By-elections of India

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Minor blow for the fledgling Modi government in the latest by-elections.

Included were 11 assembly seats in UP, 9 in Gujarat and 4 in Rajasthan; all belonging to the BJP or its allies.

In Uttar Pradesh, helped by the decision for the BSP not to run, the Samajwadi Party swept seven of the seats. This seems very irritating for the BJP, and mau be related to the BJP playing with sectarian anti-Muslim smears during the campaign (some things never change).

The INC took 3 seats apiece in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

The BJP did make a surprise entry entry into the West Bengal assembly, which has never been exactly fertile ground for them; they also retained one federal seat which Modi won in the general, having been elected to two different constituencies simultaneously (?).

[jaichind]

Take the the UP result with a grain of salt.  The BSP boycotted the polls saying that the SP was going to rig it.  Not having BSP contest had the effect of consolidating all non-BJP votes behind the SP candidates.  So when it was the BJP vs anti-BJP in a de facto one-on-one fight, the anti-BJP won 9 vs 2.   Perhaps that was what the BSP had in mind, who knows.  What this shows that take any political force X in India and then create an election with X vs anti-X one-on-one, anti-X always wins.   This was true for INC back in 1977 and 1989 and is true today as well for BJP.  X tends to win when anti-X vote is split among different parties.

Yes, Indian elections allows a candidate to run from two seats at the same time.  Both Modi and Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP took this option.  BJP won the seat Modi gave up in Gujarat and SP won the seat Mulayam Singh Yadav gave up in UP.

In WB, the BJP won by BJP raising the issue of cattle smuggling to Bangladesh.  The Hindu vote consolidated behind BJP and the Muslim vote was split between AITC and CPM.

Overall the BJP suffered setbacks.  Note this is the third round of by-elections since the general elections back in May and the BJP did poorly in all three.  First in Uttrakhand the INC won 3 seats fom BJP back in July.  Then in August the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD-INC won 6 out of 10 seats while back in 2010 the NDA won 7 of the 10.  

[jaichind]

Latest development, BJP-SHS alliance seems to have fallen apart in Maharashtra for the upcoming assembly elections.  This might actually trigger a INC-NCP alliance collapse.   If INC-NCP alliance falls apart, NCP and SHS might form an alliance.  Likewise it is possible that BJP and NMS might form an alliance.  Papers has be filed for candidates in a 2 days so activities on making and breaking alliances will be very fast pace next day or two.

[jaichind]

Latest.  As soon as the word is out that BJP-SHS alliance is over, the word is out that INC will almost certainly break alliance with NCP.  The upcoming election will be a free-for-all.  A lot like 1989 TN assembly elections with AIADMK(Jaya) vs AIADMK(Jan) vs DMK vs INC

[jaichind]

Maharashtra and Haryana assembly results will be out tonight.  Both are INC ruled states where it has become BJP vs ex-NDA ally (SHS in Maharashtra and INLD in Haryana) vs INC vs INC rebel party (NCP in Maharashtra and HJC in Haryana).  In both cases the expected result in terms of seats will be in that sequence and with BJP coming close to if not getting a majority on its own.  BJP took a big risk in snapping ties with SHS in Maharashtra and HJC in Haryana.  SHS and INLD will hold their own and both come in second.  INC will be defeated although INC hopes to do better than the LS elections in May in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

BJP on track to win a majority in both Maharashtra and Haryana.  SHS and INLD not doing as well as expected.  INC's results are a disaster but seems to be better than feared and better than the results of 2014 LS election.  This is based on current trends and could change.  Historically as the count continues it works to the benefit of the leading party.  So BJP will win majority in both states for sure.

[jaichind]

INLD which had expected to give the BJP a run for its money for the largest party in Haryana is now at risk of falling behind INC as the second largest party.  In Maharashtra, NCP and SHS not doing as well, but INC will still most likely finish behind SHS.

