campaign a comeback eight years earlier against George W. Bush.

In Iowa, it looks to be a race between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Romney decisively won the Ames Straw poll back in August, but the numbers have continued to tighten in the caucus state, especially with the late entrance of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson; though his campaign have been considered a misfire, with him receiving very little support.

Ames Straw Poll: 2007

√ Mitt Romney: 37%
Mike Huckabee: 21%
Sam Brownback: 13%
Ron Paul: 11%
Tom Tancredo: 6.5%
Fred Thompson: 5.4%
Rudy Giuliani: 2.1%
John McCain: 1.0%
Duncan Hunter: 1.0%
Other: 2.0%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Giuliani +5)

Rudy Giuliani: 22%
Mitt Romney: 17%
Mike Huckabee: 16%
John McCain: 13%
Fred Thompson: 9%
Ron Paul: 7%
Undecided: 16%

Iowa Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007 (Romney +3)

Mitt Romney: 23%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Fred Thompson: 15%
Rudy Giuliani: 11%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 7%
Undecided: 16%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Giuliani +2)

Rudy Giuliani: 22%
Mitt Romney: 20%
John McCain: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 10%
Ron Paul: 9%
Fred Thompson: 5%
 Undecided: 13%

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Kerry +8)

John Kerry: 44%
Howard Dean: 36%
Undecided: 20%

Iowa Caucuses Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (+10)

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 35%
Undecided: 20%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Kerry +9)

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 36%
Undecided: 19%

[MATTROSE94]

Looks pretty good so far! BTW, how bad did the 2006 midterms turn out for the Democrats?

[NHI]

Iowa Caucuses

Iowa: Huckabee and Dean Shakeup

The Iowa Caucuses proved to be a major disruptor for the 2008 Presidential primary process. On the Republican side Former Arkansas Governor topped the one time favorite Mitt Romney, who outspent Huckabee across the board, but the results were hardly on a knife's edge. Huckabee cruised to a decisive victory, shaking up the race as it headed towards New Hampshire. Huckabee declared victory around ten pm, saying, "Tonight we proved the pundits wrong. We proved tonight that small, grassroots campaigns can make a difference and are the true voice of the Republican Party!"

Iowa Caucuses: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Mike Huckabee: 34.1%
Mitt Romney: 25.7%
Fred Thompson: 16.0%
Rudy Giuliani: 8.1%
John McCain: 7.9%
Ron Paul: 7.2%
Other: 1.0%

Dean Finishes Second, But Wounds Kerry

Howard Dean finished second, performing better than four years earlier, but still failed to topple President John Kerry. However, Dean and his campaign have reason to be smiling, as Kerry only beat back a strong challenge from Dean by 21 votes! The two traded leads throughout the night, but finally after midnight on the east coast the Associated Press called the race for Kerry.

Kerry now heads out of New Hampshire bloodied from his narrow finish. The President was forced to campaign in Iowa in the final weeks before the caucuses as the numbers continued to tighten, however Kerry did not attend an election night rally in Iowa, setting up a contrast to Dean who addressed a jubilant crowd of supporters and called his finish "a victory" and pledged to fight on and "win New Hampshire."

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ John Kerry: 1,261 (50.4%)
Howard Dean: 1,240 (49.6%)

[Bigby]

Now THAT Democratic primary is a close one.

[Lief 🗽]

Only 2,500 people voted in the Democratic caucus?

[The Other Castro]

Only 2,500 people voted in the Democratic caucus?

Only 2,500 voted in the 2008 one, and that was a highly energetic year, so this seems about right given the excitement of a serious primary challenge to an incumbent President.

[NHI]

New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney headed into the New Hampshire primary badly bruised. He lost the Iowa Caucuses after winning the Ames Straw Poll in August and pouring millions of dollars into the state only to be crushed by Mike Huckabee who had little campaign resources. In New Hampshire Romney faced fierce competition in the Granite State. John McCain, the winner from eight years prior had staked his entire campaign on winning the New Hampshire primary, while Rudy Giuliani looked to relaunch his flailing presidential bid with a first or second place finish in New Hampshire.

For Romney he faced a catch-22. For months he tried to position himself as the conservative alternative to both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, back-tracking and in some cases flip flopping on previous positions held. To most voters Romney looked like a political chameleon, void of any soul or conviction. As his campaign arrived in New Hampshire, the former Massachusetts Governor retooled his campaign. The economy was going to be playing a great role in the election than previously thought and Romney began speaking more of his business background, emphasizing his success at turning around the 2002 Olympic Games and how he was the man for the job. "Washington needs a Mr. Fix-It and I'm the man for the job."

