Fall of the House of Kerry

[NHI]

The Democrats Fractured

In a generation the Democrats have never been so divided. The party finds itself divided over the Iraq War, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the extramarital affair and the President's own leadership. John Kerry finds himself with a party coming apart, and some pundits argue he's in the worst position of any incumbent since Jimmy Carter. Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. An escalation of the war in Iraq, despite promises to withdraw. The government's poor handling of the Hurricane Katrina has led to souring approval ratings, and the revelations that John Edwards carried out an extramarital affair with a staffers has lead to call for his resignation.

For months there has been speculation that John Kerry might decline seeking a second term, do to calls from some voices on the left in his party shouting for him to step aside. In an interview with CNN Vermont Congressman Bernie Sanders echoed the sentiments of liberal Democrats, "The President has really been a great disappointment. He has not lived up to the expectations so many of us had for him. It's quite frustrating, we as a party need to offer stark contrasts and we're frankly becoming if not already become Republican-lite."

President Kerry Approval Rating: January 2007

Approve: 36%

Disapprove: 50%
Undecided/No Opinion: 12%

General Election Polls: January 2007

John McCain: 50%
John Kerry: 40%

[NHI]

General Election 2004: Kerry narrowly defeats Bush

√ (D) John Kerry: 279 (50.0%)

(R) George W. Bush: 259 (49.0%)

[NHI]

Dean Announces Bid to Challenge Kerry

"Simply put: We need Leadership." Howard Dean's bold declaration is all that needs to be said, in a speech where ended months of speculation and formally declared a second run for the White House, announcing he was challenging incumbent Democratic President John Kerry. "The President has failed our party, he's failed the country and it's time for a change." Dean blasted Kerry for failing to end the Iraq War and for the mishandling of the government's response to Hurricane Katrina. Though, the speech was merely an attack on Kerry, Dean put forward his own agenda and why Democrats should back away from the President and nominate him. "He's been tepid. He'll compromise with Republicans, he'll  say he's for one thing, then do another. Let me tell you what I'll do. I'll get us universal healthcare, I'll balance our budget, I end our addiction to foreign oil and I'll end the war in Iraq once and for all."

Dean's candidacy is the answer liberals have been searching for, though despite his star power and fundraising prowess, most Democratic pundits expect the former Vermont Governor to face a tough challenge in taking on the incumbent president, let alone defeating him. MSNBC analyst and host of Hardball Chris Matthews offered this comment, "Jimmy Carter, as bad as he was and his sour as the public was on him, Ted Kennedy, the liberal lion of the Senate, the heir to the Kennedy throne could not unseat him. Now I would argue that Democrats are lot more sophisticated in 2008 then in 1980 and we're not simply going to put up and shut up. There are stark differences and we're tired of it. Ironically, we're like Republicans. They're always complaining about the candidate or president being too moderate or not conservative enough. This time we're saying the President isn't liberal enough and we want a change."

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: January 2007

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 23%
Undecided: 29%

Limbaugh on Democratic Primary: Great for Republicans

Conservative radio host, Rush Limbaugh praised the divide in the Democratic Party, a "big win for the Republicans in 2008." He also called the division a win for conservatives. "The Democrats are divided, this is not John Forbes Kerry marching to victory in 2008, they're in a mess. Now we finally, have an opportunity to find the right candidate, we don't have to settle for Amnesty-loving, campaign finance pusher McCain. We can have a stark, and clear contrast to whatever whacko the Democrats put up."

[NHI]

Republican Primary Preference Poll: January 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 31%
John McCain: 27%
Mitt Romney: 9%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
George Pataki: 2%
Sam Brownback: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Ron Paul: 1%
Undecided/Other: 19%

Fire on the Right

Ann Coulter, never one to mince words blasted the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Of Giuliani she said, "The Republican Party will never nominate a pro-choice Republican, if we do we minds we'll close up shop for good, because you lose the argument when standing next to Kerry or Dean." On McCain, "We don't need a closet Democrat leading up to an electoral disaster. We lost in 1964 with Barry Goldwater, at least he stood on principle, McCain would be just be destroyed." Ann Coulter is admittedly still on the fence over whom she will support, but said she is leaning towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Dean Gaining

The primary challenger that won't be silenced. Howard Dean continues to make his case in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, while President Kerry continues to run a "Rose Garden Strategy" following in the footsteps of George H.W. Bush, who in 1992 faced a primary challenge on the right from commentator Pat Buchanan. While Kerry's approval rating hovers around 37 percent, so long as Dean's number don't continue to climb it is best for Kerry to avoid confronting his opponent. Some prominent Democrats, including Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton have come out in support of the President, urging the party to stay united.

Iowa Likes Mike

The former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee is making quite an impression with Iowa Republicans, prompting some to speculate he might be the dark horse in the race to watch. So far both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain continue to top national polls with the rest of the candidates trailing behind them, but their numbers are not as impressive in Iowa. Tim Russert of Meet The Press had this to say, "The caucuses are very different than New Hampshire, or Florida or even South Carolina. Both McCain and Giuliani are likely to struggle in Iowa, and special focus should be paid to both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. If either one can catch lighting in a bottle, then they're off to a great start."

Harkin Backs Dean, "It's time for a real change!"

Iowa's popular senator Tom Harkin has once more announced his support for Howard Dean, saying at a rally in Des Moines, "The winds of change are blowing this way. We have a man who will help rebuild this nation and I urge all Democrats to join me in supporting this great man, Howard Dean, the next President of the United States." Harkin's endorsement came as a surprise, with many believing he would sit out the primary, even Harkin's aides admitted the Senator was on the fence, but decided in late April to join in supporting Dean. "There's too much at stake and too much wrong in the country." Harkin's endorsement is seen as a major boost to Dean's campaign, while Dean finished third in Iowa to John Kerry in 2004, a two man race may prove to be different. The latest Des Moines Register Poll puts Kerry ahead 48 percent to 27 percent.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: April 2007

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 28%

Iowa Caucuses Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +21)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 25%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +10)

John Kerry: 44%
Howard Dean: 34%
Undecided: 22%

Michigan Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +18)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 30%
Undecided: 20%

Florida Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +20)

John Kerry: 48%
Howard Dean: 28%
Undecided: 32%

South Carolina Primary Preference Poll: April 2007 (Kerry +20)

John Kerry: 47%
Howard Dean: 27%
Undecided: 26%

General Election Poll: April 2007

(R) John McCain: 50%
(D) John Kerry: 40%

(R) John McCain: 51%
(D) Howard Dean: 38%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51%
(D) John Kerry: 39%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 50%

(D) Howard Dean: 39%

(R) Mitt Romney: 45%
(D) John Kerry: 43%

(R) Mitt Romney: 48%
(D) Howard Dean: 39%

[NHI]

The Republican Primary Heats up

Republicans becoming as divided as the Democrats. Rudy Giuliani continues to lead national polls, but his numbers are beginning to dip in states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. John McCain's campaign continues to be on life support, with little money or campaign infrastructure the Arizona Senator is focusing his little resources and time all in New Hampshire, the state which delivered his campaign a comeback eight years earlier against George W. Bush.

In Iowa, it looks to be a race between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Romney decisively won the Ames Straw poll back in August, but the numbers have continued to tighten in the caucus state, especially with the late entrance of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson; though his campaign have been considered a misfire, with him receiving very little support.

