Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Miles]

With early voting finished in NC:



Democrats cast 25% more than 2010, Republicans 6% and Indies/Libertarians 45% (!).

And where each party's votes came from:

[Lief 🗽]

Damn. Terrific work from Hagan's campaign team.

[Miles]

A bit more on the NC early voting totals.

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Further, 54% of those Democrats are black, suggesting Democrats are mobilizing their voters.

[Lief 🗽]

Anyone know why Iowa hasn't updated their statistics since Thursday?

In Florida, looks like Souls to the Polls was a smashing success today!

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[Lief 🗽]

Souls to the Polls was a HUGE success in Florida yesterday!

GOP lead on absentees/early vote now down to just 3.3%, from 4.3% yesterday!

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/souls-to-the-polls-gives-dems-major-boost-close-early-vote-gap-to-100k.html

[Tender Branson]

So, when is today's CO vote dump coming in ?

Let's see if Dems continue to close strong there, like yesterday.

[Smash255]

Souls to the Polls was a HUGE success in Florida yesterday!

GOP lead on absentees/early vote now down to just 3.3%, from 4.3% yesterday!

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/souls-to-the-polls-gives-dems-major-boost-close-early-vote-gap-to-100k.html

Do we have anything concrete on what the early vote was in 2010?

[backtored]

So, when is today's CO vote dump coming in ?

Let's see if Dems continue to close strong there, like yesterday.

They didn't report El Paso County, so the day wasn't as good for Democrats as it seems.

This morning's report will probably have very little new material, but this afternoon and especially tomorrow morning will be a pretty good look at what the electorate will actually be.  Frankly, I think what is at stake at this point is the gubernatorial race.

[Badger]

Democrats now up to about a 7,000 absentee ballot returned lead in Iowa.

Not great, but at least better than it was last week.

And the Republican lead in Florida continues to drop, down to 5.9% today from 6.4% yesterday.

Anyone have any updates on this?

IMHO, for the reasons Miles and Backtored (and now TB) have all stated, Udall is likely finished. Of the remaining "swing races" in IA, AK and KS (which Democrats need to sweep if Udall loses in order to firmly keep the Senate), I'm guessing (with minimal certainty) the one Republicans are most likely to win is IA.

[backtored]

Here are some raw numbers out this morning for Colorado:

Republicans lead by eight percentage points, 40 to 32, over Democrats.  That is a roughly 112,000 vote advantage.

R: 558,000
D: 446,000
I: 359,000

I think this afternoon’s report will be much more interesting—and telling, too. 

I still think that the final tally rounds out to somewhere between 1.8 million (2010 turnout) and 2 million.  That means that we might be at or even over 75% at this point.  That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t dominate the final quarter of the electorate and pull the final number down to R+4 or R+5, but I don’t think that is likely and I still don’t think that will get Udall across the line.

[KCDem]

Here are some raw numbers out this morning for Colorado:

Republicans lead by eight percentage points, 40 to 32, over Democrats.  That is a roughly 112,000 vote advantage.

R: 558,000
D: 446,000
I: 359,000

I think this afternoon’s report will be much more interesting—and telling, too. 

I still think that the final tally rounds out to somewhere between 1.8 million (2010 turnout) and 2 million.  That means that we might be at or even over 75% at this point.  That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t dominate the final quarter of the electorate and pull the final number down to R+4 or R+5, but I don’t think that is likely and I still don’t think that will get Udall across the line.

It was R + 6.8 in 2010 and Bennett still won. If it's at R + 4 - R + 5, they will lose. Also, unaffiliateds favor Udall so the higher their numbers are, the better for Dems.

[backtored]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

[Miles]

Map of NC early vote.



Overall, about what you'd expect.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

[backtored]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

I have no idea.  There were 20,000 El Paso County votes that weren't counted over the weekend, and I don't know if this includes those tabulations. 

[Recalcuate]

From Magellian via the SOS.

Democrats cut the lead from R+9 to R+8. (Although still technically R+9 due to rounding).

Republicans - 556,111 (40.5%)
Democrats - 444,556 (32.4%)
Unaffiliated/Other - 371,382 (27.1%)

Total votes: 1,372,049 (77.5% of 2010 total of 1,821,028)

To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.5
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+12.7
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+20.8

We'll see what the afternoon totals bring.

According to printout, 2010 numbers ended up R+5.9.

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

[Matty]

So basically the dems are guaranteed to get it down to r+6?

[Recalcuate]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

I have no idea.  There were 20,000 El Paso County votes that weren't counted over the weekend, and I don't know if this includes those tabulations.  

The ElPaso numbers increased by roughly 30K since the 10/31 AM filing. SoS never filed a 10/31 PM update. Magellan took down the 10/31 PM numbers. So it's pretty hard to tell. My guess would be yes though.

[Tender Branson]

Well, if Dems can somehow bring it down to R+7 with the final release tomorrow afternoon (will there be one ?), then I could see some path for Udall (incl. the election day voters).

But Udall would have to perform really strongly with Indy voters.

[Recalcuate]

Well, if Dems can somehow bring it down to R+7 with the final release tomorrow afternoon (will there be one ?), then I could see some path for Udall (with the election day voters).

But Udall would have to perform really strongly with Indy voters.

SoS indicated that there will be a Monday and Tuesday release. These numbers are coming from Magellan Strategies, not the SoS. Eventually, the numbers reconcile.

[backtored]

So basically the dems are guaranteed to get it down to r+6?

No. Shaving down two full points with three-fourths of the electorate already in would take a really strong Democratic finish. It is entirely possible, but not at all guaranteed.

[IceSpear]

Souls to the Polls was a HUGE success in Florida yesterday!

GOP lead on absentees/early vote now down to just 3.3%, from 4.3% yesterday!

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/souls-to-the-polls-gives-dems-major-boost-close-early-vote-gap-to-100k.html

DOMINATING!!!!

[Donnie]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

[Tender Branson]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

66% of all ballots cast.

[Dan the Roman]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

In fairness, people seem to be expecting 2-2.1 million this year which would make that 65% or so of the expected electorate. Really hard to say. In Oregon about 25% of ballots are dropped off on the day, and about 5% is same-day registration. So odds are 30% will come in tomorrow.