538 on Alaska polling

[CapoteMonster]

http://53eig.ht/1sSSR3s

Interesting point here about the history of Alaska polling being inaccurate. Begich shouldn't be feeling too comfortable.

[JRP1994]

tl:dr version: Alaska polls since 1998 have averaged a 7.2% Democrat bias.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is why I think Sullivan will win in the end.

[SWE]

This is why I think Sullivan will win in the end.

[IceSpear]

Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

[cinyc]

Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

[Maxwell]

Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

I think he's talking about the within Alaska races where, say, a Republican incumbent was running.

[cinyc]

Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

I think he's talking about the within Alaska races where, say, a Republican incumbent was running.

The Presidential races also show a real polling bias toward the Democratic candidate.  It's not just incumbency.

[IceSpear]

Of course, the big question is: could it possibly just be an incumbency bias? Most of these races seem to have underestimated Republican incumbents. Hawaii definitely has incumbency bias, so it's possible Alaska could as well. I guess we'll see in November.

No.  George W. Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000.  The 2000 Presidential race was included in the analysis, as was the 2008 Presidential race, which also had no Republican incumbent.

I think he's talking about the within Alaska races where, say, a Republican incumbent was running.

The Presidential races also show a real polling bias toward the Democratic candidate.  It's not just incumbency.

True, but 2008 had Palin. This article also doesn't include 2010 Senate, where the polls massively underestimated incumbent Murkowski who was running as a write-in.

Too bad there weren't any Alaska polls in 2012 (that I could find). I do remember Obama doing a lot better there than expected though, similar to Bush in Hawaii in 2004.

[Sol]

Alaska natives traditionally been swingy. Perhaps related?

[solarstorm]

Where do the polled Alaskans live? Only in Achorage? I mean it must be horrifying for the pollsters to poll such a huge state with an extremely low population density.
How many Alaskans have phones and Internet at all?

[Bacon King]

Where do the polled Alaskans live? Only in Achorage? I mean it must be horrifying for the pollsters to poll such a huge state with an extremely low population density.
How many Alaskans have phones and Internet at all?

I would assume rural Alaskans living outside of the Anchorage metro would be more likely to have a phone as it's their only means of communicating with the outside world (including the dudes who deliver their food supply)