Ames Straw Poll: 2007

√ Mitt Romney: 37%
Mike Huckabee: 21%
Sam Brownback: 13%
Ron Paul: 11%
Tom Tancredo: 6.5%
Fred Thompson: 5.4%
Rudy Giuliani: 2.1%
John McCain: 1.0%
Duncan Hunter: 1.0%
Other: 2.0%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Giuliani +5)

Rudy Giuliani: 22%
Mitt Romney: 17%
Mike Huckabee: 16%
John McCain: 13%
Fred Thompson: 9%
Ron Paul: 7%
Undecided: 16%

Iowa Caucuses Preference Poll: November 2007 (Romney +3)

Mitt Romney: 23%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Fred Thompson: 15%
Rudy Giuliani: 11%
John McCain: 8%
Ron Paul: 7%
Undecided: 16%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Giuliani +2)

Rudy Giuliani: 22%
Mitt Romney: 20%
John McCain: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 10%
Ron Paul: 9%
Fred Thompson: 5%
 Undecided: 13%

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Kerry +8)

John Kerry: 44%
Howard Dean: 36%
Undecided: 20%

Iowa Caucuses Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (+10)

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 35%
Undecided: 20%

New Hampshire Primary Preference Poll: November 2007 (Kerry +9)

John Kerry: 45%
Howard Dean: 36%
Undecided: 19%

[NHI]

Iowa Caucuses

Iowa: Huckabee and Dean Shakeup

The Iowa Caucuses proved to be a major disruptor for the 2008 Presidential primary process. On the Republican side Former Arkansas Governor topped the one time favorite Mitt Romney, who outspent Huckabee across the board, but the results were hardly on a knife's edge. Huckabee cruised to a decisive victory, shaking up the race as it headed towards New Hampshire. Huckabee declared victory around ten pm, saying, "Tonight we proved the pundits wrong. We proved tonight that small, grassroots campaigns can make a difference and are the true voice of the Republican Party!"

Iowa Caucuses: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Mike Huckabee: 34.1%
Mitt Romney: 25.7%
Fred Thompson: 16.0%
Rudy Giuliani: 8.1%
John McCain: 7.9%
Ron Paul: 7.2%
Other: 1.0%

Dean Finishes Second, But Wounds Kerry

Howard Dean finished second, performing better than four years earlier, but still failed to topple President John Kerry. However, Dean and his campaign have reason to be smiling, as Kerry only beat back a strong challenge from Dean by 21 votes! The two traded leads throughout the night, but finally after midnight on the east coast the Associated Press called the race for Kerry.

Kerry now heads out of New Hampshire bloodied from his narrow finish. The President was forced to campaign in Iowa in the final weeks before the caucuses as the numbers continued to tighten, however Kerry did not attend an election night rally in Iowa, setting up a contrast to Dean who addressed a jubilant crowd of supporters and called his finish "a victory" and pledged to fight on and "win New Hampshire."

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ John Kerry: 1,261 (50.4%)
Howard Dean: 1,240 (49.6%)

[NHI]

New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney headed into the New Hampshire primary badly bruised. He lost the Iowa Caucuses after winning the Ames Straw Poll in August and pouring millions of dollars into the state only to be crushed by Mike Huckabee who had little campaign resources. In New Hampshire Romney faced fierce competition in the Granite State. John McCain, the winner from eight years prior had staked his entire campaign on winning the New Hampshire primary, while Rudy Giuliani looked to relaunch his flailing presidential bid with a first or second place finish in New Hampshire.

For Romney he faced a catch-22. For months he tried to position himself as the conservative alternative to both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, back-tracking and in some cases flip flopping on previous positions held. To most voters Romney looked like a political chameleon, void of any soul or conviction. As his campaign arrived in New Hampshire, the former Massachusetts Governor retooled his campaign. The economy was going to be playing a great role in the election than previously thought and Romney began speaking more of his business background, emphasizing his success at turning around the 2002 Olympic Games and how he was the man for the job. "Washington needs a Mr. Fix-It and I'm the man for the job."

As Romney looked to rebound, John Kerry came into New Hampshire on life support. Despite winning the Iowa Caucuses, he was losing to Howard Dean in the critical primary state. The media jumped on Kerry for a narrow win in Iowa (21 votes) and forecast it as the start of bad news for the incumbent President. Unlike in Iowa, the President was forced to contest in New Hampshire, though he had home-turf advantage, so to did Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont.

Compared to Howard Dean, Kerry looked tired and weathered on the stump and pundits described him as uncommitted to the process. "He looks like a candidate who doesn't want to campaign and Democrats are taking notice," Chris Matthews noted. Dean consistently called on Kerry to debate him in New Hampshire, but the President refused, believing success, like in Iowa would come from staying above the fray; he was wrong.

Dean Wins New Hampshire Primary

√ Howard Dean: 51.5%
John Kerry: 48.5%

By a bigger margin then expected Howard Dean defeated John Kerry in the New Hampshire, delivering a major blow to his campaign. In his speech in Concord, NH Kerry could only thank his supporters and pledged to fight on. Dean, by contrast delivered a rousing speech, thanking the people of New Hampshire and saying that the win signaled a turning point for the campaign. "New Hampshire has show to the rest of the country, that we are ready for change."

New Hampshire Holds for John McCain

In the closing days of New Hampshire, it became apparent that Rudy Giuliani was becoming less and less a focus. On the eve of the primary, he already began refocusing his campaign and sending much of his staff to Florida, his firewall; while Romney and McCain battled out for first in the Granite State. While by a closer margin then expected John McCain won the New Hampshire Primary, further damaging Romney's campaign. "Tonight," John McCain said to his supporters, "Tonight we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like!" The win reignited McCain's campaign, which up until then had been written off and left for dead. His win in New Hampshire shook up the primary race, just as Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa had done a week earlier.

√ John McCain: 35.1%
Mitt Romney: 32.5%
Mike Huckabee: 11.0%
Ron Paul: 10.1%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.9%
Fred Thompson: 0.9%
Other: 0.5%

Republican's Hopes...after Dean's win in New Hampshire.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: January 2008

Howard Dean: 42%

John Kerry: 41%

Undecided: 17%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: January 2008

John McCain: 28%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 15%
Ron Paul: 3%
Undecided: 13%

General Election Poll: January 2008

John McCain: 51% (+7)
John Kerry: 44%

Mitt Romney: 49% (+4)
John Kerry: 45%

John McCain: 52% (+10)
Howard Dean: 42%

Mitt Romney: 50% (+9)
Howard Dean: 41%

Mike Huckabee: 47% (+2)
John Kerry: 45%

Mike Huckabee: 48% (+4%)
Howard Dean: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)
John Kerry: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+8)
Howard Dean: 42%

[NHI]

The Long, hard Primary Slog

In the weeks after New Hampshire Democrats voters continued to show increasing preference to the idea of Howard Dean leading the top of the Presidential ticket, rather their own incumbent President, John Kerry. The upset in New Hampshire was an especially hard blow for the Kerry campaign. Kerry, the former Senator from neighboring Massachusetts was cast aside like yesterday's news. Determined to fight back, the President went after Dean in Nevada and South Carolina contests. While expensive the gambit proved successful. Dean only won Nevada by a narrow margin (50.9% - 49.1%), while Kerry carried South Carolina (51.7% - 48.3%)

The two candidates were two-for-two heading into the Michigan primary, which the media and the punditry declared as a turning for either campaign. A loss for Kerry meant a long, hard primary slog, that could very end in him losing the nomination, or at the very least a brokered convention. On the other hand, a loss for Dean would all but end his insurgent bid for the Presidency. Fortunately, for Dean the former, rather than the latter happened.

Howard Dean managed to defeat Kerry in Michigan, trouncing the Democrat outright in the states' urban areas, turning out the youth vote and won a sizable percentage of the black vote. In the end Dean won the state with 51.5% of the vote to Kerry's 48.5%. To the President's and many in the Democratic Party's chagrin the primary fight would continue!

Reincarnation existed, at least for the McCain Campaign. The Arizona Senator's comeback in New Hampshire saved his campaign and prolonged on the path towards the Republican nomination, but he still faced competition from both Mitt Romney (the bruised flip-flopper) and Mike Huckabee (the grassroots populist). In Michigan, Romney easily carried the state, (where his father served as Governor decades earlier) winning with 44 percent of the vote and reinserted himself into the race, where he set his sites on the Florida primary, the last stand for Rudy Giuliani.