[jaichind]

BJP for now not getting a majority in Maharashtra but I suspect that will change as the count continues.  The real loser so far is not INC nor NCP but NMS and various independents which were mostly NCP or INC rebels.  Lots of them that ran and won in 2009 as rebels now are running as INC or NCP now that INC and NCP alliance broke down.

[jaichind]

BJP for now is falling further behind a majority in Maharashtra while NCP is gaining ground now. NCP might come ahead of INC to be the third largest party.

[jaichind]

So far it is

Maharashtra (out of 288)
BJP+              123        30%
SHS                 61        20%
INC                  42        18%
NCP                 41         16%
MNS                  2           3%
Others            19          13%

Haryana  (out of 90)
BJP                47           33%
INLD+           21           25%
INC                15          21%
HJC                 2             4%
Others            5            18%

NCP has offered support for a BJP government from the outside as BJP+ does not have a majority on its own.

[jaichind]

Haryana results very similar to Haryana assembly results in 1996, where now BJP plays the role of BJP+HVP of 1996.  HVP was a INC splinter which has since merged back into INC.  In 1996 SAP was really proto-INLD.  AIIC(T) in 1996 was a INC splinter just like HJC is in 2014

1996
BJP+HVP            44     32%
SAP                    24     21%
INC                      9     21%
AIIT(T)                 3       3%
BSP                      0       5%

2014
BJP                   47      33%
INLD+              21      25%
INC                  15       21%
HJC+                 2         4%
BSP                   1         4%

INLD whose leadership caste in large legal problems needed to at least stop BJP from getting a majority.  That they have failed means that the entire INLD could no longer exist a few years from now from its entire vote getting leadership being in jail and out of politics.  This might be the basis for INC to come back.

1996 is like 2014 where we had an unpopular UPA government that was defeated both at the center and state.  There seems to be an anti-UPA anti-INLD vote which is around 33% of the vote which went to BJP in 2014 and HVP+BJP in 1996.  HVP disappeared since so BJP was able to take over this entire voting bloc of 33%.

[jaichind]

Haryana count complete

BJP                    47        33%
INLD+SAD         20        25%
INC                    15        21%
HJC+HRJCP         2           4%
Others                6         18%

Of the 6 Others seat, 1 is BSP and 5 are independents.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra count done

BJP+             123        29%
SHS                63        19%
INC                 42        18%
NCP                41         17%
MNS                 1          3%
Others            18        13%

Others breakdown are: 7 independent, 3 BVA, 3 PWPI, 2 AIMIM, 1 BBM, 1 SP, 1 CPM.

[jaichind]

The Maharashtra results should be seen both in comparison to the 2009 Maharashtra assembly elections as well as the 2014 LS elections.  Relative to 2009 clearly the NDA parties BJP and SHS have gained and  UPA parties INC and NCP have declined.  The seat count seem to exaggerate this shift and in terms of vote share the decline of the UPA parties is not massive.

In 2009 assembly the UPA parties, INC NCP and BVA 21% 16.4% 0.5% respectively for a combined total of 38%while NDA parties, BJP and SHS got 14% 16.3% for a total of 30%.  We add to this MNS which is really a splinter NDA party which got 5.7 for a combined NDA in 2009 of 36%.  In 2014 while both NDA and UPA broke up we can still compute the vote shares of the two blocs for comparison to 2009.  In this case UPA 2014 got 18% 17% 1% for INC NCP BVA or around 36%.  For UPA it is 29% 19% and 3% for BJP+ SHS NMS or 51%.  So UPA fell by 2% but NDA gained 15%.  What took place from 2009 to 2014 was various rebels (mostly UPA rebels) ran in 2009 and got a good share of the vote.  In 2014 most of these rebels were accommodated by BJP SHS INC NCP or even MNS because the election became a 5 way battle.  So the NDA victory over UPA in 2014 over 2009 is mostly a victory of being able to consume these local rebel forces.  In particular the BJP was very successful in doing this.

