Early voting, absentee requests & statistics
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  Early voting, absentee requests & statistics
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Author Topic: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics  (Read 24982 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 16, 2014, 01:46:03 PM »
« edited: September 24, 2014, 07:13:19 AM by Tender Branson »

Absentee ballots are already being sent out in NC, PA and GA:

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar

Prof. McDonald tracks the returned ones:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oCBdr7Mu_PzF454sbZDmIpYMlehTzISDLNxeJKOTGtA/edit?pli=1#gid=0

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2014, 07:13:40 AM »

Total number of absentee ballots requested so far in Iowa:

121,812 (52.1% D, 27.2% R, 20.8% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

2010 total:

349,216 (43.7% D, 38.0% R, 18.3% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2010_early_vote
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2014, 07:31:44 AM »

Iowa Absentee Ballots Have Nearly Doubled Since 2010

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PAK Man
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2014, 08:09:59 AM »

It wasn't mentioned in the article, but in-person early voting in Iowa starts tomorrow.
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2014, 09:18:13 AM »

Good news!
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2014, 01:13:01 PM »

It wasn't mentioned in the article, but in-person early voting in Iowa starts tomorrow.

FS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 12:44:46 PM »

FL absentee ballots requested 2014: 2,250,414 (42% GOP, 39% DEM)

FL absentee ballots requested 2010: 2,172,599 (49% GOP, 36% DEM)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2014, 01:10:13 PM »

FL absentee ballots requested 2014: 2,250,414 (42% GOP, 39% DEM)

FL absentee ballots requested 2010: 2,172,599 (49% GOP, 36% DEM)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

LOL @ da Florida Democratic Party...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2014, 01:39:54 PM »

FL absentee ballots requested 2014: 2,250,414 (42% GOP, 39% DEM)

FL absentee ballots requested 2010: 2,172,599 (49% GOP, 36% DEM)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

LOL @ da Florida Democratic Party...

Luckily the Dems are doing much better even if they're still behind. Let's not forget the criminal only won by 1% in 2010.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2014, 02:39:44 AM »

The Dem. lead in IA absentee requests is now down to 9%:

44.8% DEM
35.4% GOP
19.8% IND

The final 2010 Dem-margin (which was a bad year for Dems) was 5.7%

2012 was D+11 (requested) and D+10 (returned), when Obama won Iowa.

2008 was D+18 (when Obama won IA big).

It would be good if the Dems could hold at least an 8% advantage this year.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2014, 04:04:49 AM »

At first I thought I understood, but then I realized I didn't. Not sure if the charts are formatted properly for GA...can anyone explain to me what all of this "w/2010 vote", "w/o 2010 vote" and other categories even mean? I can't make sense of all of these numbers for my state...
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2014, 04:05:24 AM »

At first I thought I understood, but then I realized I didn't. Not sure if the charts are formatted properly for GA with all of the racial breakdowns included...can anyone explain to me what all of this "w/2010 vote", "w/o 2010 vote" and other categories even mean? I can't make sense of all of these numbers for my state...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2014, 06:18:20 AM »

It's a breakdown of people who requested absentees so far this year and if they voted in 2010 or not.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2014, 08:35:34 AM »

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2014, 08:37:07 AM »

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.

The spread among returned ones is meaningless, because they lag behind the "requested" numbers.

The Dem. spread among the "requested" is now down to just 8% ...
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2014, 10:35:16 AM »

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.

The spread among returned ones is meaningless, because they lag behind the "requested" numbers.

The Dem. spread among the "requested" is now down to just 8% ...

It looks like it's about 10% now.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2014, 01:00:54 PM »

Democrats advantage over GOP in the early vote in different states at the moment:

Requested:

Maine: +17.2%
Iowa: +8%
Arkansas: +3.5%
North Carolina: +0.6%

Florida: R +3.1%

Returned:

Maine: +14.4%
Iowa: +9.8%
North Carolina: +6.6%

Florida: R +14.4%


Looking really bad in Florida. Sad But great in Maine! Maybe Bellows has a chance after all. Tongue
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KCDem
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2014, 08:10:37 PM »

Democrats advantage over GOP in the early vote in different states at the moment:

Requested:

Maine: +17.2%
Iowa: +8%
Arkansas: +3.5%
North Carolina: +0.6%

Florida: R +3.1%

Returned:

Maine: +14.4%
Iowa: +9.8%
North Carolina: +6.6%

Florida: R +14.4%


Looking really bad in Florida. Sad But great in Maine! Maybe Bellows has a chance after all. Tongue

That's not how it works. If Republicans lead absentee voting by less than double digits in Florida, they're in deep sh*t.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 07:56:56 AM »

Eric, it's actually very good news for Florida Dems.

See here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198822.msg4327229#msg4327229

In 2010, when Scott won by 1%, Republicans had a 13% edge in requested ballots.

Now, Republicans only have a 3% edge ...

The returned ballots are lagging way behind because most people wait until the last week before election day to return the ballots in case there is something important happening in the last weeks.

ME, AR and NC are meaningless because of the small number of requested ballots so far.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 03:52:56 PM »

Eric, it's actually very good news for Florida Dems.

See here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198822.msg4327229#msg4327229

In 2010, when Scott won by 1%, Republicans had a 13% edge in requested ballots.

Now, Republicans only have a 3% edge ...

The returned ballots are lagging way behind because most people wait until the last week before election day to return the ballots in case there is something important happening in the last weeks.

ME, AR and NC are meaningless because of the small number of requested ballots so far.

Yup. Checkpoint Charlie's got this. The criminal better get ready for his new residence:

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Brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 01:56:43 PM »

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 06:19:11 PM »

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

...bugger.
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KCDem
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 08:04:39 PM »

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

That's irrelevant since Democrats are banking unlikely voters early while Republicans bank their feeble and senile base.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2014, 09:19:44 AM »

Meanwhile in Iowa:

Democrats take back the lead in new daily absentee requests from Republicans:



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/524196155052556288

Also, more people in IA have now requested absentees than in all of 2010, and there are still 2 weeks to go.
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Miles
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2014, 09:25:13 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 09:29:54 AM by Miles »

Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably the last day they lead in the absentee vote.
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