Romney scored a second win in the Nevada Caucuses, while McCain poured his resources into South Carolina, the state where Mike Huckabee looked to repeat his Iowa upset. Romney long ago wrote off the state, instead focusing on Florida, which he hoped to serve as a launching pad for Super Tuesday. Huckabee needed a miracle. Low on campaign funds he took the same approach as had in Iowa, hoping for a repeat the same magic. Polls shows a close race between Huckabee and McCain heading into the primary.

McCain, who was burned badly by the Bush Campaign in 2000, harbored deep resentments with the state and saw it as even more important than winning New Hampshire a second time. This was to be a symbolic victory. In end, albeit narrowly, McCain lost to Huckabee, further casting doubts on his abilities to unite the Republican Party and suggesting that like the Democratic primary the Republican one would continue.

South Carolina Primary: Republicans

√ Mike Huckabee: 33.1%
John McCain: 32.5%
Mitt Romney: 18.6%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.0%
Ron Paul: 5.8%

Florida looked to be the battle royal for both parties' slate of candidates. On the Republican side Rudy Giuliani needed to win Florida to have any hope of staying alive past Super Tuesday. John McCain needed to reassure the party that he was the man to lead the ticket. Mike Huckabee needed to keep momentum going from his squeaker in South Carolina and Mitt Romney needed to prove himself not only as an alternative to John McCain, but as the one true candidate able to unite the Republican Party.

Governor Charlie Crist's endorsement was sought after. At one point he pledged neutrality, when it looked like McCain might lose New Hampshire, but then reneged on that statement when the race was shaken up in South Carolina. Giuliani strongly coveted the endorsement, after all Florida at this point and time was his entire campaign, without a win here, he would be finished.

On the Democratic side, the states' pricey media market favored Kerry who outspent Dean 2-1 on advertisements. Going into the primary the Dean Campaign acknowledged it was an uphill fight and that defeat was all but a given. To them it was about keeping Kerry from over performing, thereby setting him for a good showing on Super Tuesday.

In the end, Kerry as predicted won Florida, but it was not the blowout his campaign or the media expected. Going into the night most polls showed Kerry winning with 52 and 53 percent of the vote, but in the final result Kerry won with just over 51 percent of the vote, to Dean who won just under 49 percent. The Kerry Campaign declared it a victory and indeed it was, but the primary was far from over. Despite the win, for a sitting President a margin of just of 1 percent did not spell success, it spelled trouble.

In Florida It's Romney!

Aided by the last minute endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Mitt Romney squeaked by in the Florida Primary, sending Rudy Giuliani packing back to New York and John McCain and his campaign into a tailspin. Pundits attributed both the endorsement by Crist and Romney's new campaign focus on the economy; highlighting his business career and turn-around expertise as what mad the difference. The results were staggering. Out of the four main contests: New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, there had been different winners (save for Iowa and South Carolina which were won by Huckabee). Pundits declared it a three-man race heading into Super Tuesday, though at the end it would either be a two-man race consisting of Romney and Huckabee or McCain and Huckabee. For McCain, already 2008 was starting to look eerily similar to 2000 and many began to question if the Arizona campaign was finally finished. Angered and fired up, McCain pressed on, attacking Romney as a flip-flopper and vowed to have a comeback on Super Tuesday.

Florida Primary: Republican

√ Mitt Romney: 30.2%

John McCain: 28.0%
Rudy Giuliani: 25.1%
Mike Huckabee: 15.8%
Ron Paul: 2.0%

John Kerry: 165

Howard Dean 157

Mitt Romney: 122/1,191

Mike Huckabee: 53/1,191

John McCain: 19/1,191

[NHI]

Then There Were Two

Mitt Romney: 740

Mike Huckabee: 271
John McCain: 69

Mitt Romney came out of Super Tuesday the clear frontrunner and favorite for the Republican Nomination. He dominated, winning across the board and toppling longtime favorite John McCain in the need to win states of Illinois and California. Mike Huckabee won all of the southern primaries and came in second in a few to Romney's first, but he trailed the former Massachusetts Governor in terms of delegates and finances.

After the results on Super Tuesday John McCain faced the music and ended his bid for President, swiftly backing Romney in a brief statement. "My friends, we have come to the end of a long journey, a journey I wish could have gone a different way, but we must face the facts. I hereby end my campaign for President. There is no more road for us to travel my friends. I endorse Mitt Romney as the nominee of our party. Good night and God Bless America."

Howard Dean: 997

John Kerry: 963

Howard Dean came out with an narrow lead in the delegates on Super Tuesday, winning some of the big primaries like New York and California, while John Kerry walked away with wins in Illinois and Arizona and all but one of the southern states. Kerry pledged to fight on, though Democrats on both sides of the primary fight believed the divided party would only help likely likely Mitt Romney. However, Howard Dean came out of Super Tuesday with momentum. "We're in the driver's seat. We have the energy. We're going to win."

[NHI]

MITT!

Mitt Romney officially became the Republican Nominee after sweeping the March 4th contest, defeating Mike Huckabee in the day's contests. Matter of fact, it had been quite certain for over a month that Romney would be the Republican nominee, in the contest following Super Tuesday, Huckabee only carried the Louisiana Caucuses, (51%-48%), but lacked the campaign resources to effectively take on Romney, but vowed to stay in the race until one candidate secured the necessary delegates to be nominated. In his victory speech Romney took clear aim at both President John Kerry and Governor Howard Dean, calling them "Copy-cats. No matter who wins the nomination, it'll be the same failed policies, the same lack of direction; we don't need followers of a broken ideology, we need results -- we need leadership!"

On the Democratic side, the race still remained in question. Dean and Kerry effectively split the contests over the course of the month. On March 4th, "Super Tuesday Two" Kerry did come out ahead, winning three of the four contests (Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island). Dean only won Vermont.  The big losses in Ohio and Texas dampened the Dean's momentum and some pundits saw the nomination slipping away from the former Vermont Governor. DNC Chairman Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen officially lambasted Dean, saying that his continued presence and involvement in the primary would only hurt John Kerry and essentially "hand the election over to Mitt Romney and the Republicans."

Democrats had reason to fret. Polls showed dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, the weakening economy and Kerry's own leadership, that in public opinion polls the presumptive Republican nominee continued to trounce both John Kerry and Howard Dean.

"We're not only looking at a landslide like the which we haven't seen in decades, but a real readjusting of this political landscape." -- Karl Rove

KERRY WINS NOMINATION

It took until the end of the process, but on June 3rd, John Kerry finally went over the top, winning the South Dakota and Montana primaries, making him the presumptive nominee once more. Dean in a speech to supporters in Vermont, did not officially endorse Kerry - yet. Instead he left the door open to a possible floor fight at the convention. The political punditry class dumped on Dean's speech calling it self-serving and bombastic. "Kerry is the nominee, Dean should sit down and shut-up," James Carville said on CNN's Larry King. "He's lost!"

Democrats Unite!

While his Tuesday night speech caused some head scratching and shortness of breath, John Kerry and Howard Dean ultimately united in a rally in of all place, a small town in New Hampshire called Unity. Dean fully embraced Kerry as the nominee and pledged his loyalty, his support and passion to "reelecting him and keeping Mitt Romney where he belongs: in Massachusetts."

In the days following the end to the primary, John Kerry and Vice President John Edwards, who remained largely absent during the process, announced officially that he would not run again as Vice President. Instantly, speculation began over who Kerry would select as his running mate. Many supporters thought the only choice was Howard Dean, as a true way of unifying the Democratic party, but Dean ruled himself out of contention from the start.

Immediately the shortlist included: Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, DNC Chair Jeanne Shaheen and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Randell. Kerry said his choice would be announced at August Convention. While Kerry and the Democrats readied for their convention Denver, Romney and the Republican headed to St. Paul, with a clear message: Romney means Change, Kerry means more of the same.

