Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014)

[politicus]

Since the other thread is too long, the results and post-election analysis/maps should be separated here. Please keep discussion here on topic. No exit poll leaks or that kind of crap.

If anybody cares to join, I might hang out in #atlasforum in the IRC.

Seems pointless. Its only on 738 and Dave's limit is 2.000 posts.

[politicus]

Looks like the Greens lost massively to FI ?

Yuck

[politicus]

What does this mean ?

A 49% Red-Green-Left-FI minority government against a 50% Alliance-SD opposition ?

Yeah,  centre-left government.

[politicus]

Any chance the left and the Sweden Democrats form a coalition? Basically, left-wing policy on everything except for immigration.

Ha, no.

It takes a long process of making right wing populists respectable and SocDems desperate for this to be feasible. Prominent younger SocDems in Denmark have talked about  such a possibility, but its estimated that it will take at least another generation before this might happen here.

In a Swedish context it will take 20 years longer than that (so maybe 40 years) before it might be possible (but who knows what Swedish politics looks like by then), since SD has a lot longer to go than DPP before it will be perceived as a normal party - if it ever happens - and it would take a right wing turn for the SAP on social issues for this to be imaginable. The Greens and the Left are completely unlikely to be part of such a coalition.

[politicus]

SD now at 16.9% after 21 polling places reported.

F! at only 1.9%.

That doesn't mean anything yet ...

It means they are counting hick country.

[politicus]

Oh my God, 40% and SD still at 13.7%. Pretty terrifying.

A friend of mine betted 10.000 Danish kroner (almost 2.000 $) SD would break the 12,0% DPP got in their breakthrough election in 2001 and I thought he was crazy, but he might actually win his bet.

[politicus]

So what will happen next, with SD holding the balance of power?

The biggest bloc will form a minority government.

[politicus]

So SD voters are shy toward exit pollsters and FI supporters are outgoing toward exit pollsters

It makes sense, SD is still not a respectable choice.

[politicus]

I guess this result will mean a center-left minority government with a significant chance of a mid-term election.

I don't think Sweden has ever had a "mid-term election"...the centre left will find some way to stay in power until 2018 - there is no alternative

Sweden had elections in 1958, 1960 and 1970 after 2 years.   

[politicus]

Sweden had elections in 1958, 1960 and 1970 after 2 years.   

The 1958 election is the only one that counts. in 1970 they had an early election because they changed the entire constitution and eliminated the upper house. It wasn't because of a government falling.

I know, but its still a mid-term. Why wouldn't 1960 count? 1921 with the SAP/Communist split counts as well.

Of course today they have fixed terms, so its only of historical interest.

I think he means "early election". Only 1958 counts as one. 1960 was at the regular date, and 1970 was due to Swedish constitutional reforms.  In other words, they have not had an early election in 56 years.

It sounds odd that they needed a regular election 2 years after an early election - fixed election dates instead of fixed terms is strange. Are you sure about this?

[politicus]

If it is true that the elections have fixed dates then I agree it is likely that the S-MP-V will survive since it is almost impossible for the center-right parties to have a position coalition.  It is easy to get them to agree on a negative coalition, like vote down the budget.

You don't trust us?

[politicus]

Great job, Swedes! Welcome to the same nightmarish hell that other European countries have been living through for a while. Apparently you're no better than them.

Being a little overdramatic here, aren't we? It's still going to be a minority for the left.

Yeah, with a bunch of xenophobic bastards holding the balance of power. Surely this is gonna be a wonderful left-wing government.

SAP cooperation across the aisle with the centre-right is not exactly an alien concept to Swedish politics.

[politicus]

Sweden had elections in 1958, 1960 and 1970 after 2 years.   

The 1958 election is the only one that counts. in 1970 they had an early election because they changed the entire constitution and eliminated the upper house. It wasn't because of a government falling.

I know, but its still a mid-term. Why wouldn't 1960 count? 1921 with the SAP/Communist split counts as well.

Of course today they have fixed terms, so its only of historical interest.

I don't think 1960 could have been held at a later date. In the event of an early election, the next election would still have to take place four years after the last "regular" election (i.e., not like in the UK, Denmark, etc. - Swedens early election rules are/were more restricted).

Okay. Swedes are weird.

[politicus]

Great job, Swedes! Welcome to the same nightmarish hell that other European countries have been living through for a while. Apparently you're no better than them.

Being a little overdramatic here, aren't we? It's still going to be a minority for the left.

Yeah, with a bunch of xenophobic bastards holding the balance of power. Surely this is gonna be a wonderful left-wing government.

SAP cooperation across the aisle with the centre-right is not exactly an alien concept to Swedish politics.

Yeah, isn't that quite a common thing in Scandinavia? Hasn't HTS had to get some stuff passed with Venstre instead of Red-Green in Denmark? (or am I thinking of Borgen?)

Yes. Most of the governments important reforms actually.

[politicus]

Reinfeldt has announced his resignation.

Both as PM and party leader.

Bastard.

Ursäkta mig! I couldn't let a Swede break this news.

He should be remembered as one of the best and most likable centre-right leaders in Europe in the last 20 years.

[politicus]

For any further comment on this election, refer to the first quote in my sig.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It was neither a surprising result or a big surprise that SD got more votes than the polls showed.

Is that supposed to make things better? It's not working.

No it was not supposed making you feel better, it was a comment about stop making a big drama out it, the new government will likely keep Reinfeldt promise about taking 360 000 Syrian refugees in the next 4 years (more than Germany takes), they will likely raise the taxes to pay for it. So be happy for that at least.