As Romney looked to rebound, John Kerry came into New Hampshire on life support. Despite winning the Iowa Caucuses, he was losing to Howard Dean in the critical primary state. The media jumped on Kerry for a narrow win in Iowa (21 votes) and forecast it as the start of bad news for the incumbent President. Unlike in Iowa, the President was forced to contest in New Hampshire, though he had home-turf advantage, so to did Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont.

Compared to Howard Dean, Kerry looked tired and weathered on the stump and pundits described him as uncommitted to the process. "He looks like a candidate who doesn't want to campaign and Democrats are taking notice," Chris Matthews noted. Dean consistently called on Kerry to debate him in New Hampshire, but the President refused, believing success, like in Iowa would come from staying above the fray; he was wrong.

Dean Wins New Hampshire Primary

√ Howard Dean: 51.5%
John Kerry: 48.5%

By a bigger margin then expected Howard Dean defeated John Kerry in the New Hampshire, delivering a major blow to his campaign. In his speech in Concord, NH Kerry could only thank his supporters and pledged to fight on. Dean, by contrast delivered a rousing speech, thanking the people of New Hampshire and saying that the win signaled a turning point for the campaign. "New Hampshire has show to the rest of the country, that we are ready for change."

New Hampshire Holds for John McCain

In the closing days of New Hampshire, it became apparent that Rudy Giuliani was becoming less and less a focus. On the eve of the primary, he already began refocusing his campaign and sending much of his staff to Florida, his firewall; while Romney and McCain battled out for first in the Granite State. While by a closer margin then expected John McCain won the New Hampshire Primary, further damaging Romney's campaign. "Tonight," John McCain said to his supporters, "Tonight we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like!" The win reignited McCain's campaign, which up until then had been written off and left for dead. His win in New Hampshire shook up the primary race, just as Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa had done a week earlier.

√ John McCain: 35.1%
Mitt Romney: 32.5%
Mike Huckabee: 11.0%
Ron Paul: 10.1%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.9%
Fred Thompson: 0.9%
Other: 0.5%

Republican's Hopes...after Dean's win in New Hampshire.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: January 2008

Howard Dean: 42%

John Kerry: 41%

Undecided: 17%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: January 2008

John McCain: 28%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 15%
Ron Paul: 3%
Undecided: 13%

General Election Poll: January 2008

John McCain: 51% (+7)
John Kerry: 44%

Mitt Romney: 49% (+4)
John Kerry: 45%

John McCain: 52% (+10)
Howard Dean: 42%

Mitt Romney: 50% (+9)
Howard Dean: 41%

Mike Huckabee: 47% (+2)
John Kerry: 45%

Mike Huckabee: 48% (+4%)
Howard Dean: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)
John Kerry: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+8)
Howard Dean: 42%

[Erc]

Only 2,500 people voted in the Democratic caucus?

Only 2,500 voted in the 2008 one, and that was a highly energetic year, so this seems about right given the excitement of a serious primary challenge to an incumbent President.

Due to the way the caucus works, the Democrats don't report a popular vote total but instead the rough equivalent of a delegate count to the state convention.  This takes into account recaucusing (candidates with less support who don't meet the threshold at a given caucus can change their votes---though that's obviously not a factor in a two-horse race like this), controls for turnout differentials, etc., at the cost of some transparency / direct democracy.

[NHI]

The Long, hard Primary Slog

In the weeks after New Hampshire Democrats voters continued to show increasing preference to the idea of Howard Dean leading the top of the Presidential ticket, rather their own incumbent President, John Kerry. The upset in New Hampshire was an especially hard blow for the Kerry campaign. Kerry, the former Senator from neighboring Massachusetts was cast aside like yesterday's news. Determined to fight back, the President went after Dean in Nevada and South Carolina contests. While expensive the gambit proved successful. Dean only won Nevada by a narrow margin (50.9% - 49.1%), while Kerry carried South Carolina (51.7% - 48.3%)

The two candidates were two-for-two heading into the Michigan primary, which the media and the punditry declared as a turning for either campaign. A loss for Kerry meant a long, hard primary slog, that could very end in him losing the nomination, or at the very least a brokered convention. On the other hand, a loss for Dean would all but end his insurgent bid for the Presidency. Fortunately, for Dean the former, rather than the latter happened.

