Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[backtored]

Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

If the Dems continue to cut into the R-margin by 1% each day now for the next 8 days, I'm happy with that.

Let's see how this develops ...

If it's R+5 or R+6 or R+7 next Tuesday with the final update, it could still be close.

If it's R+3, Gardner likely loses.

R+7 or more should be good news for Gardner.

[backtored]

Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

If the Dems continue to cut into the R-margin by 1% each day now for the next 8 days, I'm happy with that.

Let's see how this develops ...

If it's R+5 or R+6 or R+7 next Tuesday with the final update, it could still be close.

If it's R+3, Gardner likely loses.

R+7 or more should be good news for Gardner.

Notice that the Democrats haven't taken anything from the margin.  It is unaffiliated voters who have started to turn their ballots in, but the Democrats have been stuck at 31-32 percent for more than a week.  I doubt they'll get much better than that, although the GOP's numbers will probably reach down to 38 or 39 percent as more unaffiliated voters vote.

The GOP has lost about two points over the last week.  That is only a point every few days, which would put the final turnout at R+8 or R+9--a serious disaster for Democrats.  Statistically, I think it's highly unlikely that Democrats will gain a point every day for the next week.  If Democratic GOTV suddenly goes into turbo-drive, yes, it is hypothetically possible.  But it is very unlikely.

I would guess that final turnout is somewhere between R+5 and R+8.  I still think that a 2010 turnout would allow the GOP beat both Hickenlooper and Udall, and my estimate would do that.  We'll see, though.  A majority of ballots have still yet to be returned, although so far it is amazingly good for the GOP.

[tmthforu94]

I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

So far, about 92,000 have voted early in Kansas. Of those, 53% were Republican, 32% were Democrat, and just 14.6% were Independent. A good chunk (1/3) of early voters are coming from the Wichita area.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, ballots cast:

(Figures with "(^)" next to them indicate group as a % of early voters is consistently increasing)
(All 2014 early voting totals are through Sunday, 10/26; 2010 totals are for entire early vote period)

Georgia is looking quite good for Democrats so far. There has been an seven-point swing thus far in early voting turnout by likely party when compared to 2010 (!!), with it being likely that the number will continue to improve for Democrats over the remainder of this week, if historical trends are any indicator. The number of unknown affiliated being slightly higher is potentially an indicator that there are more first-time voters voting early.

By race, blacks are two percentage points more of the electorate than they were in 2010, and that number will also continue to increase. In 2010, blacks were 29% of EVs and the final number was 28%, suggesting that the total black share of the electorate in 2014 could very well be 30-31%.

The female percentage of the vote is still a bit below 2010 numbers but steadily increasing, and is on track to meet or surpass 2010 numbers. The current breakdowns by age when compared to 2010 are the least optimistic, but thankfully in Georgia (at least in this case), voting preference by age is relatively uniform across the board.

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[Miles]

With today being the last day, about 189K early votes were cast in LA.

The bad news for Landrieu: Thats only about 53% of the total early votes in 2012.

The good news for Landrieu: The racial composition still very similar to 2012. In 2010, for example, the black share dropped to 24%; it was 33% in 2012 and currently stands at 32%.

Another good sign is that women are outvoting men 55/45.

[Brittain33]

I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

I'm no Pollyanna, but Republican turnout may be an irrelevant measure. If Orman and Davis win, it will be with large numbers of registered Republicans.

[RogueBeaver]

NV: GOP has a nearly 2k lead in Clark, no Washoe # yet. Curious to see if this is enough to negate crossover in the AG race.

[Marston]

Absentee voting is up 33% in MI compared to 2010.

http://www.wlns.com/story/27053222/skubick-absentee-voters-up-33-percent#.VE-XypBfPdo.facebook

[Miles]

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[backtored]

Colorado Republicans maintain strong turnout advantage. 

Colorado 10/28 update.

Total ballots: 777,820 (this is somewhere between 35 and 40 percent of this year's electorate)

Republicans: 331,723 (43%)
Democrats: 250,841 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 195,047 (25%)

Here are some key county numbers:

Adams County (northern Denver suburbs, leans Democratic)

Republicans: 34%
Democrats: 38%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Jefferson County (western Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 40%
Democrats: 32%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Arapahoe County (southern and eastern Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 33%
Unaffiliated: 24%

Larimer County (northern Colorado, Ft. Collins, rural, key swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 30%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Here is an analysis of yesterday's ballot return report:

http://completecolorado.com/pagetwo/2014/10/27/2014-midterm-all-mail-voting-spikes-early-turnout-compared-to-2010/

If you're keeping track, yes, today is looking even better for the GOP than yesterday.  Absolutely amazing numbers so far.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

[Recalcuate]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

Well, stupid question of mine really because CO has same-day registration - so of course you can vote on election day too ...

[backtored]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the same, especially early next week.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

[backtored]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

[backtored]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

[Tender Branson]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

These laws are not awful, but in the case of the US (which does not have a central population registry) just a little bit error-prone and maybe not really that thought-through.

But at least they guarantee some 100% coverage, meaning that every citizen who wants to vote also gets a chance to vote and not just those who are registered weeks in advance.

Virtually every country in Europe uses this 100%-system, only the Anglo-countries exclude quite a few people from registration, with the US being the worst example (50 million unregistered voters, who would actually be eligible to vote).

The CO-law should of course be checked and made more fail-safe. A good way to do so would be to look at voting systems in European countries that have a history of working well, no voter fraud, 100% coverage and high turnout and copy them. The Austrian and Swedish models would not be all too bad.

[Lief 🗽]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

[Recalcuate]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

I am all for ease of access to vote, however, I draw the line at same-day registration. There's very little controls to stop a person from crossing state lines and registering same day.

Voting is a right, but my rights are infringed if those that are not qualified to vote are not properly vetted. There's a reason most states have a cutoff prior to the election.

[Tender Branson]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

I am all for ease of access to vote, however, I draw the line at same-day registration. There's very little controls to stop a person from crossing state lines and registering same day.

Voting is a right, but my rights are infringed if those that are not qualified to vote are not properly vetted. There's a reason most states have a cutoff prior to the election.

There could be a requirement that you can only register on election day by providing proof of in-state residency for at least 1 month before election day. The question is just how this should be enforced (once again due to the lack of a population register).

[Gass3268]

Connecticut, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Washington DC all have same day voter registration. There has never been an issue. California will start allowing same day voter registration next year.

[tmthforu94]

Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?

[backtored]

Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?

Probably, and yes