In Antonios defence, if you view the last 40 years of European history as one long rearguard battle for Social Democrats against an advancing neoliberal wave (and that is not an unreasonable take on European political history), then a party as strong as SAP not being able to regain a left wing majority with a worn down bourgeois government is a big dissapointment.
Basically it is yet another proof that Social Democracy as a political force is in big trouble even in countries where it once dominated.

[politicus]

Also where are municipal results posted?

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/K/rike/index.html

Any surprises in the Scanian results or did it turn out like you expected?

[politicus]

For any further comment on this election, refer to the first quote in my sig.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It was neither a surprising result or a big surprise that SD got more votes than the polls showed.

Is that supposed to make things better? It's not working.

No it was not supposed making you feel better, it was a comment about stop making a big drama out it, the new government will likely keep Reinfeldt promise about taking 360 000 Syrian refugees in the next 4 years (more than Germany takes), they will likely raise the taxes to pay for it. So be happy for that at least.

In Antonios defence, if you view the last 40 years of European history as one long rearguard battle for Social Democrats against an advancing neoliberal wave (and that is not an unreasonable take on European political history), then a party as strong as SAP not being able to regain a left wing majority with a worn down bourgeois government is a big dissapointment.
Basically it is yet another proof that Social Democracy as a political force is in big trouble even in countries where it once dominated.

But it's not under threat from liberals and conservatives. It's under threat from the far-right, to state the obvious. These leftist parties still haven't quite come to terms with this. UKIP here in the UK is bit different, but center-left parties in Europe are basically losing youngs to the far-right as their olds are dying.

The advance of neoliberalism and the resulting changes to the welfare state are a big part of the reason why right populists have succes. Especially in countries like Sweden and Denmark where right wing populists styling themselves as old school Social Democrats is a big part of their appeal.

[politicus]

S 31.2, MP 6.8, V 5.7
M 23.2, C 6.1, FP 5.4, KD 4.6
SD 12.9
FI 3.1

Sweden now has a stronger right wing populist party than Denmark (12,3%), at least in terms of voter share (but of course not influence).

[politicus]

I wonder how Lund voted?

22,8% (+3,3) SAP/Social Democrats
22,6% (-9,5) Moderaterna/Moderates
12,2% (-0,6) Miljöpartiet/Greens
9,8% (-1,3) Folkpartiet/Liberals
9,3% (+4,3) Sverigedemokraterna/Sweden Democrats
6,4% (+0,6) Vänsterpartiet/Left
5,9% (+5,2) FI/Feminists
5,7% (-0,9) Centerpartiet/Center Party
4,0% (-1,0) Kristdemokraterna/Christian Democrats
Others 1,3% (-0,1)

[politicus]

I wonder how Lund voted?

You can get specific results (in English) from Expressen.

svt.se also has them all, just put the name of the municipality in here: http://valresultat.svt.se/

As you can see from the numbers I posted above  Lund has many of the typical university town features: Strong Greens and strong feminists and weak SAP due to lack of traditional working class voters. Given its demographics 9,3% for SD is a lot, but it is Scania where the party is strong (region with high immigration).

[politicus]

Also C has adopted a number of Libertarian positions which is why it attracts yuppie types in Stockholm, and while its traditionally a rural party you cant really categorize it as such anymore, even if there are still a large segment of rural folks left in the party (wondering what the heck the leadership is doing with their old party).

[politicus]

Why is it that Stockholm votes so much more to the right than the rest of Sweden while in Denmark Copenhagen is much more leftwing than the rest of Denmark...and Paris and Berlin are much more left in their voting than the rest of Germany and France.

Regarding Stockholm it is expensive and with lots of well paid academics and white collar types working in administration, finance and the liberal professions and has few industrial workers.

Regarding Copenhagen its A. because the centre-right strongholds north of Copenhagen are not included in the constituency and B. because of its heritage as an industrial city with a large working class, while Stockholm was never an industrial city, this has given it a left wing tradition C. real estate in Copenhagen is also substantially cheaper (about half the price) than Stockholm, (which also affects the rent level), so more people with lower income lives there.

[politicus]

Any possibility of the Social Democrats forming a government with the Left, Greens, and some of the smaller (and somewhat more moderate) Alliance parties-ie KD or C?

The problem here is that the three small centre-right parties are to the right of the Moderates, so its not a logical combo (and certainly impossible if the Left should be included in the government).

[politicus]

I realize that real estate is very expensive in Stockholm and that it is a very white collar city etc... but what could be more expensive and white collar than London and yet the Labour Party tends to do much better in London than in the rest of England. Housing prices are stratospheric in New York and San Francisco and they are both very rich cities and yet they tend to elect the most ultra liberal Democrats at every level and Republicans are endangered species.

In Europea industrialization is important. Cities without an industrial tradition tends to vote centre-right, cities with a strong industrial tradition are more left wing (Glasgow would be a case). De-industrialisation has left many relatively poor people in cities (like Copenhagen) and to the extent that they haven't been driven out by exorbitant housing prices, they are still there.
Both left wing tradition and the higher amount of relatively poor people living in cities with an industrial heritage make those cities more left wing.

In the US you have a bunch of social issues to blur the left/right picture and make poor areas vote right because of social issues, so its a different dynamic. In Scandinavia the poor=left and rich=right is generally pretty clear even if the rise of modern right wing populism in poorer areas tends to skew the picture nowadays (and it never fully applied to rural Denmark, where the Liberals are strong).

Immigrants also vote left in Europe, but this rarely explains the difference between cities, but is at least a factor to be considered.