On his shortlist, the presumptive nominee revealed he was considering: Former rival and Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawletny, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, New Hampshire Senator John Sununu, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

Republicans Nominate Romney

The Republican Ticket: Romney-Pawlenty

Mitt Romney announced his selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. It was seen as a smart pick by Romney, who looked to sure up the conservative base of the party, while also picking someone who appealed to what the pundits described as "Sam-Club Republicans". While Romney could appeals to businesses and speak on his own experiences a turn-around expertise, Pawlenty could take a more populist approach, plus it balanced the ticket and was seen a boost to Romney in the midwest.

ROMNEY: Kerry has 'failed America'; promises to begin anew

In his acceptance speech, watched by an estimated 35 million people, Mitt Romney lambasted John Kerry for the weakening economy, mishandling the wars in the Middle East and being aloof when it comes to leadership. "President Kerry made us a lot of promises four years and when we look at this record and can judge him on his promise, we're left with a sad conclusion, President Kerry has failed America...we've been settling these past four years and now it is time to turn the page and begin anew."

Republicans left energized and united behind the Romney-Pawlenty ticket and with a clear lead in the polls. Democrats headed to Denver, where John Kerry that Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be his running mate. The pick energized a party sorely need it and changed the dynamics of the race. At the convention went after Romney, calling him 'a lover of big business and enabler of crony capitalism'. They attacked his business record and his apparent flip flops on abortion and gay marriage.

Kerry Looks to Rebuild Crumbling Party

'...my friends we are a nation that Mitt Romney calls failed. He says we're adrift. Well, fellow Democrats it's Mitt Romney who has a record of failure, it's Mitt Romney who's adrift. His strategy is to tare you down to build himself up. He believes the only way to win is to divide Americans, where Kathleen Sebelius and I want to unite Americans."

Democrats left Denver with their spirits as the two Massachusetts natives looked ready for a political showdown. Romney had his negatives, his perception as a flip flopper and over his business career. Kerry's negatives were the sinking economy and questions of his own leadership.

Gallup Poll: September 2008

(D) John Kerry: 47%

(R) Mitt Romney: 46%

[NHI]

The Fight

Gallup Tracking Poll:

(D) John Kerry: 48%
(R) Mitt Romney: 46%

John Kerry, successful in his primary fight and after unified convention, with Democrats praising his attacks on Mitt Romney, the 44th President of the United States took to the campaign trail with a renewed vigor. Polls showed it was looking to be a close race -- possibly, if not probably closer than four years earlier. Kerry, was the underdog, despite a successful convention, there were still lingering questions over his own leadership and the weakening economy. Campaign operatives believed the only way to win the election was to make a choice between Kerry and Romney, for an election as a referendum would most surely result in a loss.

Strangely enough, John Kerry and his campaign had been preparing to run against John Mccain or Rudy Giuliani and were quite surprised when Mitt Romney caught fire and ended up securing the nomination. Kerry, who knew Romney as the Governor of Massachusetts, did not seriously believe he could ever win a national election. While Kerry had been dogged as a flip-flopper by Republicans and George W. Bush in 2004, that label had largely faded, as Kerry won the election in his own right. While unprepared to face Romney at first, the Democrats wasted no time in trying to define their opponent as a friend of the rich, a flip-flopper on issues of abortion and gay marriage and as someone who could not be trusted.

"For us the trust issue was key. Voters liked Romney's background in business. His turnaround of the Olympics in Salt Lake was a positive. They saw him as someone who understood the economy and could fix it. So in that regard we were weak, voters saw us as letting them down and for presiding over a crumbling economy. We decided the best thing was to play the election as a choice between two visions and narrowing that down further as who do you trust, who has your back." -- Mark Penn.

Former President Bill Clinton strongly urged John Kerry to take on Romney on the basis of character, that questions about his business record would backfire. "Defeating Romney can be a simple as: Who is this guy, can you trust him? He's slick which can be both bad and good." As the month of September got under way Kerry's number slowly began to climb. Coming out the convention he led Romney by an average of one point in most polls and now was slowly inching towards a 2-3 point lead. Sensing the momentum shifting, the Romney campaign doubled down blasting Kerry's handling of the economy.

From the start of the campaign, campaign manager Matt Rhodes declared the election to be about the economy and for Romney to win he needed to play up his strength, which was Kerry's weakness. "It's about jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs," Mitt Romney said on the stump. "President Kerry hasn't delivered for America, it's time to give him a pink slip."

Both camps knew the debates would be consequential. For Kerry, a chance to cement his regained sense of momentum and for Romney to deliver a knockout punch. Certainly, the stakes were higher for Romney who needed to prove he could go toe-to-toe with the sitting President of the United States.

[NHI]

The economy, which had slowly been becoming a more important issue to voters, took center stage in mid September as the United States and the rest of the world watched as the great financial institutions suffered a massive meltdown. The country officially entered a recession and as Wall Street crumbled Americans looked to Washington. Instantly, Republicans saw this is moment as the perfect opportunity to lambast Kerry for presiding over the worst economy since the Great Depression, but the Romney Campaign held back from targeting the President, at least at first. Mitt Romney took to responding on the crisis with a statement, calling 'it a serious situation, and urged that both Democrats and Republicans needed to put aside partisan difference and work together for the good of the country."

President Kerry immediately called on Congress to act and urged the passing of a $700B bailout package for the financial industry, as well as a possible stimulus package to jump start the economy, but the Republican Controlled Congress showed little interest in helping the incumbent Democratic President. The original bill failed in the House and Kerry took to the stump blasting Republicans for obstructionism and for hurting the American economy and all Americans.

Romney, ultimately joined in calling for the passage of the bill, but took aim at President Kerry on the eve of their first debate saying "we find ourselves in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and that's not just me saying that. Poll after poll finds that more Americans are feeling squeezed and believe the country's in a recession. Take no further look than at the world around us. It's time for a change in Washington and it's start with electing a new President in the White House."

Kerry's campaign wasted no time attacking Romney, hoping to associate Romney's business career with the same type of failures that caused the economic crisis. Kerry, also looked to stress experience over change. "Change for change sake is not the answer my friends. We can change, but we'd be returning to what we left four years ago." In what some pundits described as an all of the above strategy, the Kerry campaign looked to tying Romney as a retread of Bush, hitting him on his business career and painting him as someone who was out of touch and couldn't be trusted.

Romney Takes it to Kerry

In their first debate, stakes were incredibly high. Americans were looking for resolve and clarity. Romney needed to demonstrate he was up to the ask, while Kerry needed to prove he could effectively handle and solve the crisis. Romney wasted no time going after Kerry in the first debate. In a debate, originally slated to focus entirely on foreign policy, economics became the central focus. Romney blasted Kerry over the state of the economy, and laughed off charges by Kerry that he was out of touch. "The President thinks I'm out of touch, because I've made a lot of money and I've been successful. Well, I have been successful Mr. President, but don't make this a one sided note, you too are very wealthy, you too have been successful. Rather than attacking me, why not tell the American people exactly how we're going to get out of this crisis, because going after me will not help struggling people find a job, or put food on the table, or put kids through college."

The President attacked Congress for failing to pass the bailout program and tried to tie Romney with the Republican Congress, and while Kerry gave a gallant effort, pundits, viewers and polls declared Romney won the debate -- decisively. Voters originally gave Romney a small lead on the question of who best would be able to handle the economy, after the debate, Romney trounced Kerry 47 percent to 38 percent.

Still Democrats refused to go quietly into the night. They continued their relentless assault on Romney's business record and painting him as an elitist out of touch with the average voter.

