Early voting, absentee requests & statistics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:41:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Early voting, absentee requests & statistics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12
Author Topic: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics  (Read 24983 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: October 31, 2014, 05:56:53 PM »


I believe Republicans had a 13% lead in 2010, and Dems lost by a single point.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: October 31, 2014, 05:57:45 PM »

Looks like Checkpoint Charlie is dominating!
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: October 31, 2014, 09:05:51 PM »

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Percentage of active voters by party registration who have already voted: (with percentage point change from last update)

Republican: 53.0% (+2.9)
Democratic: 43.8% (+2.3)
Unaffiliated: 31.3% (+3.1)
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: October 31, 2014, 10:34:28 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2014, 11:05:27 PM by Recalcuate »

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2.  


I don't see the full link to the second update on the SoS site, so I can't update the Minor parties, but....

Received ballots = roughly 67% of the 2010 vote total of 1.821 million.

Assuming similar turnout:
To get to R+6, Democrats (Buck 2010) remaining sample would need to be D +0.4.
To get to R+3, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +9.4.
To get to R+1, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +15.5.

It's the first time that Democrats need to send more bodies to the polls than Republicans to get to R+6.

As Yogi used to say, it's getting late, early.

Note: Slightly adjusted to combine Other vote with Unaffiliated vote to match Bactored's totals.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: October 31, 2014, 10:52:07 PM »

Splendid facts for the Good Guys!
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: November 01, 2014, 12:30:39 AM »

Ralston says Democrats are up to a 1,200-ballot lead in the Clark County part of NV-04.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: November 01, 2014, 03:42:14 AM »

Interactive Georgia Early Vote Map: BK and I worked on collecting 2010 data by county tonight in order to bring you this - a map that compares 2010 early voting totals to the current 2014 early voting totals for each Georgia county. We still have yesterday (Friday's) totals to update in the VAN (hopefully today), but by and large, the picture is painted.

To make everything relative until it is updated with the final data, counties with 2014 vote totals of 106% or greater are out-performing the state as a whole in terms of the increase in early voters between 2010-2014; those less than that are obviously under-performing.

Counties shaded red are <95% of their 2010 totals; white is 95-105% of 2010 totals; green is >105%. There's a legend on the actual map below (for example: "0.98" equals 98%). You can click on each county for more details/percentages.

2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout

Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: November 01, 2014, 10:45:01 AM »

^ Thanks, Griffin and BK!


From roguemapper at RRH:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: November 01, 2014, 10:49:03 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2014, 11:32:41 AM by IDS Speaker Flo »

Early voting for Lake County, Florida

Democrats: 8,248
Republicans: 12,732
Independents: 3,708
INT (?): 918

I'll get a county map up later if I have time.
Logged
Donnie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: November 01, 2014, 11:20:18 AM »

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2.  


I don't see the full link to the second update on the SoS site, so I can't update the Minor parties, but....

Received ballots = roughly 67% of the 2010 vote total of 1.821 million.

Assuming similar turnout:
To get to R+6, Democrats (Buck 2010) remaining sample would need to be D +0.4.
To get to R+3, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +9.4.
To get to R+1, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +15.5.

It's the first time that Democrats need to send more bodies to the polls than Republicans to get to R+6.

As Yogi used to say, it's getting late, early

Based on that ,it looks Gardner (R) wins by 2-3% in the end.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: November 01, 2014, 12:05:35 PM »

Ralston's take after early voting has finished in NV: Senate likely gone for Democrats, but the Assembly is looking better. Miller, Marshall could still get by on their crossover appeal.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: November 01, 2014, 03:06:27 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2014, 03:10:02 PM by Lief »

In-person early voting is done in Durham, NC: There were a total of 33,291 votes cast this year, an impressive increase of 33.6% over 2010.

Early voting in Orange County, N.C. (that's heavily-Dem Chapel Hill) finishes with 23,195 voters. That's 43% higher than in 2010%!

Dominating!
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: November 01, 2014, 03:48:50 PM »

Whoah, did you know in Alaska you can cast an early vote via fax or the internet
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: November 01, 2014, 04:53:21 PM »


That's understandable. Isn't half of that state basically a giant glacier in November?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: November 01, 2014, 05:06:27 PM »

Georgia, Final Early Vote Totals and Analysis:

Wow. I'm not sure what it looks like in every other state (I'll compare later), but the total share of early voters in Georgia jumped from 678,000 in 2010 to 930,000 in 2014.

The black share of the electorate jumped by close to four percentage points (from 29.0% in 2010 to 32.7% in 2014). The white share of the electorate shrank by more than five percentage points (from 66.5% in 2010 to 61.1% in 2014).

When we go by party affiliation based on primary voting record (on a statewide level, this is more accurate than it'd appear and I've explained in detail before why this is), the early vote electorate in Georgia effectively swung from R+6 in 2010 to D+1 in 2014.

By age and by gender, we saw a fairly steady hold between 2010 and 2014. Females were 55% in 2010; closer to 56% in 2014. The youngest and oldest brackets grew and shrank very modestly, respectively, while the 51-64 age group saw the largest growth between 2010 and 2014.



Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.



Here are two maps that show 2014 early vote turnout compared to 2010 early turnout. The first one shows it in sheer numbers; the second one shows it in a "trend-like" format (counties that saw EV percentage growth greater than the state as a whole are green; those that saw less or shrank are in red).

2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout



TREND - 2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout

Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: November 01, 2014, 07:12:03 PM »

Griff,

With numbers like this, do you think Nunn can win on election night? Most polls have been showing a slight Perdue lead with a likely runoff, but these are very impressive figures for the D's at this stage.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: November 01, 2014, 07:17:08 PM »

Griff,

With numbers like this, do you think Nunn can win on election night? Most polls have been showing a slight Perdue lead with a likely runoff, but these are very impressive figures for the D's at this stage.

If she (or Carter) can hit 29-30% with whites and blacks hold at 90% D, then they get a majority when combined with this math; perhaps with even a bit less of the white vote, as I haven't done calculations since blacks were at 31% of the electorate.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: November 02, 2014, 10:46:59 AM »

3 Million people have now voted in Florida; Democrats have cut the GOP lead to 4.3%, down from 4.8 yesterday
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: November 02, 2014, 10:57:48 AM »

So the South is going in one direction and the mountain states are going in the opposite direction. Funny.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: November 02, 2014, 10:58:47 AM »


Drop those drawers, Mr. Scott!
Logged
OkThen
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 273


Political Matrix
E: -2.32, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: November 02, 2014, 12:48:26 PM »

Supposedly there has been a big late surge towards Dems in CO early voting, but it could be too little too late... https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/528964024789368832
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: November 02, 2014, 12:51:23 PM »

^ Yesterday was the first day Democrats returned more ballots than Republicans.

Also from Cohn:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

2010 was R +6.8. Udall will need more of a cushion than that, though, as Gardner is gonna obviously run ahead of Buck with Indies.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: November 02, 2014, 12:58:16 PM »

Dems still down 8.9 in early voting in CO. Considering today is Sunday, I really don't see how they will get anywhere close to the R+6 in 2010 early voting.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: November 02, 2014, 12:59:37 PM »

Man Nate Cohn really spinning things the last few weeks...
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: November 02, 2014, 01:05:23 PM »

Day by day ballot returns in Colorado:



Looks like the Democratic Colorado last minute mail-in ballot return wave is building!
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 12 queries.