Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[eric82oslo]

It seems F! is doing much better in the count of absentee ballots or whatever it is. They're at 3.8% there now, even though not a single district of Stockholm has been counted yet. That's an increase of 3.3% from last election.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html

Some 7% of districts have been counted.

Or these are maybe all votes being counted a 2nd time? It's all a bit confusing...

Yay so they have wasted even more of the left's votes.

Wait wait wait. F! now at 3.9% and still nothing from Stockholm.

At this stage last night they were only at 1.9% or thereabouts.

What's even stranger: They're above 7% in rural places like Uppsala and Västerbotten. Wait, what?!

[Tayya]

Eric, please.

Gothenburg, Uppsala and Malmö have started reporting, but there's nothing from rural Skåne yet. These are the election night results being recounted - late absentees will be added from Wednesday and on.

@ingemann: SD is not DPP, and it carries a whole lot of baggage that made any alternative to treating them as a pariah party in the 90's and early 00's an impossibility. There's been mistakes done since then, yes, especially around 2002, but maybe it's just history being inevitable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

[Cassius]

This thread is rather melodramatic, given that the centre-left parties still managed to form government and won a decent share of the vote. If they perform well, who knows, they could be back with a majority in four years time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, some people here just love playing at being Cassandra.

[eric82oslo]

Eric, please.

Gothenburg, Uppsala and Malmö have started reporting, but there's nothing from rural Skåne yet. These are the election night results being recounted - late absentees will be added from Wednesday and on.

Ah okey.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

Speaking of which, it's time to add another election to this count.

2006:

Constituencies won by the Alliance by margin

1 Stockholm County (+23,08%)
2 Stockholm City (+15,93%)
3 Halland (+14,79%)
4 Skåne South (+14,62)
5 V. Götaland West (+9,85%)
6 Uppsala (+9,20%)
7 Jönköping (+8,76%)
8 Skåne North & East (+7,54%) This is where I live
9 Skåne West (+5,72%)
10 Kronoberg (+4,48%)
11 V. Götaland South (+2,90%)
12 Gothenburg (+2,31%)
13 Gotland (+1,90%)
14 V. Götaland East (+0,46%)

Constituencies won by the Red-Greens by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,78%) Bloody Scary
2 Västerbotten (+19,83%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,69%)
4 Gävleborg (+13,96%)
5 Örebro (+13,70%)
6 Jämtland (+11,11%)
7 Blekinge (+10,65%)
8 Värmland (+9,62%)
9 Dalarna (+9,07%)
10 Södermanland (+9,02%)
11 Västmanland (+6,22%)
12 Kalmar (+5,54%)
13 V. Götaland North (+3,47%)
14 Malmö (+3,07%)
15 Östergötland (+1,06%)

2010:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+26,15%)
2 Skåne South (+24,43%)
3 Halland (+20,37%)
4 V Götaland West (+17,04%)
5 Stockholm City (+14,00%)
6 Skåne North & East (+13,18%)
7 Jönköping (+13,02%)
8 Skåne West (+12,76)
9 Kronoberg (+10,39%)
10 Uppsala (+10,25%)
11 V Götaland South (+6,54%)
12 V Götaland East (+4,55%)
13 Gothenburg (+4,23%)
14 V Götaland North (+2,64%)
15 Malmö (+2,12%)
16 Östergötland (+1,95%)
17 Kalmar (+0,74%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,77%)
2 Västerbotten (+22,85%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,35%)
4 Gävleborg (+11,82%)
5 Jämtland (+11,62%)
6 Örebro (+9,17%)
7 Dalarna (+7,03%)
8 Värmland (+6,10%)
9 Blekinge (+4,32%)
10 Västmanland (+3,57%)
11 Södermanland (+2.35%)
12 Gotland (+0,40%)

2014:

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+13,7%)
2 Skåne South (+8,6%)
3 Halland (+8,0%)
4 V Götaland West (+5,3%)
5 Stockholm City (+4,1%)
6 Jönköping (+1,2%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+38,9%)
2 Västerbotten (+30,0%)
3 Västernorrland (+26,7%)
4 Gävleborg (+18,9%)
5 Jämtland (+17,9%)
6 Örebro (+15,2%)
7 Värmland (+14,5%)
8 Blekinge (+14,4%)
9 Dalarna (+12,7%)
10 Malmö (+11,5)
11 Västmanland (+10,8%)
12 Södermanland (+10%)
13 Kalmar (+7,5%)
14 V Götaland North (+7,0%)
15 V Götaland East (+5,9%)
16 Östergötland (+5,6%)
17 Gotland (+3,8%)
18 Gothenburg (+3,6%)
19 Kronoberg (+2,9%)
20 Uppsala (+2,9%)
21 Skåne West (+2,9%)
22 V Götaland South (+2,6%)
23 Såne North & East (+1,9%)

[njwes]

This thread is rather melodramatic, given that the centre-left parties still managed to form government and won a decent share of the vote. If they perform well, who knows, they could be back with a majority in four years time.

Also since SD only got 13% and frankly 13% of any voting public can be convinced to vote for pretty much anything if there's enough discontent there. If anything the upset Swedes should be happy that the promises of unlimited 3rd-world Muslim immigration didn't result in a way bigger SD result.