Yet, on the stump Republican Vice Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty took Kerry head-on. Proving him to be a successful attack dog for the campaign, Pawlenty blasted Kerry's attack on Romney's wealth. "Mitt Romney has been successful yes. He's made a lot of money yes. But so too has John Kerry. The President is a very wealthy man, but there is a difference. Mitt Romney earned his money the old fashioned way through hard work, John Kerry earned his money by marrying his wife. I mean get with the program Mr. President, it's time to ketchup." In the crowd and at different rallies across the country crowds began to chant: "Ketchup- Ketchup" and some even held up bottles of Heinz Ketchup.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Late September 2007 (Post- Debate 1)

(R) Mitt Romney: 49% (+3)
(D) John Kerry: 46%

Who do Voters Trust to Handle the Economy? Late September 2007

(R) Mitt Romney: 47%
(D) John Kerry: 38%

Who do Voters Trust to Handle Foreign Policy? Late September 2007

(D) John Kerry: 45%
(R) Mitt Romney: 41%

Who do Voters Believe is most likely to bring about 'Change' in Washington? September 2007

(R) Mitt Romney: 48%

(D) John Kerry: 42%

What is more important to Voters: Change or Experience? Late September 2007

Change: 46%

Experience: 43%

President John Kerry: Approval Rating Late September 2007

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 49%

Undecided/No Opinion: 11%

Governor Mitt Romney: Likeability Late September 2007

Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 39%
Undecided/No Opinion: 15%

Electoral Map: 2008

Mitt Romney: 227

John Kerry: 211
Undecided: 100

2004 Results: Close States

Ohio: 0.55%

√ (D) John Kerry: 50.00%

(R) George W. Bush: 49.45%

Iowa: 0.57%

√ (D) John Kerry: 49.60%

(R) George W. Bush: 49.03%

New Mexico: 0.79%

√ (R) George W. Bush: 49.71%

(D) John Kerry: 48.92%

Florida: 1.01%

√ (R) George W. Bush: 50.00%

(D) John Kerry: 48.99%

New Hampshire: 1.64%

√ (D) John Kerry: 50.13%

(R) George W. Bush: 48.49%

[NHI]

Shutting it Down

Congress ultimately passed the bailout package and President Kerry signed it immediately. However, he remained defiant in his chiding over Republican obstructionism in Congress and as some analyst put it, "he's trying put the noose their neck, but his have a difficult time removing it form his own. Kerry owns this economy. He is the President." His aides and advisers crafted a strategy running against Congress, a la Harry Truman in 1948. Campaign operatives saw some movement from voters towards them in presenting Romney as untrustworthy. Yet, no matter what they did, the economy was poised to worsen not improve and Kerry's political life hung in the balance over it.

Liberal pundits declared that the election would be decided on a knife's edge. Even with the crumbling economy, voters weren't flocking to Romney's campaign, but at the same time, Kerry wasn't gaining many independents needed for reelection. Some conservative commentators painted the election in a similar lens as 1980 or even 1932. Karl Rove, blasted Kerry for the worst economy since the Great Depression and argued that with all the problems Romney was heading towards a comfortable and inevitable election.

Confident as they were, and as rewarding as the intensity of tracking polls showed, Mitt Romney and his staff were taking nothing for granted. In the days and weeks following their first debates, Romney maintained on average two-three point lead. One Gallup poll immediately after the debate had him up by six points (50-44%). But, Romney always regarded snapshots as a moment in time and to be treated lightly at best. He, after all was not the leader in the polls when he ran for the nomination and yet he ultimately managed to topple both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. "He is the President of the United States," Romney said in a strategy session, "and taking down an incumbent President is no small feat, even with the situation we find ourselves in."

The remaining debates proved to be draws at best. Kerry rebounded in the second, attacking Romney as a man of wealth and someone who in a strange way represented the type of 'systematic failure we're seeing with regards to our economy today." Romney's focus was two prong. One blame the economy on Kerry's stewardship and two present himself as the Mr. Fix-it type who could get America's economy going and restore again.

The Vice Presidential Debate was most historic than consequential. For the first time since 1984, a woman stood on the stage as a Vice Presidential contender. Both Tim Pawlenty and Kathleen Sebeilus stuck to their campaign talking points and neither one made any gaffes. In the polls conducted afterwards, voters tended to respond well to Seblieus, who was more on the offensive, while Pawlenty received strong points for taking the fight not to Seblieus, but to Kerry.

In the third and final Presidential debate John Kerry and Mitt Romney made their closing remarks. Kerry stressed steadiness in times of great change and uncertainty, while Romney responded in Reagan-esque fashion putting it to the American people: "The question before us today is are we better off as a people and as a country than at the time President Kerry took office? Regrettably, the majority of us will answer no..."

Polls tightened somewhat in the final stretch of the election, with both Romney and Kerry trading off with leads or coming up in a dead heat. Campaign internal polls on the Republican side showed Romney ahead and probably winning by 3-4 points, while Kerry's numbers indicated a much closer race.(0.5-2 points at best). In 2004, John Kerry narrowly ousted George Bush by twenty electoral votes and a sliver in the popular vote. Similarly, eight years earlier, one candidate narrowly one the electoral vote, while the other narrowly one the popular vote. Regardless of their internal numbers both Romney and Kerry knew the election would go down to the wire and both men prepared themselves and their families for what was expected to be a roller coaster election night.

RCP Average: November 3, 2008 (Romney +0.2)

(R) Mitt Romney: 48.9%
(D) John Kerry: 48.7%

[NHI]

Election Day: America Votes

John Kerry and Mitt Romney finished their final rallies of the campaign in different spots across the country. Kerry in Ohio, Romney in New Hampshire, but both men would be returning to Massachusetts to cast their votes and to join their supporters later that evening at their respective Election Night Victory rallies, located in Boston.

Kerry and Romney casts their votes early

The President would spend Election Day in Boston, while Mitt Romney, who after voting jetted off to Ohio and Pennsylvania for one last 'surprise rally of the day'. Romney visited campaign offices in both states, spoke to his supporters and then headed back to Massachusetts by early evening as votes across the country were starting to come in. Exit polls showed an increasingly close race and both campaigns prepared themselves for what was expected to be a long and perhaps drawn out night. "We're ready," Romney said to his staff shortly before the polls closed at 7 pm on the east coast. "We've given it everything."

The Electoral Map at 7 pm EST

JOHN KERRY: 0 (0%)

MITT ROMNEY: 0 (0%)

At 7pm the polls closed in six states and immediately projections could be made. Kerry as expected won the state of Vermont and quite handily over Romney (taking 59 percent to Romney's 39 percent). Traditional GOP strongholds like Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina all went to the Romney column. Georgia remained too early to call for a period of time, but ultimately went for Romney. The state of Virginia, a relatively reliably state remained closer than expected, though Romney was ahead of Kerry; enough to cause Republicans a sigh of relief. (52-47 percent).

Here stood the map by 8:45 pm. Romney with a small lead in both the electoral and popular votes, but not enough to declare him the winner, just yet. Massachusetts, the home state of both men remained closer than expected and remained uncalled for well over an hour after the polls closed. Ultimately the state went to Kerry, albeit closer than the state had gone for him four years earlier or any Democratic candidates in decades. (56% - 43%).

MITT ROMNEY: 86 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 62 (48%)

Virginia, ultimately fell in line towards the nine-thirty range and every major network projected Romney the winner in New Hampshire, a blow to the Kerry campaign, as they carried the state four years prior. Kansas and Colorado proved to be true battlegrounds. The presence of Kathleen Seblieus made both states closer, a move the Kerry campaign saw as potentially saving them, should states like Florida and Ohio go the Republican's way.

MITT ROMNEY: 172 (52%)

JOHN KERRY: 112 (47%)

As the clock approached ten o'clock, Romney continued to hold onto his lead in the electoral vote and started to expand his margins in the popular vote as well. Still, states like Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan remained too close to call. In Minnesota the polls showed Kerry leading by the narrowest of margins (51.0% - 48.7%) while in Michigan, (Romney's birth state, and where his father George served as Governor) put Romney ahead of Kerry. (50.9% - 48.3%).  With the economic crisis and Romney's roots in the state the campaign invested heavily, even launching his presidential campaign there from the start. It proved successful, while close Michigan went for Romney, the first time the state voted Republican for President in twenty years.

