Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Lief 🗽]

I can see CO turning into an all-nighter (which would be fun).

I definitely think the margin is going to be less than 1% there either way. Probably won't know the winner for a few days.

[King]

Lief, great sig BTW. Shameful the South exist. The good news is that in the long term their pro-poverty ideology is self-consuming and so their banana republics will cease to be one day.

[backtored]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

[Person Man]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

Is there much of a difference?

[njwes]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.

[backtored]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

Things haven't actually changed much at all for the last week. The turnout numbers are better for the GOP than expected, but there are still three voting hours left and things could change quickly. Udall could still win but he probably won't. As it's been for a while.

[backtored]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

Is there much of a difference?

In-person votes are not mail-in votes, which are dropped off at a voting center or mailed to the clerk. Most votes today are not in-person, but rather mailed, do the Democrats' in-person advantage isn't nearly what they need.

[Smash255]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

If the in person votes hold at D+4 and it winds up being about 25% of the total vote it helps Udall.  If it winds up evening out and/or it only makes up 15% or so of the total vote, helps Gardner.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.

[Person Man]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

If the in person votes hold at D+4 and it winds up being about 25% of the total vote it helps Udall.  If it winds up evening out and/or it only makes up 15% or so of the total vote, helps Gardner.

yeah...

[philly09]

Colorado update: 1,756,240 ballots counted, R 39.2, D 31.9

[Recalcuate]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.

Gardner. Democrats have about R+5 modeled into their polls that are tied according to 538. It's running at about R+7 at this point in time. Democrat turnout is down about 1% from 2010. Indy turnout is up. The Republican vote is about flat.

Obviously the vote today can move that a tad, but those are the goalposts.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/unskewed-polls-early-voting-edition/

[Lief 🗽]

Just a postmortem on Colorado: final party registration looks to have been R +5.4.