AR-Southern Progress Fund (D)/Answers Unlimited (D ?): Pryor+4
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Author Topic: AR-Southern Progress Fund (D)/Answers Unlimited (D ?): Pryor+4  (Read 992 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 16, 2014, 08:53:46 AM »

U.S. Senate

Mark Pryor 46%
Tom Cotton 42%
Nathan LaFrance 2%
Mark Swaney  2%
Don’t Know/ Undecided 8%

The poll, conducted by Answers Unlimited and conducted Sunday, September 7 – Tuesday, September 9, surveyed 600 likely voters statewide and has a +/- 3.5% margin of error.

http://www.southernprogressfund.org/2014/09/new-statewide-poll

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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2014, 09:06:04 AM »

Very skeptical
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2014, 10:00:42 AM »

This race looks about tied, all things considered.
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backtored
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2014, 10:20:00 AM »

I have no idea what is going on in Arkansas.  Nobody has any idea what is going on in Arkansas.  All things being equal, the GOP should win this race.  But they should win Kansas, too.  That doesn't mean they will.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2014, 10:24:28 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 10:27:45 AM by OC »

Thats why the Senate even so slightly tilt towards Dems. AR and Ga still remain in play, while we still hold small leads in AK and NC, our firewall.
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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2014, 10:27:57 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 11:13:27 AM by backtored »

Thats why the Senate evee so slightly tilt towards Dems. AR and Ga still remain in play, while we still hold small leads in AK and NC, our firewall.

Georgia isn't in play.  Arkansas probably is, or maybe it isn't. The polling is pretty erratic in that state.  And while Democrats hold small leads in NC, IA, CO, and NH, if Democrats lose even one of them--and I think they could easily lose three--then the Senate is done.  It is a lot cozier being a Republican this year than a Democrat.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2014, 11:02:55 AM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.
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windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2014, 11:03:45 AM »

Well,

L
O
L

Huh
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2014, 11:05:52 AM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2014, 11:07:04 AM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2014, 11:08:26 AM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.

Really? Most polls I've seen have had her in the low 40s. Some even in the 30s I think.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2014, 11:10:53 AM »

This same poll had Ross and Hutchinson tied, verys skeptical. This race could very well be tied though.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2014, 11:36:36 AM »

Polls that are paid for by liberal groups are skewed to the specification of the liberal group and shouldn't be trusted.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2014, 11:47:39 AM »

This is almost certainly skewed toward the Democrats, the race is probably very close right now.  Within a point or two. 
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2014, 01:07:37 PM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.

Let's get real. Landrieu won't clear 50% on election day. I'll bet the farm it'll come down to the runoff.
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Never
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2014, 02:38:51 PM »

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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2014, 03:36:22 PM »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2014, 03:40:21 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 03:41:55 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Thats why the Senate even so slightly tilt towards Dems. AR and Ga still remain in play, while we still hold small leads in AK and NC, our firewall.

Yeah, Alaska is certainly part of your "firewall".

As for the poll:


D-polls tend to show a small Pryor lead, neutral and well-respected pollsters have a tie or Cotton slightly leading. I think its a tilt R race at this point.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2014, 03:44:13 PM »

Republicans only will win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, while losing Kansas to an Independent, for a net gain for two. Arkansas might fall, but it's far from a guarantee. Everything else will go Democratic.

Isn't it more likely that Louisiana will fall than Arkansas, since she will actually need 50% of the vote in order to survive? And as far as I can remember, she hasn't been even near that number in any polls so far. I hope I'm wrong though. Smiley If I could chose, I'd rather want Louisiana to go Democratic than Arkansas.

I think Landrieu could clear 50% on election day, polling has shown her hovering close to 50%.

Let's get real. Landrieu won't clear 50% on election day. I'll bet the farm it'll come down to the runoff.

The operative word is "could". We will see who is correct on election day, it will be interesting to see how the predictions go.
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2014, 07:19:46 PM »

Good to see the southern gentleman taking the army grunt to the woodshed.
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