If we do the same comparison for NDA and UPA relative to the 2014 LS election we see the NDA tide ebbing.  In 2014 LS election the pan-NDA vote share was 27.6% 20.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% for BJP SHS SWP MNS RSP and SHS independent for a vote share of 54%.  The UPA vote share in 2014 LS election was 16.1% 18% 0.6% for INC NCP BVA for a total of 35%.  So relative to 2014 LS election the NDA parties fell 3% while the UPA rose 1%.  While it is quite impressive that the pan-NDA parties could keep up such a large vote share, there has been small amount of erosion of the pan-NDA vote.   

[jaichind]

For Maharashtra, I was able to compute the vote shares of all 5 formations (BJP+, INC, SHS+, NCP+, NMS) which includes independents which were supported by each front.  There are a total of 288 seats up for grabs.

2014
               Contested    Won       Votes            Vote share          
BJP+             285        123    15,662,260          29.88%
INC               287         42      9,496,144           18.12%
SHS+            284         63     10,334,922          19.72%
NCP+            285         45       9,549,579          18.22%
NMS              219          1       1,665,033            3.18%
BSP               280         0        1,191,749            2.27%
Ind                               6       2,158,167            4.12%                


When we compare to 2009 assembly elections

2009
               Contested    Won       Votes            Vote share      
NDA             285          91     14,082,268          31.16%
UPA              286        146     17,122,645          37.89%
MNS             143          13       2,585,597           5.72%
BSP              281           0       1,065,836            2.36%
Ind                              23       6,625,007          14.66%

We see what took place was that UPA parties mostly retained their vote share 37.89% vs 36.34% and the pan-NDA (BJP SHS MNS and allies) surged from 36.88% in 2009 to 52.78%. What took place was obviously a swing from pan-UPA to pan-NDA plus some of the 2009 independents (mostly local barons and various rebels of all stripes but more UPA rebels than NDA rebels) went over to the UPA parties in 2014 since INC and NCA running separately could accommodate them meant that net net it was a small net loss for pan-UPA.  NDA got the lion share of the 2009 independents with the most going to BJP+ as these local barons wants to be on the winning side.  The minor parties of 2009 also either joined one of the 4 fronts in 2014 or lost vote share, mostly to the pan-NDA parties.  Within the pan-NDA parties, a swing from MNS to mostly BJP+ and to some extent SHS+ added to their seat lead.

Looking at 2004 election gives us another point of comparison

2004
               Contested    Won       Votes            Vote share      
NDA             287         119    14,671,087          35.06%
UPA              287        143    17,068,660           40.79%
BSP              272           0       1,671,429            3.99%
Ind                              15       5,112,663          12.21%

Which is mostly fairly similar to 2009 other than the fact that NMS did not split from SHS yet in 2004.  The overall decline of pan-UPA from 2004 to 2009 is part of the narrative of the continued rise of UPA rebels which became local barons as the independent vote increased from 2004 to 2009.  In 2014 most of these barons found homes, mostly in BJP.

Note for LS elections these local barons tends to play a much smaller role and supports either UPA or NDA so the independent votes are a lot smaller but with a similar trend with a small UPA advantage in 2004 followed by the rise of independents in 2009 as well as NMS hurting NDA followed by the decline of MNS as well as the consolidation of independents behind NDA creating a NDA landslide.

2014
               Contested    Won       Vote share      
NDA             48           42              51.9%
UPA              48            6              35.0%
MNS             10            0                1.5%
BSP              48            0                2.6%
Ind                              0                3.3%

2009
               Contested    Won       Vote share      
NDA              48          20               35.0%
UPA              48           25               40.2%
MNS             11            0                4.1%
BSP              47            0                4.8%
Ind                              1                7.3%

2004
               Contested    Won       Vote share      
NDA             48           25              42.7%
UPA             48           23               44.8%
BSP              46            0                3.1%
Ind                              0                3.9%