Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Mr. Illini]

Awesome news out of Colorado and North Carolina, and we are still close in Iowa considering Democrats always destroy Republicans in early voting.

#RidingtheWave

Nah.

[Adam Griffin]

Some updated Georgia numbers. I've downloaded the huge absentee list to assess the count of all ballots cast and requested up through Monday (10/20), and also sorted it to show how many of those ballots have been cast and returned. In addition to this, I'm using the public voter file I have access to in order to break down early voters (through Sunday; doesn't include today's voters) by "party" (which is assessed from party primary voting records).

As of 10/20:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 241,920
Ballots Cast/Returned: 185,387

As of 10/19 (First Week + Sunday)

Historic Public Voter File Data (Based on Primary Voting History)
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 156,106

Republican 43.1%
Democrat 39.5%
Independent 6.1%
No Data 12.3%

(It should be noted that public voter file data/primary voting history skews Republican these days, due to a near-supermajority of Georgians living in Republican-dominant counties, so the numbers are quite possibly even better than they'd appear.

[Matty]

Are those numbers good or bad for Nunn?

[Adam Griffin]

Are those numbers good or bad for Nunn?

Hard to say considering that I've never done this sort of comparison before. I did just do some sketchy math that attempts to take into account what I know about Georgia's primary dynamics (which is practically everywhere, although to a greater degree of skewing in some areas).

I started out by assessing areas where one party is the dominant force/primary is equivalent to election, which gives you 63% R / 37% D in terms of percentage of population that lives in an area where that party's primary is more influential. I then took what I know about the open primary voting habits of people from the opposite party in such circumstances and tried to reverse engineer numbers to put people where they actually belong. After all of that, I got this:

Democratic: 41.1%
Republican: 37.5%
Independent: 9.1%
No Data: 11.3%

[LeBron]

A non-competitive race for Ohio Governor this year as opposed to 2010 as well as the U.S. Supreme Court siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of our early voting led to a decrease in the # of absentee ballots requested from 2010. Early voting applications were sent to 6 million voters in Ohio with about 750,000 Ohioans requesting or casting an absentee ballot.

The absentee ballots were sent out with federal money, but once Ohio runs out of the money, then it will be the job of the state legislature to appropriate new state funding for sending them out and Secretary of Suppression State Jon Husted will only send them if he chooses to. Obviously, when that time comes, that won't run smoothly.

Early voting requests is also taking a big toll out of Cuyahoga County, the most populous and one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Despite the fact that the leading Democrat, Ed FitzGerald is from here, there's 60,000 less absentee ballots requested this year than in 2010; with only 130,000 requested from our county this year. There's just a huge lack of Democratic enthusiasm that will result in low turnout among many women and minorities.

For the whole state of Ohio, early voting requests are relatively the same as 2010, but there's a -2 shift for absentee requests by Democratic voters and a +1 shift by Republican voters:

2014: Democrats - 55%, Republicans - 25%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 19%
2010: Democrats - 57%, Republicans - 24%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 20%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A non-competitive race for Ohio Governor this year as opposed to 2010 as well as the U.S. Supreme Court siding with the Ohio GOP on cutting a week of our early voting led to a decrease in the # of absentee ballots requested from 2010. Early voting applications were sent to 6 million voters in Ohio with about 750,000 Ohioans requesting or casting an absentee ballot.

The absentee ballots were sent out with federal money, but once Ohio runs out of the money, then it will be the job of the state legislature to appropriate new state funding for sending them out and Secretary of Suppression State Jon Husted will only send them if he chooses to. Obviously, when that time comes, that won't run smoothly.

Early voting requests is also taking a big toll out of Cuyahoga County, the most populous and one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Despite the fact that the leading Democrat, Ed FitzGerald is from here, there's 60,000 less absentee ballots requested this year than in 2010; with only 130,000 requested from our county this year. There's just a huge lack of Democratic enthusiasm that will result in low turnout among many women and minorities.

For the whole state of Ohio, early voting requests are relatively the same as 2010, but there's a -2 shift for absentee requests by Democratic voters and a +1 shift by Republican voters:

2014: Democrats - 55%, Republicans - 25%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 19%
2010: Democrats - 57%, Republicans - 24%, Independent/Unaffiliated - 20%

The numbers in key counties like Franklin paint a far bleaker picture

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston: GOP has been leading early vote for 2 days in Clark. If this trend continues he doesn't see how any D statewide candidates survive.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats now pulling away in new absentee requests in Iowa:



Overall (365.000 requests) it's now D+4 again, a few days ago it was D+2 ...

[Lief 🗽]

Turnout for first day of early voting in Dem-leaning Palm Beach County up 32.5% over 2010

[njwes]

Ralston: GOP has been leading early vote for 2 days in Clark. If this trend continues he doesn't see how any D statewide candidates survive.

This is Clark County Nevada, right? So this means what, that NV-4 could be in play? Seems like a stretch.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes, he says NV-4 could be in play.

[Senator Cris]

http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/

What is this?

[Tender Branson]

http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/

What is this?

The Iowa absentee ballot returns so far.

[Miles]

Here's the report for the first day of LA early voting. I know its super early, but, blacks were at 31% of the ballots cast, which would be good for Landrieu if it holds.

[Mogrovejo]

Ralston: GOP has been leading early vote for 2 days in Clark. If this trend continues he doesn't see how any D statewide candidates survive.

This is Clark County Nevada, right? So this means what, that NV-4 could be in play? Seems like a stretch.

FWIW, Karl Rove just bought $820K in tv ads there.

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/21/conservative-group-horsford-buys-k-ads/17687641/

[Tender Branson]

With more than 400.000 absentee ballots now requested, the Dems had another good day yesterday and stretch their lead to almost 5% again.

[Tender Branson]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

Link?

[cinyc]

In a first, Republicans claim early vote lead in Iowa
Washington Examiner/David M. Drucker

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[RogueBeaver]

Ralston says the Republinami continues building in Clark, Washoe.

[IceSpear]

Ralston says the Republinami continues building in Clark, Washoe.

Does it really matter though? At worst Horsford goes down, and we take it back with ease in 2016.

[Lief 🗽]

Ralston says the Republinami continues building in Clark, Washoe.

Does it really matter though? At worst Horsford goes down, and we take it back with ease in 2016.

Ross Miller is basically the Democrat's only rising star in Nevada. It would suck if he lost the AG's race. Republicans will also easily pick up the state senate now and possibly the assembly.

[RogueBeaver]

Sweeping all statewide posts, perhaps the Senate and losing Ross Miller? I'd call that a BFD.

[IceSpear]

Ah right, I forgot the statewide candidates were up in NV this year. I assume Reid's Lt. Gov pick is already sunk then?

[Tender Branson]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

Link?

The links are on top of the 1st page.