Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[backtored]

Colorado 11/3 PM update

Total votes: 1463766

R: 590,653 (41.3%) (2010: 39.5%)
D: 469,900 (32.1%) (2010: 33.6%)
U: 403,213 (27.6%) (2010: 26.9%)

Total Republican lead: 8.2%, over 120,000 votes.

Nate Cohn tweeted an update, and apparently we’re now at over 1.5 million counted, and it is still R+8.1.  Compare that to 2010’s R+5.9.

I think we’re probably at something like 80 to 85 percent of the electorate.  You might get another 300,000 or 400,000 late tonight and tomorrow.  But the electorate should look something like R+6 to R+8, exceeding the 2010 gap that Republicans held.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

[Recalcuate]

Colorado PM update

Republicans holding stable at R+8

Republicans - 590,653 (40.3%)
Democrats - 469,900 (32.1%)
Independant/Other - 403,213 (27.6%)

The total banked ballots are 1,463,766 (80.4% of 2010 total vote of 1,821,028)

Assuming turnout equals 2010
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+3.2%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.5%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+28.7%

Bumping turnout to 2.0 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.1%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+11.3%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.8%

Bumping turnout to 2.2 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be R+1.5%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+7.4%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+13.4%

The 2010 vote in Colorado finished R+5.9 (39.5% R, 33.6% D, 26.9% I)

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

[Recalcuate]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

In fairness, people seem to be expecting 2-2.1 million this year which would make that 65% or so of the expected electorate. Really hard to say. In Oregon about 25% of ballots are dropped off on the day, and about 5% is same-day registration. So odds are 30% will come in tomorrow.

It's very hard to model what the Election Day balloting will be in CO. There's bound to be a lot of confusion where people are supposed to vote because the place they normally vote may be eliminated.

In any event, the Dems will have to bring out roughly as many Democrats as the Republicans do to bring the election to the 2010 R+5.9 level. Quite possible, but who knows.

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

[Lief 🗽]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

Udall leads indies 46-37 according to PPP. But party registration and party ID are of course different things, so it's hard to tell.

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

I'm guessing he leads unafilliateds by double digits. He's going to need to score the high 50s in order to get close to Gardener.

[philly09]

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

[Lief 🗽]

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

Where do you get these updates?

[Recalcuate]

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

Sourcing? Don't see it on the SoS or Magellan websites.

[philly09]

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

Sourcing? Don't see it on the SoS or Magellan websites.

Nate Cohn's twitter

[backtored]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

We won't even get close to 2 million.

[philly09]

Any news out of KY?

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

We won't even get close to 2 million.

Ok bro, see you tomorrow night.

[philly09]

Here's the long awaited update from CO

1,586,226 votes have been counted.  R: 39.7, D: 32.2

Those figures include a sizable 36706 votes from Denver/Boulder out of the 209303 received so far today.  Among ballots counted so far today, it's R 34.8, D 31.4.

Today's pace wouldn't get Dems where they want to be. Another 500,000 ballots at this pace would yield R+6.6 at 2.086m votes.


Democrats should hope that there are additional Denver/Boulder ballots tonight, and then Dems would still need to far much better tmro

[Panda Express]

GOP advantage drops from 8.0% to 7.5% with that latest Denver/Boulder batch

[KCDem]

^^Dems are on track to improve as they have been doing every day. Excellent news! Mark Udall will win reelection!

[Recalcuate]

Here's the long awaited update from CO

1,586,226 votes have been counted.  R: 39.7, D: 32.2

Those figures include a sizable 36706 votes from Denver/Boulder out of the 209303 received so far today.  Among ballots counted so far today, it's R 34.8, D 31.4.

Today's pace wouldn't get Dems where they want to be. Another 500,000 ballots at this pace would yield R+6.6 at 2.086m votes.


Democrats should hope that there are additional Denver/Boulder ballots tonight, and then Dems would still need to far much better tmro

R+3 won't get the Dems to R+6. My guess is that these numbers will push back toward the R+8 when the less D-leaning counties report in the AM.

At the end of the day, it could very well be an R+7 sample when all is said and done.

[Matty]

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

[backtored]

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

[Matty]

You know, this chicken sh**t tactic of democratic areas waiting till the last minute to report votes is really getting old.

[Panda Express]

You know, this chicken sh**t tactic of democratic areas waiting till the last minute to report votes is really getting old.

Reporting your votes is like going to a party. You don't want to be the first to report your votes just like you don't want to be the first ones at a party.

[KCDem]

You know, this chicken sh**t tactic of democratic areas waiting till the last minute to report votes is really getting old.

Sorry Democratic areas have more votes.

[philly09]

Per Nate"s twitter:

the gop counties have reported more than the dem counties

[Matty]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.