NC-PPP: Paul, Christie, Cruz trails hard, Bush & Huck slightly ahead

[eric82oslo]

PPP has once again been generous to us and given us their 11th take on the 2016 race in their own home state. Hillary still does very well in this toss-up state, yet the differences between the possible GOP candidates are now getting more significant:

Jeb Bush leads Hillary by 2%: 45-43
Mike Huckabee leads Hillary by 1%: 46-45

Rand Paul trails Hillary by 5%: 41-46
Chris Christie trails Hillary by 7%: 38-45
Ted Cruz trails Hillary by 8%: 40-48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/hagan-lead-steady-at-4-points.html

Clearly this state remains a toss-up 2016-wise for now.

[eric82oslo]

This is a poll of likely 2014 voters.

North Carolina is a state where the midterm electorate is very different from the presidential year electorate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/upshot/why-the-democrats-turnout-problem-is-worst-in-north-carolina.html

How do we know that they used the likely voter model to estimate the 2016 turn out in this poll? That's pure speculation in my view and probably false. Why couldn't they have asked all respondents this question? After all, they don't estimate the likely voter turnout until after the poll has been executed. When they ask a question related to 2016, there's no reason they'll spend heaps of resources to use a 2014 electorate to calculate such an outcome instead of just using the raw numbers.

[eric82oslo]

How do we know that they used the likely voter model to estimate the 2016 turn out in this poll? That's pure speculation in my view and probably false. Why couldn't they have asked all respondents this question? After all, they don't estimate the likely voter turnout until after the poll has been executed. When they ask a question related to 2016, there's no reason they'll spend heaps of resources to use a 2014 electorate to calculate such an outcome instead of just using the raw numbers.

"PPP surveyed 1,266 likely voters from September 11th to 14th."

And since the focal point of the poll is the senate race, the likely voters are of the senate race.

Exactly. The likely voters are of the senate race. It doesn't say whether they used likely voters or registered voters for their 2016 calculation. I would be very surprised if they calculated a likely voter outcome this far in advance.

[eric82oslo]

How do we know that they used the likely voter model to estimate the 2016 turn out in this poll? That's pure speculation in my view and probably false. Why couldn't they have asked all respondents this question? After all, they don't estimate the likely voter turnout until after the poll has been executed. When they ask a question related to 2016, there's no reason they'll spend heaps of resources to use a 2014 electorate to calculate such an outcome instead of just using the raw numbers.

"PPP surveyed 1,266 likely voters from September 11th to 14th."

And since the focal point of the poll is the senate race, the likely voters are of the senate race.

Exactly. The likely voters are of the senate race. It doesn't say whether they used likely voters or registered voters for their 2016 calculation. I would be very surprised if they calculated a likely voter outcome this far in advance.

Every single question in the poll is answered by the 2014 likely voters.

PPP really should know better than to test 2016 matchups among 2014 likely voters.

How do you know that if it's not stated anywhere?
I don't consider this sentence to answer the question: "PPP surveyed 1,266 likely voters from September 11th to 14th."
It just tells about the poll in general (the main theme is after all the 2014 election), but don't say anything about specific questions within the larger poll. Do you think they only ask the baseball/American football questions to likely voters? I think not. I'm pretty sure it's only 2014 related questions which are screened using likely voters. This does of course also include policy questions that might influence their 2014 decisions, for instance their stance on minimum wage. Yet the 2016 universe is a whole 'nother ball game, so it doesn't apply really.