Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[IceSpear]

And the Republican lead in Florida continues to drop, down to 5.9% today from 6.4% yesterday.

It's happening...the criminal will soon be gone... (tears of joy).

[Miles]

NC update:

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wow... those NC stats look impressive.

[backtored]

What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

[Matty]

wow!! Great news.

[Recalcuate]

What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

The math has turnout as follows:

Republicans: 443,240 (41.5%)
Democrats:  337,807 (32.4%)
Independent: 259.947 (24.9%)

Other is about 1.1%

That's just over 1,000,000 votes.
There were just over 1,770,000 votes in the Senate race and 1,821,028 votes cast in 2010. (59% of 2010 numbers).

Assuming similar turnout to 2010, in order to get to R+6 (the infamous Buck election), the remaining ballots have to be R +1.8 (basically R+2). To get to R+4, it has to be D+2.9 (basically D+3).

Only material difference could be that inactive voters were mailed ballots this year as well. We'll see if that inches the turnout numbers higher.

Source: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/Abstract20110630.pdf
 
Good luck with that, Dems. That window is closing quickly.

[morgieb]

Those numbers don't look pretty for us.

[backtored]

What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

The math has turnout as follows:

Republicans: 443,240 (41.5%)
Democrats:  337,807 (32.4%)
Independent: 259.947 (24.9%)

Other is about 1.1%

That's just over 1,000,000 votes.
There were just over 1,770,000 votes cast in 2010. (60% of 2010 numbers).

Assuming similar turnout to 2010, in order to get to R+6 (the infamous Buck election), the remaining ballots have to be R +1.4. To get to R+4, it has to be D+3.
 
Good luck with that.

I'll add that the best day that Democrats have had over the last two weeks was R+2-3 just the other day. Otherwise it has generally held at R+9 or thereabouts. Tomorrow is the last day to mail back ballots--otherwise they have to be dropbped off in-person. In other words, GOTV is getting harder, and not easier at this point.

[KCDem]

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

[Miles]

NC: Less than two days of early voting left and Republicans are just now reaching parity with 2010:

[Recalcuate]

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

New Colorado Numbers:
1,149,745 votes banked.
Republicans - 475,677 votes (41.4%)
Democrats - 371,190 votes (32.3%)
Independents - 290,600 (25.3%)
Other minor parties remains around 1%

Turnout is now at 63% of 2010 turnout of 1.821 million.

Sourcing: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

[Person Man]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

[backtored]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Probably not at this point.b  Disastrous for Democrats

[Recalcuate]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Of course, but to get to R+6, the remaining samples would have to be R+0.7
To get to R+4, the remaining samples would have to be D+4.7
To get to R+1, the remaining samples would have to be D+13

The math is getting increasingly difficult.

The underlying assumption is that turnout reflects 2010. If turn out is greater, the numbers move a bit around the fringes, but the math remains difficult.

[Matty]

According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

[Smash255]

According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

There is no way to really tell that on a narional scale considering quite a few states have no registration by party.  If someone can list out all the states that have early voting and register by party we could perhaps figure that out, but I have a hard time believing it is anywhere near +10 GOP, especially adding NC into the mix.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats once again doing well in Florida, bringing the GOP's lead down from 5.9% yesterday to 5.2% today

[IceSpear]

Democrats once again doing well in Florida, bringing the GOP's lead down from 5.9% yesterday to 5.2% today

Looks like this one might be over. Stupendous news!

[Person Man]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Of course, but to get to R+6, the remaining samples would have to be R+0.7
To get to R+4, the remaining samples would have to be D+4.7
To get to R+1, the remaining samples would have to be D+13

The math is getting increasingly difficult.

The underlying assumption is that turnout reflects 2010. If turn out is greater, the numbers move a bit around the fringes, but the math remains difficult.

According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

And if Colorado is at R+9, its not unreasonable to expect R+5-7.

[Bacon King]

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

New Colorado Numbers:
1,149,745 votes banked.
Republicans - 475,677 votes (41.4%)
Democrats - 371,190 votes (32.3%)
Independents - 290,600 (25.3%)
Other minor parties remains around 1%

Turnout is now at 63% of 2010 turnout of 1.821 million.

Sourcing: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

Active Registered Republican voters who have already voted: 50.1%
Active Registered Democratic voters who have already voted: 41.5%
Active Registered Unaffiliated voters who have already voted: 28.2%

source for the total number of voters by party affiliation here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2014/September/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, through Thursday. We have broken the 2010 early voting record by more than 115,000 votes, and my original projections of 750,000 - 800,000 seem to have been too conservative. It's likely that we finish this up closer to 900,000 early votes. The black share of the vote continues to increase and is on track to be 3 to 3.5 points higher than 2010, but we're probably near or at the peak of it in terms of percentage of the electorate. Females are also a slightly larger share of the early electorate than in 2010. Both likely Dems and Reps continue to decrease as a % of the identifiable electorate, but Dems maintain a overall lead in this category by close to 1 point. This early vote electorate as a whole seems to skew a bit older than 2010's, but in Georgia, ideology and voting preference is fairly uniform across age groups.

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[backtored]

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2. 

[IceSpear]

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2. 

RIP Udall

[morgieb]

Democrats once again doing well in Florida, bringing the GOP's lead down from 5.9% yesterday to 5.2% today

Looks like this one might be over. Stupendous news!

What were the figures in Florida in 2010 at this point, out of curiosity?

[Flake]

snip

I don't see him coming out of this unless Democrats have a big surge in the next four days.

snip

RIP Perdue