1968: Romney vs Humphrey vs Wallace

[Bigby]

In this scenario, Richard Nixon decides in 1967 not to run for the GOP nomination in 1968. George Romney, who was leading in the primary polls until he made the "brain washing" gaffe, never makes that remark ATL and continues to to lead. Rockefeller, since Nixon is not part of the equation in this timeline, opts not to run, leaving Ronald Reagan as Romney's sole challenger. Reagan gives Romney a run for his money, but Romney squeaks by thanks to having a tighter grip on his mouth. After narrowly winning the primary season, Romney is nominated to the Republican Party's ticket for President. He picks 2nd place winner Ronald Reagan of California as a means of unifying with the conservative wing of the party. Romney runs as a moderate who aims to honorably end the war in Vietnam and solve the nation's chaotic domestic situation. He runs a campaign mostly similar to Richard Nixon's OTL campaign, though he does not pursue the "Southern strategy" and is moderately pro-civil rights.

On the Democratic side, the events of real life reoccur in this scenario. Johnson drops out of the race, Robert F. Kennedy is shot and cannot continue his campaign, and Humphrey wins the nomination. Seeing a potential crack in the Dixie wing of the Democrats, Humphrey decides to select the Texan John Connally as his running mate. Robert F. Kennedy survives his assassination attempt, though he falls into a vegetative state while in medical care. The Chicago riots still occur, and might be even worse when convention attendees notice the Vice Presidential nominee is a Southern conservative. Humphrey is also pro-civil rights, but he is more socially and economically liberal than Romney.

Despite Humphrey's choice of John Connally for VP, Wallace feels as if the Democrats are still abandoning the Southerners for black and Yankee voters. Just as in real life, he runs a third party ticket with the intent of casting the election to the House. He plays it safe and chooses Strom Thurmond as his VP nominee. Thurmond officially renounces both mainstream parties and becomes an Independent while still serving in the Senate; he urges other Southern politicians to follow his example. Feeling that the South will go to him anyway, he acts slightly more mainstream, but it's still the same George Wallace. Wallace will condemn both parties as Northern intruders on the average man's, especially the average Southern man's, way of life.

With a less gaffe-prone Romney and the charismatic Ronald Reagan running against the Humphrey/Connally and Wallace/Thurmond tickets, how does the election turn out?

Determine your prediction with these variables:

- Romney, either due to a change in self-discipline or having a more mindful campaign staff, does not spout as many gaffes during the primary and the general election. Keep Romney from ruining his chances thanks to his mouth.
- Romney must keep Reagan and Rockefeller from tearing the party apart. Since Romney is seen more in line with the Rockefeller line, he must work with his running mate Reagan without backstabbing Rockefeller.
- The main difference between OTL Nixon and the Romney of this scenario is that Romney openly supports a moderate stance in favor of increasing Civil Rights. Otherwise, Romney shares many of OTL Nixon's stances during the election.
- Humphrey is mostly the same as OTL, but his choice of Connally for VP instead of Muskie may help in some circles and hope in others. Is Connally more helpful or harmful?
- The Chicago Riots still happen. Are they worse due to the selection of John Connally for VP? Humphrey's handling on what happened is similar to OTL, so liberal and black reaction to Connally may be the deciding factor.
- MLK is still assassinated during this election year. How do the candidates respond? For extra points, include how the VP candidates respond.
- RFK is comatose rather than dead, but he is still out of the picture. However, Ted Kennedy isn't.
- Does Strom Thurmond help Wallace? Also, does Wallace acting somewhat more mainstream aid him any?

I can't wait to see what you all think.

[Bigby]

I have little reason to think that there would be substantial rhetorical difference between Romney and Nixon in regards to civil rights. Rather, I think it would be understood by many Southern politicians, especially in the GOP camp, that Romney was a lot less willing to "play ball" with them, and also lacked any debt to them that Nixon did post-convention (Thurmond likely would have led the Southern delegations in support of Reagan without Nixon). With that in mind, Romney and Nixon would likely have said many of the same things, but the South would nevertheless be less friendly to him.

