Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[jaichind]

It seems SD is very weak in Stockholms and Göteborg which slow in the count.

[jaichind]

FI will have to rely on Stockholm to push them over 4%.  So far from a statistical point of view it does not seem likely.  They are not over-performing there enough for them to make it.

[jaichind]

FI is at 3% with 62.5% of the districts counted.  For them to get to 4% they have to perform at more than 6% in the remaining districts.  Even in Stockolm they are only at 4.9%.  They will miss the 4% by a significant margin.  

[jaichind]

With almost 2/3 of the districts results in, the center-left is clearly under performing so far.  The entire center-left vote share is 46.7% and that include a wasted vote of 3% for FI.

[jaichind]

So SD voters are shy toward exit pollsters and FI supporters are outgoing toward exit pollsters

[jaichind]

I guess this result will mean a center-left minority government with a significant chance of a mid-term election.

[jaichind]

If it is true that the elections have fixed dates then I agree it is likely that the S-MP-V will survive since it is almost impossible for the center-right parties to have a position coalition.  It is easy to get them to agree on a negative coalition, like vote down the budget.

[jaichind]

Looks like Stefan Loefven told Left party that he does not want to include Left Party in new government.  Not sure what Loefven is up to.  Is he hoping to rope in all if C-FP into his government?  Did not C already rule this out? It this does not work out are we not looking at at a budget talks failure in a few months ?