Howard Dean managed to defeat Kerry in Michigan, trouncing the Democrat outright in the states' urban areas, turning out the youth vote and won a sizable percentage of the black vote. In the end Dean won the state with 51.5% of the vote to Kerry's 48.5%. To the President's and many in the Democratic Party's chagrin the primary fight would continue!

Reincarnation existed, at least for the McCain Campaign. The Arizona Senator's comeback in New Hampshire saved his campaign and prolonged on the path towards the Republican nomination, but he still faced competition from both Mitt Romney (the bruised flip-flopper) and Mike Huckabee (the grassroots populist). In Michigan, Romney easily carried the state, (where his father served as Governor decades earlier) winning with 44 percent of the vote and reinserted himself into the race, where he set his sites on the Florida primary, the last stand for Rudy Giuliani.

Romney scored a second win in the Nevada Caucuses, while McCain poured his resources into South Carolina, the state where Mike Huckabee looked to repeat his Iowa upset. Romney long ago wrote off the state, instead focusing on Florida, which he hoped to serve as a launching pad for Super Tuesday. Huckabee needed a miracle. Low on campaign funds he took the same approach as had in Iowa, hoping for a repeat the same magic. Polls shows a close race between Huckabee and McCain heading into the primary.

McCain, who was burned badly by the Bush Campaign in 2000, harbored deep resentments with the state and saw it as even more important than winning New Hampshire a second time. This was to be a symbolic victory. In end, albeit narrowly, McCain lost to Huckabee, further casting doubts on his abilities to unite the Republican Party and suggesting that like the Democratic primary the Republican one would continue.

South Carolina Primary: Republicans

√ Mike Huckabee: 33.1%
John McCain: 32.5%
Mitt Romney: 18.6%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.0%
Ron Paul: 5.8%

Florida looked to be the battle royal for both parties' slate of candidates. On the Republican side Rudy Giuliani needed to win Florida to have any hope of staying alive past Super Tuesday. John McCain needed to reassure the party that he was the man to lead the ticket. Mike Huckabee needed to keep momentum going from his squeaker in South Carolina and Mitt Romney needed to prove himself not only as an alternative to John McCain, but as the one true candidate able to unite the Republican Party.

Governor Charlie Crist's endorsement was sought after. At one point he pledged neutrality, when it looked like McCain might lose New Hampshire, but then reneged on that statement when the race was shaken up in South Carolina. Giuliani strongly coveted the endorsement, after all Florida at this point and time was his entire campaign, without a win here, he would be finished.

On the Democratic side, the states' pricey media market favored Kerry who outspent Dean 2-1 on advertisements. Going into the primary the Dean Campaign acknowledged it was an uphill fight and that defeat was all but a given. To them it was about keeping Kerry from over performing, thereby setting him for a good showing on Super Tuesday.

In the end, Kerry as predicted won Florida, but it was not the blowout his campaign or the media expected. Going into the night most polls showed Kerry winning with 52 and 53 percent of the vote, but in the final result Kerry won with just over 51 percent of the vote, to Dean who won just under 49 percent. The Kerry Campaign declared it a victory and indeed it was, but the primary was far from over. Despite the win, for a sitting President a margin of just of 1 percent did not spell success, it spelled trouble.

In Florida It's Romney!

Aided by the last minute endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Mitt Romney squeaked by in the Florida Primary, sending Rudy Giuliani packing back to New York and John McCain and his campaign into a tailspin. Pundits attributed both the endorsement by Crist and Romney's new campaign focus on the economy; highlighting his business career and turn-around expertise as what mad the difference. The results were staggering. Out of the four main contests: New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, there had been different winners (save for Iowa and South Carolina which were won by Huckabee). Pundits declared it a three-man race heading into Super Tuesday, though at the end it would either be a two-man race consisting of Romney and Huckabee or McCain and Huckabee. For McCain, already 2008 was starting to look eerily similar to 2000 and many began to question if the Arizona campaign was finally finished. Angered and fired up, McCain pressed on, attacking Romney as a flip-flopper and vowed to have a comeback on Super Tuesday.

Florida Primary: Republican

√ Mitt Romney: 30.2%

John McCain: 28.0%
Rudy Giuliani: 25.1%
Mike Huckabee: 15.8%
Ron Paul: 2.0%

John Kerry: 165

Howard Dean 157

Mitt Romney: 122/1,191

Mike Huckabee: 53/1,191

John McCain: 19/1,191

[RedPrometheus]

Another great timeline!

[Senator Cris]

Another great timeline!