Would Romney propose any of the "black business" ideas that Nixon did on the campaign trail? I would think he might be more attracted to overall integration as opposed to Nixon's minority-specific business programs that he enacted while President and mentioned during the election.

I also have to wonder if Reagan would be too inexperienced to be chosen for Vice President. Romney may have opted for a moderate Southerner or a Northern conservative instead that already had a few years under their belt--maybe Jim Rhodes, Norris Cotton, Thruston Morton, Roman Hruska, Everett Dirksen, or even Jim Tower of Texas.

I think Romney and Nixon would have somewhat similar rhetoric on Civil Rights, though I think Romney would be more open about his pro-integration stances than Nixon. He definitely wouldn't bother with trying to appeal to southerners, though. Basically, Romney would gain in the North and lose in the South.

I don't see why not about incentives for black businesses. Romney and Nixon were both in favor of expanding HUD for blacks, though Romney was moreso in favor of it than Nixon. If I remember correctly, Romney was Nixon's OTL Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

Reagan's appeal mostly comes from his charisma and reputation as a conservative standard bearer. Sure, there's also Goldwater, but Reagan isn't damaged merchandise like Goldwater was.

[Bigby]

I only ask about the black business stuff because the administration received flak for it from integrationists while there were some radicals who were open to it, as it was viewed as separatism.

In that case, Romney might avoid it if he has suddenly learned not to spew gaffes left and right. He's already got a challenge since the Deep South hates his guts.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I only ask about the black business stuff because the administration received flak for it from integrationists while there were some radicals who were open to it, as it was viewed as separatism.

In that case, Romney might avoid it if he has suddenly learned not to spew gaffes left and right. He's already got a challenge since the Deep South hates his guts.

This is an interesting article I recently read about it (registration for jstor is free).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I expect a bigger difference than Nixon and Romney campaigns on the issue of racial equality would be on the issue of the counter culture and dissatisfaction among youth, both black and white, in contrast to Nixon's law and order push.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney wins narrowly.

The nation is weary of the war and Romney promises to end the war and bring the troops home.

After eight years of Democratic rule, the voters opt for a change of administration, and Romney offers a positive program and demonstrated executive ability, both in the private and public sectors.

Humphrey is still tainted by Johnson, and the nation wants a real change.

Wallace, with Thurmond, improves his standing in the south.

Romney has an excellent relationship with African Americans and this helps him carry such states as New Jersey, Ohio, Florida.  Both the major tickets have conservative Vice Presidential nominees so running with Reagan on the ticket does not hurt Romney in areas where he himself is popular and well liked.  Reagan helps Romney solidify the midwestern, plains, mountain, and western states.

Romney/Reagan                     270
Humphrey/Connally                196
Wallace/Thurmond                   72

[Flake]

Humphrey: 284
Romney: 207
Wallace: 47

[Bigby]

-SNIP-

I'd give most of New England, Michigan, and MAYBE Pennsylvania to Romney, but looks about right. Missouri might tip to Humphrey, and Florida might also tip over as well. Overall, I'd say that's spot-on.

[Lincoln Republican]

-SNIP-

I'd give most of New England, Michigan, and MAYBE Pennsylvania to Romney, but looks about right. Missouri might tip to Humphrey, and Florida might also tip over as well. Overall, I'd say that's spot-on.

Thank you.

Yes, I made a glaring error in my map when I did not give Michigan to Romney.  I overlooked that.  I see no reason Romney would not win Michigan.  He was a very competent, respected, and popular Governor of Michigan, elected three times, the third time with 60.5% of the vote.

As well, without Muskie on the Democratic ticket, as is the case in this scenario, I believe Romney would win Maine, which at the time was a usually reliable Republican state.    

[Mr. Smith]

@Flo: I would switch Ohio to Humphrey and Michigan to Humphrey and Virginia and Tennessee to Wallace.