Curious what the Red-Green Vote vs Non-Red-Green Vote map looks like

[ingemann]

This thread is rather melodramatic, given that the centre-left parties still managed to form government and won a decent share of the vote. If they perform well, who knows, they could be back with a majority in four years time.

First of all it's very hard to satify their voters without having a majority, second they won't deal with the reasons SD are growing, so that won't stop, unless they're lucky and SD implodes (very unlikely). So no I doubt we will see a red majority in near future.

[ingemann]

@ingemann: SD is not DPP, and it carries a whole lot of baggage that made any alternative to treating them as a pariah party in the 90's and early 00's an impossibility. There's been mistakes done since then, yes, especially around 2002, but maybe it's just history being inevitable.

Yes SD are not DPP and yes you couldn't have treated them as anything other than a pariah before 2010. Of course even today you don't need to include them, but you need to deal with the reason they exist.

That means taking the immigration issue seriously. Not deal with it by yelling racist and putting your collective fingers in the ears.

Also another way to deal with them, is by making them a real party, include them in issues outside the immigration issue, in fact they're so desperate to be taken serious, that you can make some unpopular compromise with them, with will both hurt their brand, but also make more normal.

[eric82oslo]

The is where on the left right scale voters placed themselves according to the exit poll. Going from left to right:

V: 96% left - 3% center - 1% right
F!: 91% left - 7% center - 2% right
SD: 74% left - 22% center - 4% right
MP: 69% left - 26% center - 5% right

SD: 17% left - 39% center - 44% right
C: 6% left - 29% center - 65% right
FP: 4% left - 22% center - 74% right
KD: 5% left - 18% center - 77% right
M: 2% left - 14% center - 84% right

So contrary to many people's belief - Moderaterna voters consider themselves the most right wing party.

[eric82oslo]

According to the exit poll, first time voters (18-21 year olds) voted like this:

S: 20%
M: 19%
MP: 15%
V: 9%
F!: 9%
SD: 7% (add a few percentage points here)
C: 7%
FP: 7%
KD: 4%

V+F!+S+MP: 53%
C+FP+KD+M: 37%

In comparison, 65+ voted like this:

V+F!+S+MP: 6+2+37+3 = 48%
C+FP+KD+M: 6+7+7+23 = 43%

S got almost twice as many votes among retirees than among first time voters, while F! got 4 to 5 times as many votes among the youngest voters. Also, MP got 5 times as many votes among first time voters.

[jaichind]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months ?

[H. Ross Peron]

Any possibility of the Social Democrats forming a government with the Left, Greens, and some of the smaller (and somewhat more moderate) Alliance parties-ie KD or C?

The problem here is that the three small centre-right parties are to the right of the Moderates, so its not a logical combo (and certainly impossible if the Left should be included in the government).

Hmm. I thought the KD was fairly economically centrist like the CU in the Netherlands but I guess I was wrong. Would the Liberals and the Centrists be considered to the right of M though?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

I think a doctor should look at that...

[politicus]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months?

Having a government that functions.

S+MP was alwas the most likely centre-left option. Including Left would make it harder to make a budget deal across the aisle.

[politicus]

Any possibility of the Social Democrats forming a government with the Left, Greens, and some of the smaller (and somewhat more moderate) Alliance parties-ie KD or C?

The problem here is that the three small centre-right parties are to the right of the Moderates, so its not a logical combo (and certainly impossible if the Left should be included in the government).

Hmm. I thought the KD was fairly economically centrist like the CU in the Netherlands but I guess I was wrong. Would the Liberals and the Centrists be considered to the right of M though?

Yes, on economics and labour market issues they would be. M moderated under Reinfeldt and C went to the right. Liberals were always pretty right wing on the socioeconomic scale.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months?

Having a government that functions.

S+MP was alwas the most likely centre-left option. Including Left would make it harder to make a budget deal across the aisle.

I understand that, but having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And leading electoral coalition, same warnings about provisional results etc.

I think a doctor should look at that...

I see what you did there.

[ingemann]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months?

Having a government that functions.

S+MP was alwas the most likely centre-left option. Including Left would make it harder to make a budget deal across the aisle.

I understand that, but having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

It make little practical difference whether a government have 36% or 44% of the MPs, if they can't get a majority with its supporting parties. The government have to work over the middle no matter what, so they're better off without the parties, which have it the hardest with compromising with the other side, and Vänsterpartiet are unlikely to pull their support, and honestly Vänsterpartiet is also better off without becoming part of this whole mess.

[DL]

having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.

 

 

[greenforest32]

having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.

I've always wondered how 'minority governments' run. Do bills and budgets need less than 50% of the vote or do they rely on opposition support on a case-by-case basis?

[politicus]

having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.

I've always wondered how 'minority governments' run. Do bills and budgets need less than 50% of the vote or do they rely on opposition support on a case-by-case basis?

You still need a majority. Either they have a supporting party outside the government which they can rely on in crucial votes or they negotiate everything with the opposition on a case by case basis.

[DL]

If I'm not mistaken the Social Democrats have almost never won a clear majority on their own and the norm has been for them to be passively supported by the Venstre and/or Miljo party without those parties having cabinet ministers - have there EVER been Venstre party cabinet ministers? In many cases the three or four "bourgeois parties" have had more seats than the S alone - so this is nothing new. It doesn't really matter if Venstre is part of the government with cabinet ministers, if they vote to make Lofven PM when the Riksdag meets then he has the confidence and he governs with their silent support, right?