[NHI]

Then There Were Two

Mitt Romney: 740

Mike Huckabee: 271
John McCain: 69

Mitt Romney came out of Super Tuesday the clear frontrunner and favorite for the Republican Nomination. He dominated, winning across the board and toppling longtime favorite John McCain in the need to win states of Illinois and California. Mike Huckabee won all of the southern primaries and came in second in a few to Romney's first, but he trailed the former Massachusetts Governor in terms of delegates and finances.

After the results on Super Tuesday John McCain faced the music and ended his bid for President, swiftly backing Romney in a brief statement. "My friends, we have come to the end of a long journey, a journey I wish could have gone a different way, but we must face the facts. I hereby end my campaign for President. There is no more road for us to travel my friends. I endorse Mitt Romney as the nominee of our party. Good night and God Bless America."

Howard Dean: 997

John Kerry: 963

Howard Dean came out with an narrow lead in the delegates on Super Tuesday, winning some of the big primaries like New York and California, while John Kerry walked away with wins in Illinois and Arizona and all but one of the southern states. Kerry pledged to fight on, though Democrats on both sides of the primary fight believed the divided party would only help likely likely Mitt Romney. However, Howard Dean came out of Super Tuesday with momentum. "We're in the driver's seat. We have the energy. We're going to win."

[NHI]

MITT!

Mitt Romney officially became the Republican Nominee after sweeping the March 4th contest, defeating Mike Huckabee in the day's contests. Matter of fact, it had been quite certain for over a month that Romney would be the Republican nominee, in the contest following Super Tuesday, Huckabee only carried the Louisiana Caucuses, (51%-48%), but lacked the campaign resources to effectively take on Romney, but vowed to stay in the race until one candidate secured the necessary delegates to be nominated. In his victory speech Romney took clear aim at both President John Kerry and Governor Howard Dean, calling them "Copy-cats. No matter who wins the nomination, it'll be the same failed policies, the same lack of direction; we don't need followers of a broken ideology, we need results -- we need leadership!"

On the Democratic side, the race still remained in question. Dean and Kerry effectively split the contests over the course of the month. On March 4th, "Super Tuesday Two" Kerry did come out ahead, winning three of the four contests (Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island). Dean only won Vermont.  The big losses in Ohio and Texas dampened the Dean's momentum and some pundits saw the nomination slipping away from the former Vermont Governor. DNC Chairman Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen officially lambasted Dean, saying that his continued presence and involvement in the primary would only hurt John Kerry and essentially "hand the election over to Mitt Romney and the Republicans."

Democrats had reason to fret. Polls showed dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, the weakening economy and Kerry's own leadership, that in public opinion polls the presumptive Republican nominee continued to trounce both John Kerry and Howard Dean.

"We're not only looking at a landslide like the which we haven't seen in decades, but a real readjusting of this political landscape." -- Karl Rove

KERRY WINS NOMINATION

It took until the end of the process, but on June 3rd, John Kerry finally went over the top, winning the South Dakota and Montana primaries, making him the presumptive nominee once more. Dean in a speech to supporters in Vermont, did not officially endorse Kerry - yet. Instead he left the door open to a possible floor fight at the convention. The political punditry class dumped on Dean's speech calling it self-serving and bombastic. "Kerry is the nominee, Dean should sit down and shut-up," James Carville said on CNN's Larry King. "He's lost!"

Democrats Unite!

While his Tuesday night speech caused some head scratching and shortness of breath, John Kerry and Howard Dean ultimately united in a rally in of all place, a small town in New Hampshire called Unity. Dean fully embraced Kerry as the nominee and pledged his loyalty, his support and passion to "reelecting him and keeping Mitt Romney where he belongs: in Massachusetts."

In the days following the end to the primary, John Kerry and Vice President John Edwards, who remained largely absent during the process, announced officially that he would not run again as Vice President. Instantly, speculation began over who Kerry would select as his running mate. Many supporters thought the only choice was Howard Dean, as a true way of unifying the Democratic party, but Dean ruled himself out of contention from the start.

Immediately the shortlist included: Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, DNC Chair Jeanne Shaheen and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Randell. Kerry said his choice would be announced at August Convention. While Kerry and the Democrats readied for their convention Denver, Romney and the Republican headed to St. Paul, with a clear message: Romney means Change, Kerry means more of the same.

On his shortlist, the presumptive nominee revealed he was considering: Former rival and Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawletny, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, New Hampshire Senator John Sununu, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

Republicans Nominate Romney

The Republican Ticket: Romney-Pawlenty

Mitt Romney announced his selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. It was seen as a smart pick by Romney, who looked to sure up the conservative base of the party, while also picking someone who appealed to what the pundits described as "Sam-Club Republicans". While Romney could appeals to businesses and speak on his own experiences a turn-around expertise, Pawlenty could take a more populist approach, plus it balanced the ticket and was seen a boost to Romney in the midwest.