Michigan going for Romney created a sense of changing dynamics and pundits across the board began to sense that things were starting to look good for Mitt Romney. "He tapped into frustrations with Washington and people's fears over the economy and said I'm here to help and we'll get through this," Chris Matthews said on MSNBC. "If he wins tonight, and it's not over yet, because four years ago everyone thought Bush had it in the bag and he nearly did until Ohio went for Kerry, but if things remain as they are then this is a big deal."

Minnesota, even with Pawlenty on the ticket looked a reach for the Republicans, but it remained undecided for the longest time. Fortunately, for the Democratic Wisconsin didn't bend to Republican winds and went for Kerry, allowing the Kerry campaign to breathe a little more easily as they awaited the eleven o'clock closings. Pennsylvania remained outstanding, but the Kerry campaign could count on the electoral votes of Washington, Oregon Hawaii and California to build them up. All four states went for Kerry.

Kansas remained Republican, though like Pawlenty in Minnesota Sebelius helped make it closer (55%- 44%). Colorado, despite the Democrat's holding their convention there remained in the Republican's lock. As expected the election looked to come down to Florida and Ohio, both states put Romney ahead, but it was close. A little after eleven Iowa, another Kerry state from 2004 tumbled and went for Romney.

MITT ROMNEY: 247 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 200 (48%)

Romney's lead remained unbreakable and soon the realizations began to hit the Democrats and the Kerry Campaign, that the end was in sight. At 11:48 pm, eastern standard time the state of Ohio went for Governor Romney, putting at precisely 267 electoral votes, three votes shy of the 270 needed to become President. The Kerry Campaign saw the writing on the wall, but did not concede, first wanting to see if Romney crossed the threshold and if it would hold. Already, some Democrats began the talks of contesting the results, depending on the margins.

But it did not last long. Shortly before midnight, 11:51 to be exact, the networks followed in the footsteps of the Associated Press and called the election for Mitt Romney, after the AP's projection of Florida for the former Massachusetts Governor.

MITT ROMNEY ELECTED PRESIDENT

√ MITT ROMNEY: 294 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 200 (48%)

It would prove a comfortable margin of victory. Romney would win both New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry would retain Minnesota though by a narrow margin. (49.7% - 49.3%). Pennsylvania would remain undecided and faced an automatic recount, as the final tally was less that 0.5%. Originally Kerry led with 49.51% to Romney's 49.46%. The state remained uncalled until mid November, but ultimately went for Governor Romney, by the narrow margin of 49.52% - 49.50%, but the win was a historic nonetheless, as it was the first time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the Keystone State since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

√ MITT ROMNEY: 328 (51.0%)

JOHN KERRY: 210 (47.6%)

[NHI]

ROMNEY: A better America Begins Tonight

Pundits attributed Mitt Romney's election down to two factors: The economy and Kerry's leadership. In an election that many predicted would close, wound up not being that close at all. Romney soundly defeated Kerry in the electoral college and beat him by three percent in the popular vote. It was the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush. It was one of the worst defeats for an incumbent President and along with Romney's win Republicans increased their margins in the House and Senate, further cementing the significance of his win.

Democrats immediately began finger point, with much of the criticism being lobbied at Howard Dean for challenging John Kerry, believing it divided the party and weakened Kerry, eating up precious time that could have otherwise been devoted to messaging and keeping the Republicans on the defensive. Still, voter's number one issue was the economy and for Romney he proved to be at the right place at the right time and voters rallied to his campaign.

For President Kerry, just as he had four years ago, he spoke to his supporters Boston's historic Faneuil Hall where he concede and pledged his support to Governor Romney, whom he addressed as "President-Elect". Kerry was gracious and thankful to his supporters. Just four years ago, he won the White House by won of the narrowest margins and now four years hence he was ousted by a big margin than by what he originally won by.

[NHI]

Romney: Believe in America

Mitt Romney took office, facing the worst economic crisis since The Great Depression. Unemployment was approaching eight percent, the financial industry was on rocky ground, the auto industry was on the verge of becoming nonexistent and two wars in the middle east raged on. Dramatic action was needed. In his inaugural address, echoing FDR, Romney declared: "We need action and action now, to resolve this crisis swiftly and boldly; Democrats and Republican will need to come together for the good of this country, for the sake of our country, for the survival of our way of life...I have every confidence that our best days are ahead and that is because I believe wholeheartedly in the spirit and resilience of the American people!"

Americans responded well to Mitt Romney's address, and he entered office with a 55 percent approval rating. With the economy bleeding, Romney went to work. He helped push through Congress a tax cut for middle class families and small businesses, aimed at jump starting the economy. Romney also, championed a stimulus package. Romney also signed into law an energy bill that would later be known as the Keystone Pipeline, aimed at making America energy independent, as well as opening up a new sector for jobs.

Romney toured the country a lot during his first year, holding a series of town halls, where he talked with Republicans and Democrats over issues facing the country. A continuation of his campaign style town hall format, "Ask Mitt Anything" took the President from California, to Texas to Illinois, to Michigan, to New Hampshire, to New Jersey, to Florida and Alaska.

The economy saw subtle improvement during the course of Romney's first year. Unemployment spiked somewhat over the spring and summer, hitting 10 percent, but by the end of the year returned to single digit levels, hoovering at around 8 percent.

As the year came to the close Romney and his advisers began looking seriously at the nation's healthcare problem, an issue he talked about during the course of the campaign, but one which did not receive much focus when the economy soured. Sensing an opportunity before the midterm election truly got underway, Romney looked to bring healthcare to the forefront, echoing many of the same components he championed as Governor of Massachusetts, when his state became the first in the nation to provide universal healthcare to it's citizens. He now looked to do what he did for Massachusetts for America.

Some conservatives in his party were not wild about the idea, so the President knew he would ultimately have to turn to Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy for support, however, Kennedy died in 2009, leaving a void in the United States Senate. Replacing Kennedy would fall to Romney's successor in Massachusetts Governor Kerry Healey, who appointed State Senator Scott Brown to fill the remainder of Kennedy's term. (Brown would now join senior Senator Charlie Baker, who was appointed to replace John Kerry when he became President. Baker won the seat in his own right in 2008, becoming the first Republican Senator since Edward Brooke).

To his advisers Romney knew healthcare would be a challenge to pass, citing the debacle of the Clinton experience in the 90s, but Romney knew in the end it would pay off and as a his Chief of Staff Mike Levitt said, "If this works like it did in Massachusetts, your reelection is sealed."

[NHI]

United States Congress: Makeup

History:Senate 2006 Republicans: 55 Democrats: 44 Independent: 1
2008: Republicans: 56 Democrats: 42 Independent: 2

History: House 2006 Republicans: 233 Democrats: 202
2008: Republicans: 236 Democrats: 198

[NHI]

Democrats Win Back The House

Running on the still relatively weak economy Democrats were able to win back the House of Representatives, while making in roads in the Senate. Nancy Pelosi, succeeded John Boehner to become the first female Speaker of the House. Pelosi was credited with focusing the Democrat's campaign on making the election about Romney and the Republican Congress.

President Romney's Approval Rating: January 2011

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 43%
Undecided/No Opinion: 9%

While Romney bore the brunt for the Democrat's winning back the House, ending the GOP's sixteen year lock on the House, with some conservatives including Rush Limbaugh calling for a conservative challenge to Romney in 2012. While Romney and Republicans didn't know it at the time, the Democrat's historic return to the House of Representatives would be a blessing in disguise for the President heading into 2012.

