Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[eric82oslo]

The exit poll will include about 13,000 respondents.

[eric82oslo]

The latest rumour (revised early exit poll) F! will finish around 4.4%.
Perhaps it's the Pharrell Williams effect.

[eric82oslo]

F!'s voters, according to the SVT exit poll, come from the following parties:

33% from MP
30% from V
only 14% (!) from S
10% from F! (they voted the same as in 2010)
5% from M
3% from FP
2% from C
0% from KD
0% from SD

http://pejl.svt.se/val2014/valu-riksdag/valjarstrommar#fi2014

[eric82oslo]

SD's voters come from the following parties:

41% from SD (voted the same again)
29% from M
16% from S
5% from FP
3% from KD
2% from MP
2% from C
2% from V
0% from F!

[eric82oslo]

After the first 9 polling Places have reported, SD is getting between 8.9% and 25.4% (!) in each of them. They're currently at 14.1%.

F! has gotten between 1.4% & 7.5%.

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

So far, turnout is up by almost 1%.

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

They just keep increasing actually. Now, after 31 places they're at 17%. That's almost triple (!) of what they got in 2010, in those same places. Which would indicate that they would get about 15% nationally.

[eric82oslo]

SD now at 17.6%. In Skåne, so far they get every 4 votes, if not more.

[eric82oslo]

Almost 2% of Sweden has been counted now. The relative changes since 2010 look like this now:

SD: +10.1%
F!: +1.7%
S: +0.2%
V: -0.2%
C: -0.4%
MP: -0.5%
KD: -1.4%
FP: -2.1%
M: -7.2%

[eric82oslo]

Oh my God, 40% and SD still at 13.7%. Pretty terrifying.

Don't worry. They're still counting rural sh**tholes as we speak. Decent urban precincts are going to get in later. And FI is already at 3.0 which is good news.

Not really. F! is doing amazing in inner cities (Stockholm, Göteborg, Malmö), yet they're doing absolutely horribly in the suburbs. The by far most populous region of Sweden is the Stockholm subrubs, and there F! is only getting about 2.5% right now.

[eric82oslo]

Really depressing results. The only parties overperforming are SD, S and M.

[eric82oslo]

Yet another depressing night. Sigh. When will it end ?

November 2016

[eric82oslo]

F! didn't get in

No Pharrell Williams effect apparently.

[eric82oslo]

No Pharrell Williams effect apparently.

It would be pretty embarrassing if a foreign singer with no particular political background or insight could sway a notable portion of the Swedish electorate tbh

Well he wasn't the only one, ABBA Benny spent a fortune on the party as well.

[eric82oslo]

Don't think anyone posted the Riksdagen results for Stockholm city (only inner city, not the suburbs/exurbs):

1. M: 27.6% (better than nationally)
2. S: 21.7% (almost 10% worse than nationally)
3. MP: 11.1% (much better than nationally)
4. FP: 7.9% (better than nationally)
5. V: 7.8% (better than nationally)
6. F!: 7.2% (more than twice the national average)
7. C: 4.9% (a shockingly high number for a rural party! Their sister party in Norway only gets about 0.5% in Oslo)
8. KD: 4.3%

Remember that the capital or largest city usually gives you some clues on future trends.

In other words it's looking good for F!, MP, FP, V and M come 2018.
S however should be very worried about the future.

[eric82oslo]

Er... no. Firstly... that's patent bullsh!t. And secondly Stockholm always votes way to the right of the rest of the country.

I wouldn't call MP, V and F! right wing parties exactly.

The red green parties actually won the local elections in all the three major cities, Stockholm included.

[eric82oslo]

Also C has adopted a number of Libertarian positions which is why it attracts yuppie types in Stockholm, and while its traditionally a rural party you cant really categorize it as such anymore, even if there are still a large segment of rural folks left in the party (wondering what the heck the leadership is doing with their old party).

Libertarian positions like free pot?

[eric82oslo]

Remember that the capital or largest city usually gives you some clues on future trends.

Well at least that's been the case in Norway. In the US as well.

Examples in Norway being Frp, SV, Høyre, Rødt and most recently The Green Party, all starting out as heavily centered around Oslo before going more national. Though Rødt is still mainly an Oslo/big city party, so maybe you could scrap that.

[eric82oslo]

Rome has voted to the left of the rest of Italy for a long time,didn't say much about future trends...

I was mostly talking about more or less new (or previously small) parties first making roots in the big cities - like Oslo and Stockholm - before expanding to include more/most of the country. It hasn't so much to do with the left-right axis (if anything at all), but about individual parties expanding from the center and outwards. Since F! is a pretty new party, it's natural that they get established there first. SD is a different story though, since they first established themselves in Malmö, and not Stockholm. That's an example of an exeption in my opinion, although Malmö is still the 3rd largest city, so not a very huge exception exactly.

[eric82oslo]

It seems F! is doing much better in the count of absentee ballots or whatever it is. They're at 3.8% there now, even though not a single district of Stockholm has been counted yet. That's an increase of 3.3% from last election.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html

Some 7% of districts have been counted.

Or these are maybe all votes being counted a 2nd time? It's all a bit confusing...

[eric82oslo]

It seems F! is doing much better in the count of absentee ballots or whatever it is. They're at 3.8% there now, even though not a single district of Stockholm has been counted yet. That's an increase of 3.3% from last election.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html

Some 7% of districts have been counted.

Or these are maybe all votes being counted a 2nd time? It's all a bit confusing...

Yay so they have wasted even more of the left's votes.

Wait wait wait. F! now at 3.9% and still nothing from Stockholm.

At this stage last night they were only at 1.9% or thereabouts.

What's even stranger: They're above 7% in rural places like Uppsala and Västerbotten. Wait, what?!

[eric82oslo]

Eric, please.

Gothenburg, Uppsala and Malmö have started reporting, but there's nothing from rural Skåne yet. These are the election night results being recounted - late absentees will be added from Wednesday and on.

Ah okey.

[eric82oslo]

The is where on the left right scale voters placed themselves according to the exit poll. Going from left to right:

V: 96% left - 3% center - 1% right
F!: 91% left - 7% center - 2% right
SD: 74% left - 22% center - 4% right
MP: 69% left - 26% center - 5% right

SD: 17% left - 39% center - 44% right
C: 6% left - 29% center - 65% right
FP: 4% left - 22% center - 74% right
KD: 5% left - 18% center - 77% right
M: 2% left - 14% center - 84% right

So contrary to many people's belief - Moderaterna voters consider themselves the most right wing party.

[eric82oslo]

According to the exit poll, first time voters (18-21 year olds) voted like this:

S: 20%
M: 19%
MP: 15%
V: 9%
F!: 9%
SD: 7% (add a few percentage points here)
C: 7%
FP: 7%
KD: 4%

V+F!+S+MP: 53%
C+FP+KD+M: 37%

In comparison, 65+ voted like this:

V+F!+S+MP: 6+2+37+3 = 48%
C+FP+KD+M: 6+7+7+23 = 43%

S got almost twice as many votes among retirees than among first time voters, while F! got 4 to 5 times as many votes among the youngest voters. Also, MP got 5 times as many votes among first time voters.