ROMNEY: Kerry has 'failed America'; promises to begin anew

In his acceptance speech, watched by an estimated 35 million people, Mitt Romney lambasted John Kerry for the weakening economy, mishandling the wars in the Middle East and being aloof when it comes to leadership. "President Kerry made us a lot of promises four years and when we look at this record and can judge him on his promise, we're left with a sad conclusion, President Kerry has failed America...we've been settling these past four years and now it is time to turn the page and begin anew."

Republicans left energized and united behind the Romney-Pawlenty ticket and with a clear lead in the polls. Democrats headed to Denver, where John Kerry that Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be his running mate. The pick energized a party sorely need it and changed the dynamics of the race. At the convention went after Romney, calling him 'a lover of big business and enabler of crony capitalism'. They attacked his business record and his apparent flip flops on abortion and gay marriage.

Kerry Looks to Rebuild Crumbling Party

'...my friends we are a nation that Mitt Romney calls failed. He says we're adrift. Well, fellow Democrats it's Mitt Romney who has a record of failure, it's Mitt Romney who's adrift. His strategy is to tare you down to build himself up. He believes the only way to win is to divide Americans, where Kathleen Sebelius and I want to unite Americans."

Democrats left Denver with their spirits as the two Massachusetts natives looked ready for a political showdown. Romney had his negatives, his perception as a flip flopper and over his business career. Kerry's negatives were the sinking economy and questions of his own leadership.

Gallup Poll: September 2008

(D) John Kerry: 47%

(R) Mitt Romney: 46%

[NHI]

The Fight

Gallup Tracking Poll:

(D) John Kerry: 48%
(R) Mitt Romney: 46%

John Kerry, successful in his primary fight and after unified convention, with Democrats praising his attacks on Mitt Romney, the 44th President of the United States took to the campaign trail with a renewed vigor. Polls showed it was looking to be a close race -- possibly, if not probably closer than four years earlier. Kerry, was the underdog, despite a successful convention, there were still lingering questions over his own leadership and the weakening economy. Campaign operatives believed the only way to win the election was to make a choice between Kerry and Romney, for an election as a referendum would most surely result in a loss.

Strangely enough, John Kerry and his campaign had been preparing to run against John Mccain or Rudy Giuliani and were quite surprised when Mitt Romney caught fire and ended up securing the nomination. Kerry, who knew Romney as the Governor of Massachusetts, did not seriously believe he could ever win a national election. While Kerry had been dogged as a flip-flopper by Republicans and George W. Bush in 2004, that label had largely faded, as Kerry won the election in his own right. While unprepared to face Romney at first, the Democrats wasted no time in trying to define their opponent as a friend of the rich, a flip-flopper on issues of abortion and gay marriage and as someone who could not be trusted.

"For us the trust issue was key. Voters liked Romney's background in business. His turnaround of the Olympics in Salt Lake was a positive. They saw him as someone who understood the economy and could fix it. So in that regard we were weak, voters saw us as letting them down and for presiding over a crumbling economy. We decided the best thing was to play the election as a choice between two visions and narrowing that down further as who do you trust, who has your back." -- Mark Penn.

Former President Bill Clinton strongly urged John Kerry to take on Romney on the basis of character, that questions about his business record would backfire. "Defeating Romney can be a simple as: Who is this guy, can you trust him? He's slick which can be both bad and good." As the month of September got under way Kerry's number slowly began to climb. Coming out the convention he led Romney by an average of one point in most polls and now was slowly inching towards a 2-3 point lead. Sensing the momentum shifting, the Romney campaign doubled down blasting Kerry's handling of the economy.

From the start of the campaign, campaign manager Matt Rhodes declared the election to be about the economy and for Romney to win he needed to play up his strength, which was Kerry's weakness. "It's about jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs," Mitt Romney said on the stump. "President Kerry hasn't delivered for America, it's time to give him a pink slip."

Both camps knew the debates would be consequential. For Kerry, a chance to cement his regained sense of momentum and for Romney to deliver a knockout punch. Certainly, the stakes were higher for Romney who needed to prove he could go toe-to-toe with the sitting President of the United States.

[Bigby]

Knowing Romney OTL, I'm worried about his chances here, but let's see how he performs against Kerry ATL before I comment.