[NHI]

2012 Democratic Primary Poll: December 2010

Howard Dean: 24%
Hillary Clinton: 22%
Kathleen Seblieus: 17%
Barack Obama: 15%
Martin O'Malley: 7%
Undecided: 15%

[NHI]

General Election Polling: Jan, 2011

MITT ROMNEY: 52% (+8)

HOWARD DEAN: 44%

MITT ROMNEY: 51% (+7)

KATHLEEN SEBLIEUS: 44%

MITT ROMNEY: 51% (+6)

HILLARY CLINTON: 45%

MITT ROMNEY: 50% (+6)

BARACK OBAMA: 44%

[NHI]

No Warning Shot

Pelosi: Our top political priority will be to deny President Romney a Second Term

Romney: Posturing and nitpicking is not leadership

Democrats derailed the President's attempt at healthcare reform. It narrowly passed the Senate, but died in the House, with Speaker Pelosi addressing the bill as, "watered down and pointless." The next big fight of 2011 came as the United States government stared down the barrel of a government shutdown. Democrats in the House refused to back President Romney's budget which included tax cuts and reductions in spending. Immediately, the flood gates opened with Democrats threatening "to shut down the whole government." Romney and Republicans argued that the bill paid down the nation's deficit while reducing taxes, a move some Democrats, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said was "reprehensible to the middle class!"

Fortunately, at the 11th hour the US avoided a shutdown with the passing of a budget, that left both sides disgruntled. Still, Romney praised Congress for averting a government shutdown, though the ordeal damaged Romney's approval rating, bringing his numbers to 42 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

With Romney seemingly on the ropes and government dysfunction at an all time high Democratic contenders for the Presidency took their first steps towards the nomination. Challenger to John Kerry in 2004, Howard Dean launched a third consecutive bid for the White House, lambasting Romney for presiding over an economy of dismal results and gridlock in Washington. "President Romney is without course and without direction, so let's sending packing. Let's get him back on the right course, home to Massachusetts. It's time to retire this President!"

Despite his critics, who credited him for losing the election for John Kerry Howard Dean ran to the top of the pack, though it was a soft lead as most Democrats were waiting to see if the two big guns would enter the race: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton was widely considered to be planning a presidential bid. She made key trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, campaigning for candidates during the midterm election. She delivered the Democratic Response to Mitt Romney's State of the Union in 2010 and positioned herself as a strong critic of the President, while in the Senate.

However, Former President Bill Clinton seemed to dispel any idea of a Clinton candidacy - or any successful Democratic candidacy in 2012, admitting in an interview on Meet The Press, that the Democrats would need to be unified like never before, for defeating Mitt Romney would be no easy feat. "We've now ousted two incumbent Presidents back to back, that's not happened since Ford and Carter, so the country is in a volatile place, but that doesn't mean he's easily beaten. Everyone says look his numbers are bad, he's going to be a one termer, well David people said that about in '94 and '95...polls are a snapshot so I'd be cautious about people saying Romney's done."

Hillary Clinton would ultimately decided against a bid, announcing in the spring of 2011, that she would remain in the Senate and run for reelection in 2012. In her absence, other Democrats looked to enter the fray. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh declared his campaign in June of 2011, as did Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley. The media described the field as 'lackluster' with Chris Matthews pointing that, "the Democrats don't have any superstar. We need star power, I mean even just a little and it'll do wonders against Mitt Romney."

However, even with Romney's approval ratings in the mid 40s Democrats seemed reluctant to line up to take him on. The reason, despite the fragile economy, unemployment had dipped by June of 2011 to 8.0 percent and many Democrats feared a quasi-"Morning in America" campaign from the Massachusetts Republican. By mid-summer Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer jumped into the mix, bringing a sense of fun and character to the race, though few believed he could actually win the nomination, let alone the election.

Some Democrats pinned their hopes on Barack Obama, the rising star Senator from Illinois who won the hearts of Democrats everywhere with his keynote speech at the DNC in 2004, but the Senator seemed reluctant to enter the race. At only fifty he still had years ahead of him to make a run for the Presidency and as he said to himself, "why run against an incumbent and lose, because after that -- that's it." His strategist and friend David Axelrod thought differently, seeming to prod Obama towards challenging Romney. "There's a void in the party. There is no clear candidate, no favorite. You could come in and really shake things up. This could be your moment."

The idea of 2012 being his moment appealed to Obama, but he had to think practically. Though, he had no doubts he would all but win the nomination, his sights looked to the general election, where the climate would be much more difficult. "If things improve and Romney runs like Ronald Reagan we'd be best to put up a sacrificial lamb and come back in '16, and even if things are only somewhat better it's still an uphill fight." Obama realized the difficulty in the moment, Americans despite their wild election mood swings, did not seem ready to throw Mitt Romney out -- just yet.

As Obama waffled and pondered throughout the winter and spring one Democrat waited no time entering, former Kansas Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Kathleen Sebelius. As the first serious female contender her entrance into the race attracted a lot of headlines and instantly she passed Dean to become the frontrunner.

Romney Kicks-off Reelection Campaign in NH

Romney waited until early July to launch his campaign for reelection. In his speech, he cited the improving economy and that America was on the road to recovery. "Now is not the time to retreat. Now is the time to keep moving forward, to build that America we want. I need your help and I ask you to stand with me one more time."

Democratic Nomination Poll: August 2011

Kathleen Sebelius: 26%
Howard Dean: 20%
Evan Bayh: 15%
Martin O'Malley: 11%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%
Undecided: 19%

In late July Dennis Kucinich would throw his hat into the ring, citing dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates, but like in 2004, he struggled in the polls, managing to get no higher than between 3 and 5 percent. By the end of summer the field looked to be settled with the top tier coming down to Sebelius and Dean, with Bayh looking to knock either one of them off and take second. The problem for Democrats was the lack of passion.

In Dean many Democrats blamed him for their loss in 2004 and in Sebelius a similar 'loser label" was attached. While exciting draws in their respective campaigns of the past, both were seen dull the second and third time around. Sebelius was proving uninspiring and Dean seemed to lack the passion he had in both his previous campaigns. Bayh, while respectable could not manage to break into the top two and also faced a charisma gap.

Democrats were beginning to fret. Their top two candidates were running lackluster campaigns at best and none of the other candidates seemed to be catching fire. There was an effort to draft Wesley Clark into running, but the former general passed on a second bid for the White House. Even mention of Al Gore circulated for a week or more, illustrating the Democrat's frustration with the current crop. Hillary Clinton was asked, but passed, "no thanks." Soon, all eyes fell to Barack Obama.

Obama had remained on the fence throughout the spring and summer. At one point it looked like he might be entering the race, but he whiffed and remained on the sidelines, watching as the field emerged. Democrats began calling to him, urging him to run. In an interview on Meet the Press, Obama responded to the sentiments, but again remained indecisive on running. Finally in late August, right before Labor Day, Obama convened a meeting with his family to announce his decision. Originally, at the start of the year he expressed no interest or desire in running for President, but throughout the year he continued to think about running, but remained on the fence. Finally, seeing the relatively weak field, he deemed himself the only Democrat that could save the Democrats -- from themselves!

To great fanfare and surprise, Barack Obama entered the race for President shortly Labor Day weekend, kicking off his campaign in Iowa, before traveling to New Hampshire and South Carolina. Instantly, his presence jump started the race and he rocketed to the head of the polls, either tying with Sebelius or leading her.

"We've found our guy," Chris Matthews said after the Democrat announced he was indeed running. "He's late, he'll have some ground to makeup, but he can do it, because this guy has the magic and prowess and oratorical skill we've not seen in generation if ever. He's the real deal."

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: Sept. 2011

Barack Obama: 28%
Kathleen Sebelius: 20%
Howard Dean: 15%
Evan Bayh: 12%
Martin O'Malley: 9%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%

[NHI]

Romney: Let the Games Begin

While the Democrats seemed to have found their candidate in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and his campaign were secretly thrilled. In surveying the field before Obama's entry they deemed Bayh as the most serious contender, assuming he could win the nomination. From the start they believed Sebelieus was a non-starter, and Dean, who might win a the primary, lacked the stamina or talent for a national campaign. Barack Obama changed the dynamics of the race, but in a good way for the Republican.

