Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia:

Early voting figures by race look good - but more so bad.

Through Tuesday, 2014:

Total Votes Cast: 239,749

Whites: 66.7%
Blacks: 28.3%
Other: 4.0%
Latino: 0.5%
Asian: 0.5%

And to put it into perspective, here are the figures for the entire period of early voting in 2010:

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Get it together, minorities: nobody's going to take you seriously if you don't vote.

[Miles]

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[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I kinda wish they wouldn't release this information, means there could be less surprises election day.

[RogueBeaver]

More NV # from Ralston.

[Mogrovejo]

Georgia:

Early voting figures by race look good - but more so bad.

Through Tuesday, 2014:

Total Votes Cast: 239,749

Whites: 66.7%
Blacks: 28.3%
Other: 4.0%
Latino: 0.5%
Asian: 0.5%

And to put it into perspective, here are the figures for the entire period of early voting in 2010:

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Get it together, minorities: nobody's going to take you seriously if you don't vote.

What's your source for those numbers?

Michael McDonald has them (as of today) at 62.9% white, 27.9% black and 8% new registration/unknown race, which would be pretty decent numbers for the Dems. Yours look much worse - as if unknown race EVs are distributed heavily toward whites and 'other'.

[Adam Griffin]

As of 10/20:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 241,920
Ballots Cast/Returned: 185,387

As of 10/19 (First Week + Sunday)

Historic Public Voter File Data (Based on Primary Voting History)
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 156,106

Republican 43.1%
Democrat 39.5%
Independent 6.1%
No Data 11.3%

(It should be noted that public voter file data/primary voting history skews Republican these days, due to a near-supermajority of Georgians living in Republican-dominant counties, so the numbers are quite possibly even better than they'd appear.

Numbers appear to be moving in Dems' direction, relatively speaking.

Through 10/22:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 348,768*
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 281,185

Republican: 42.1% (-0.4)
Democrat: 39.1% (-1.0)
Independent: 5.7% (-0.4)
No Data: 13.1% (+1.

* Through 10/23


Racial breakdowns are also moving favorably:

Through 10/22:

Total Votes Cast: 281,185

Whites: 66.3% (down from 66.7% on Tuesday)
Blacks: 28.6% (up from 28.3% on Tuesday)
Other: 4.2% (up from 4.0% on Tuesday)
Latino: 0.5% (same as Tuesday)
Asian: 0.5% (same as Tuesday)

And to put it into perspective, here are the figures for early voting for 2010:

Total Votes Cast: 678,939

Whites: 66.5%
Blacks: 29.0%
Other: 3.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Latino: 0.4%

What's your source for those numbers?

Michael McDonald has them (as of today) at 62.9% white, 27.9% black and 8% new registration/unknown race, which would be pretty decent numbers for the Dems. Yours look much worse - as if unknown race EVs are distributed heavily toward whites and 'other'.

It's coming from a public voter file system that I have access to, which uses SoS information. I need to track down SoS' exact file so see why there's such a big discrepancy. Perhaps he's counting ABMs that haven't been returned (which my race breakdowns don't), but I wouldn't think there's that big of a racial difference between those that have been returned and those that haven't to cause such an effect.

[Miles]

Almost 100K votes cast in LA. Racially, its been pretty steady since the first day, at 67% white, 31% black. The partisan split is 53D 34R 13I.

[Miles]

The first day on NC in-person early voting was yesterday. This is from roguemapper at RRH:

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[Tender Branson]

The first day on NC in-person early voting was yesterday. This is from roguemapper at RRH:

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Not bad, but only 4.5% of the total 2010-vote.

[backtored]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

[Miles]

Here's a good page to bookmark for NC.

Its breaks down the early vote by party, county, district, etc.

[backtored]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

That is absurd.

[backtored]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

Yes, Democrats will likely narrow the margins. But there is only so much narrowing you can do as returned ballots accumulate.

[Miles]

NC update: About 3/4 as many votes this year have been cast compared to this time in 2010. Keep in mind yesterday was only the second day of early voting while it was the eighth day in 2010.

Also, turnout with Independents seems to be improving the most vis-a-vis 2010:

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

That is absurd.

Considering your past analysis... and how much has been thrown in your face recently, probably better that you not be soooo declarative.

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston's update for today. He said on Twitter that with this pattern, Pubs win LG first, AG would flip next, then NV-4 and finally Assembly.

[Lief 🗽]

Good blog with updates on NC early voting

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats continue to chip away at Republican's lead in Florida.

GOP led by 9.6 Friday morning, 9.2 Saturday morning, and are down to 8.4 this morning. Dems should get another boost today with "Souls to the Polls" voting.

[Miles]

In LA, more than 150K early votes were cast as of yesterday; thats not quite half of the 2012 total, but its already twice as many as 2010's total. 'Pretty steady at 66% White 32% Black.

[RogueBeaver]

NV: Dems won Clark yesterday by 42 votes out of over 12k cast. Pubs still hold a net lead there.

[IceSpear]

Democrats continue to chip away at Republican's lead in Florida.

GOP led by 9.6 Friday morning, 9.2 Saturday morning, and are down to 8.4 this morning. Dems should get another boost today with "Souls to the Polls" voting.

Wonderful news! The criminal must be terrified.

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston: Pubs won Washoe 892-610, Clark 4285-4117 yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

IOWA update:

D, R, I all had a big jump in absentee requests over the weekend, but the Dems had the most (like in the previous days).

That means out of 460.000 requests, the Ds now have ca. a 5% advantage over the Rs.

That is important, because the 460.000 requests are already ca. 40% of the expected overall turnout.

That means Republicans will need a good election day showing to make it a tie overall.