Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[Beet]

Any chance the left and the Sweden Democrats form a coalition? Basically, left-wing policy on everything except for immigration.

[Tender Branson]

Any chance the left and the Sweden Democrats form a coalition? Basically, left-wing policy on everything except for immigration.

Good joke ...

[You kip if you want to...]

Any chance the left and the Sweden Democrats form a coalition? Basically, left-wing policy on everything except for immigration.

Ha, no.

[Zanas]

Quite the discrepancies between Novus and Valu exit polls. For example, V is 5.2 in Novus, 6.6 in Valu. MP 8.1-7.1. C 6.5-7.7 ! And finally SD is somewhere between 10.5-8.3 ! So this night could still hold some surprises...

[Tender Branson]

The Greens seem to be quite disappointed, which of course is understandable.

They were polling 10-11% and got 7-8% ...

[eric82oslo]

F!'s voters, according to the SVT exit poll, come from the following parties:

33% from MP
30% from V
only 14% (!) from S
10% from F! (they voted the same as in 2010)
5% from M
3% from FP
2% from C
0% from KD
0% from SD

http://pejl.svt.se/val2014/valu-riksdag/valjarstrommar#fi2014

[eric82oslo]

SD's voters come from the following parties:

41% from SD (voted the same again)
29% from M
16% from S
5% from FP
3% from KD
2% from MP
2% from C
2% from V
0% from F!

[politicus]

Any chance the left and the Sweden Democrats form a coalition? Basically, left-wing policy on everything except for immigration.

Ha, no.

It takes a long process of making right wing populists respectable and SocDems desperate for this to be feasible. Prominent younger SocDems in Denmark have talked about  such a possibility, but its estimated that it will take at least another generation before this might happen here.

In a Swedish context it will take 20 years longer than that (so maybe 40 years) before it might be possible (but who knows what Swedish politics looks like by then), since SD has a lot longer to go than DPP before it will be perceived as a normal party - if it ever happens - and it would take a right wing turn for the SAP on social issues for this to be imaginable. The Greens and the Left are completely unlikely to be part of such a coalition.

[eric82oslo]

After the first 9 polling Places have reported, SD is getting between 8.9% and 25.4% (!) in each of them. They're currently at 14.1%.

F! has gotten between 1.4% & 7.5%.

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

So far, turnout is up by almost 1%.

[Tender Branson]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

They just keep increasing actually. Now, after 31 places they're at 17%. That's almost triple (!) of what they got in 2010, in those same places. Which would indicate that they would get about 15% nationally.

[politicus]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

It means they are counting hick country.

[ingemann]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

It means they are counting hick country.

Not how I would have said it, but yes when we are at such low percents, they're counting rural areas, and here local preference can have a large influence on the early counting.

[Zanas]

Do we know what polling stations they're couting right now ? Must be hellish places...

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 17.6%. In Skåne, so far they get every 4 votes, if not more.

[eric82oslo]

Almost 2% of Sweden has been counted now. The relative changes since 2010 look like this now:

SD: +10.1%
F!: +1.7%
S: +0.2%
V: -0.2%
C: -0.4%
MP: -0.5%
KD: -1.4%
FP: -2.1%
M: -7.2%

[pendragon]

Assuming neither side gets enough for a majority or a stable minority gov't, is there going to be a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates?

[Zanas]

Assuming neither side gets enough for a majority or a stable minority gov't, is there going to be a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates?

Sweden's not at it yet. It's still pretty much a taboo in this context. So not if they can find any other way of dealing with the situation.

[Cassius]

1586 districts in

S - 32.2%
MP - 6.3%
V - 5.4%

M - 21.7%
C - 7.2%
FP - 4.8%
KD - 4.6%

SD - 14.2%
FI - 2.7%
Other - 0.9%

[jaichind]

It seems SD is very weak in Stockholms and Göteborg which slow in the count.

[Donerail]

Assuming neither side gets enough for a majority or a stable minority gov't, is there going to be a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates?

Sweden's not at it yet. It's still pretty much a taboo in this context. So not if they can find any other way of dealing with the situation.

Is there any chance for Löfven to negotiate a coalition agreement with Centre or FP?

[Zanas]

Assuming neither side gets enough for a majority or a stable minority gov't, is there going to be a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates?

Sweden's not at it yet. It's still pretty much a taboo in this context. So not if they can find any other way of dealing with the situation.

Is there any chance for Löfven to negotiate a coalition agreement with Centre or FP?

He has said that he could work with these two earlier, but I don't think they're his priviliged partners. Let's wait and see if some stable center-left block emerges before jumping to other exotic coalition possibilities.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh my God, 40% in and SD still at 13.7%. Pretty terrifying.

[Zanas]

Oh my God, 40% and SD still at 13.7%. Pretty terrifying.

Don't worry. They're still counting rural sh**tholes as we speak. Decent urban precincts are going to get in later. And FI is already at 3.0 which is good news.