They believed first Obama's late entry into the race would be a disadvantage, campaign seasons were starting earlier and earlier and to enter the primary four months before the Iowa Caucuses left the Illinois Democrat with a lot of ground to cover. Assuming he secured the nomination, which the Romney campaign believed was all but a given, he would be an easier opponent. While, they acknowledged the historical nature of his potential candidacy he was a political lightweight. Obama ducked the tough issues in the Senate, often voting present or was absent. He refused to take a stand on important issues and was as campaign manager Beth Myers put it: "An old-fashioned liberal." Immediately, the President and his team began hitting the likely nominee, for his voting record and lack of experience.

"He's in a field comprised of Governors, he's a Senator and a mediocre one at best."
As Romney and his campaign looked to the general and the Democrats looked to the caucuses the campaigns began preparing for the fights to come, though no one quite expected the journey the 2012 race would ultimately become...

[NHI]

Hard Times for Obama

The Democratic Frontrunner, with such promise stumbled out of the gate. Much hope and expectations were placed on Barack Obama's candidacy, but the Illinois from the start ran a lackluster campaign, coupled with multiple gaffes in the early debates and the lack of organization the once rising star in the Democratic party seemed to have fizzled out.

"The issue was he started to late. You can't jump into a Presidential campaign on the final leg before the primaries. Fred Thompson tried in 2008 and he failed. People make the Reagan comparison, in 1979, but Reagan was a different candidate, he was established, Obama, while a good speaker doesn't have the recognition Reagan had and more importantly American 2011 is different than America 1979, campaigns have changed, the style and tone and planning and pacing are all different today. It's a 24 hour process, it's an eighteen month ordeal." -- James Carville quoted in the book, "Decision in America: Election 2012".

Sebelius Makes up Ground

Kathleen Sebelius looked to benefit with Obama stumbling, but she was by no means the favorite. She knew her campaign depended on success or failure in Iowa. She poured all her resources into the state, outpacing Dean and neighboring rival Evan Bayh, still numbers showed a tight race.

Obama's Ted Kennedy Moment

In what was expected to be a soft-ball interview with ABC's Diane Sawyer one month before the Iowa Caucuses, Diane Sawyer asked Barack Obama "What would America be like under President Obama?" What followed was a long, rambling answer that did not get to the heart of the question. Obama seemed to dance around the question, instantly causing pundits to relate the moment to Roger Mudd's interview with Ted Kennedy, when the late Massachusetts Democrat failed to articulate on the reasons he wanted to be President.

The interview hurt the campaign, when they needed a win. After a series of poor debate performances, shortly after Thanksgiving Obama delivered a knockout in New Hampshire, channeling the Obama of 2004, he looked to move America past the era of 'red states and blue states'. "It's time for a new kind of politics," he said, but a few short weeks later everything seemed to be coming undone. Obama's poll numbers which were growing soft as the pre-primary season carried on started to sink, with Sebelius moving to the top of the pack, along with Evan Bayh.

Howard Dean even looked poised for comeback. Low on funds and glaring at poor polling in Iowa, Dean made the decision to move his campaign to New Hampshire and focus entirely on the Granite State. Four years earlier he narrowly defeated President Kerry in the primary and hoped he could tap into the same kind of luck again. Dean was aware of the costs, betting the farm on New Hampshire would either prove a stroke of brilliance or damn foolish. Dean was willingly to take the bet.

[NHI]

Very good TL; keep it up.

Is Obama's 2012 run suppose to be analogous to Rick Perry's?

In a way, yes. 2008 was an exceptional year and Obama managed to punch all the right buttons at the right. I think it's fair to say had he not run in '08 he might not have become President, in many ways circumstances both domestically and internationally brought him to the presidency.

[NHI]

Obama Camp. Holds Breath on Iowa

In the days leading up to the Iowa Caucuses, it looked as though the nomination was slipping away from the Barack Obama. Evan Bayh and Kathleen Sebelius were fighting for first and at best the Obama team hoped for third. They ran a crappy campaign; there was no denying it. In the back of his mind Obama was regretting his late-entry campaign for President. Some of his advisers, including his wife Michelle were refusing to give up. She thought Obama could hold on until South Carolina, where he would be able to relaunch his campaign with a win there. Polls showed him still leading there and it looked like Iowa and New Hampshire were going to produce separate winners, but Obama was not convinced.

Running unopposed President Romney kept his focus on the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. They were banking on a Sebelius win and given the poor nature of Obama's campaign, this team began looking towards a possible showdown with the former VP candidate. "Let's let the Democrats battle it out," Romney said. "I'll stick with governing the country."

AP: IOWA CAUCUSES TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Kathleen Sebelius: 23.13%
Evan Bayh: 23.06%
Barack Obama: 18.11%
Howard Dean: 15.25%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.46%
Martin O'Malley: 4.77%
Dennis Kucinich: 2.22%
Other: 1.0%

The Iowa Caucuses proved to be a closer than expected! Sebelius and Bayh trade leads back and forth throughout the night. Obama conceded defeat earlier. He trailed Bayh by almost five points and signaled disappointment, but pledged to move on.

AP: Bayh Addresses Supporters, Doesn't Concede

Shortly after midnight on the east coast, Evan Bayh addressed his supporters, all but declaring victory. With 98 percent of the vote in, Sebelius led with 0.2 percent. Already both campaigns were looking at possible recounts. "This is a squeaker, win or lose this campaign is energized and we're going on,!"

IOWA CAUCUSES: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Evan Bayh: 23.112%
Kathleen Sebelius: 23.111%
Barack Obama: 18.07%
Howard Dean: 15.27%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.40%
Martin O'Malley: 4.90%
Dennis Kucinich: 2.12%
Other: 1.0%

IOWA CAUCUSES: REPUBLICAN 100% Reported

√ Mitt Romney: 95.4%

Other: 4.6%

Bayh was ultimately declared the winner at 1:29 EST, winning the caucuses by 0.001 percent. Sebelius conceded defeat and did not contest the results. In the wake of Iowa, Martin O'Malley ended his campaign and endorsed Evan Bayh. Dennis Kucinich, also bowed out and endorsed Howard Dean, calling him "the best man in the race, by far." The New Hampshire Primary looked to be contentious. Howard Dean's narrow lead had all but evaporated and both Bayh and Sebelius surged in the Granite State.

Obama was polling between third and fourth and looked to focus much of his campaign in the South Carolina Primary.

CLINTON ENDORSES BAHY

In New Hampshire, Bayh secured the endorsement of Hillary Clinton, who called on all Democrats to unite behind the Indiana Senator. "He's a proven winner, he's got a record of moderation and progress. He's an independent thinker and he's the one candidate who keeps Mitt Romney up late at night. He's the man we need to lead out party and the one to be the next President of the United States!"

DEAN STRUGGLES IN NH

Howard Dean, once an icon the liberal wing of the party, struggled in New Hampshire, the third time around. His bet to put everything on New Hampshire was coming up short. His rivals blasted him as being erratic and out of step with the party. In one debate Kathleen Sebelius went as so far to say, "He's the reason we have Mitt Romney in the White House right now, instead of John Kerry."

In the final stretch of the primary it looked again to be a contest between Bayh and Sebelius. In the days following Iowa, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who finished fifth in Iowa was slowly creeping up in the Granite State. Heading into the primary he was polling towards third percent, giving his campaign a raised profile and needed momentum heading into the primary

On primary night, Obama came in a distant fifth in the primary -- last place, while Dean ended up in fourth, and acted as the swansong for his campaign. The battle of the night came down to Schweitzer, Bahy and Sebelius. Bayh led with early polls, and had a one point advantage going into the primary, but soon the numbers tightened. Sebelius and Schweitzer battled it out for second and third place. Many in the media were impressed by Schweitzer's late surge and they attributed it to the lack of certainty over the field. For starting out in single digits nationally, he was now running neck and neck with Bayh for first place in the New Hampshire Primary.

"No one is running away with this nomination." -- Chris Matthews on the night of the New Hampshire Primary.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 51% Reported

Evan Bayh: 25.0%

Brian Schweitzer: 24.5%
Kathleen Sebelius: 24.1%
Howard Dean: 14.8%
Barack Obama: 10.6%