The UMP is holding its presidential election today, with online voting. We all know Poison Dwarf will win, but the question is how big he wins by and what that means for the future (i.e. the 2016-2017 primary).
The candidates:Nicolas 'Poison Dwarf' Sarkozy: Everybody's favourite crook is back for a spin, rather unambiguously (but not yet explicitly) eyeing the 2017 election, which he really sees as his moment to take his revenge on Flanby, who he really, really despises (calling him "
le petit gros ridicule qui se teint les cheveux" - the little fatty who dyes his hair; or more recently "
ce notaire de province sous antidépresseurs" - the provincial notary on anti-depressants). In the meantime, Sarko needs to control the UMP machinery to quash his rivals ahead of 2017. His much-vaunted 'return', announced in melodramatic terms by Sarko himself ("not only do I feel like it, but I don't have the choice!"), has, however, not gone as well as expected. His campaign was messy, disorganized, lacking direction and a real platform; the candidate has been described as bored, tired and frankly doesn't give a sh**t about the process and just wants to win.
In terms of ideas,
this interview in
Le Figaro gives a good idea. He talks about the left-right cleavage being archaic because he 'talks to all of France', promising a bunch of referendums, reducing taxes and spending, abolishing the ISF, reducing the public sector through attrition, moving towards fixed-term contracts in the public sector, liberalizing working hours, reducing 'welfare dependency', workfare in all but name (ugh), the old threat of 'we get out of Schengen until you renegotiate it', immigration quotas and reforming labour laws. At the 'Sens commun' rally (a meeting of homophobes), he said that he'd repeal gay marriage/adoption, bowing to the pressure of the crowds (a disastrous PR moment). In the party, Sarko still promises an open primary (but obviously wouldn't mind if he could find a way to squash that), changing the party name, abolishing all officials 'courants' (factions) in the UMP and the creation of a single party with the UDI.
Bruno Le Maire: ex-
villepiniste technocrat, he was elected to the National Assembly in 2007 (Eure-1) and was Minister of Agriculture from 2009 to 2012. He's fairly young (45), and is running as a young, moderate reformist who wants to renew and change the party. He wants more democracy in the party (in the form of direct democracy rather than Sarko's Bonapartist plebiscite democracy), is the only one who cares about gender party (the UMP is a notorious sausage fest), an annual audit of party finances and transparency in financial management of the party. He may run in 2017, likely conditional on how he does today. On the political issues, he's similar to the others on economics (the same generic right-wing stuff) except the ISF which he doesn't want to abolish; he is, however, more pro-European (federalism in the Eurozone, European immigration policy and keeping Schengen) and he abstained on gay marriage so he's the only one who isn't a total whackjob here (he wouldn't repeal it but is against surrogacy and assisted reproduction).
He announced a list of 53 parliamentarians who support him - including Damien Abad, Yves Censi, Arnaud Danjean, Georges Ginesta, Anne Grommerch, Jean Leonetti, Edouard Philippe, Arnaud Robinet, Franck Riester, Dominique Tian, Thierry Solère and Didier Quentin.
Hervé Mariton: Deputy for the Drôme since 2002 (and also 1993-1997) and mayor of Crest since 1995. Originally a
villepiniste (but pro-Iraq war), he is very much an economic liberal on the right of the party (he endorsed McCain over Obama in 2008) and is also very socially conservative. He gained some notoriety as being one of the UMP's parliamentary leaders in the 'fight' against same-sex marriage and adoption in 2013 and his base remains the hardcore anti-gay marriage socons in the party. He is the most 'ideological' of the candidates, the only one who explicitly says he's a right-winger. He supports the complete repeal of the law to be replaced with an unequal 'civil union' excluding adoption rights (oh hai gays, but we're gonna de-marry you and force you to give up your kids! thx). He is also fairly Eurosceptic, but not as anti-immigration as Sarko, and is the most economically liberal (in the correct sense of the term) of the candidates. One of his main shticks is promising not to run in 2017 and says that the party president can't run in the primaries.
Obviously Poison Dwarf will win in a landslide, but the thing which matters is how big he wins by: over 70% would be a major success and Sarko would assume that his victory in 2017 is inevitable, over 60% would be a disappointing finish and below 60% would be a major defeat. For Le Maire, the original goal was/is 20% but he had a good campaign so he could be hoping for up to 30%. Mariton will need to break 10% to have a good finish.
The party will announce results at 8:45pm local time.
