Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[philly09]

Well this is interesting:

http://kdvr.com/2014/11/03/republicans-sue-boulder-county-clerk-over-election-challenges/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

I think it's a bad idea to correlate too much from 2010 to this race. On either side. Unless the vote mix is exactly the same as last year, then it's frankly, a different sample.

[Matty]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

I think it's a bad idea to correlate too much from 2010 to this race. On either side. Unless the vote mix is exactly the same as last year, then it's frankly, a different sample.

That's a good point, Polnut. Now I feel like an idiot for even posting that. haha. Anyway, Cohn reporting that Boulder numbers are basically done. Denver is probably still out there, which is interesting.

[5280]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  It's like wishing for history to repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling.  

[IceSpear]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

[KCDem]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

[5280]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

KCDem on ignore for his stupidity.

[Badger]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

KCDem on ignore for his stupidity.

You don't want putting stupid posters on ignore to become a trend. Trust me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  It's like wishing for history to repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling.  

There's only one way to know for sure... wait 24 hours.

[Recalcuate]

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

Are they feeding these ballots into the optical readers (or whatever they are using) as they get them or do they have to wait until Election Day in Colorado to process?

[Brittain33]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

Conversely, Republican focus on the early vote in CO, IA, NV is assuming that new GOTV efforts are increasing their turnout rather than, for the first time, banking regular Republican votes before Election Day rather than on that day. Republicans have historically not had a problem with turnout, unlike Dems.

[backtored]

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

Are they feeding these ballots into the optical readers (or whatever they are using) as they get them or do they have to wait until Election Day in Colorado to process?

They are processed as they come in.

[Senator Cris]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

[backtored]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

All correct.

[KCDem]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

Glorious news! Each update Republicans lose their edge. Expect a low 6 point to high 5 point advantage when all is said and done. Too close to call

[Keystone Phil]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

[Person Man]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

And if this is before election day voting, the differential may fall below 5.9. If that happens, the base matters less and the center matters more.

[Recalcuate]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

Main difference is that the D numbers are down as compared to 2010. R is where it was in 2010. The Is picked up the D vote.  That's a material difference. Even if the D's have a 55-45 or 60-40 edge among Is, it's better for Gardner than 90-10 or whatever the D crossover is.

[Eraserhead]

I can see CO turning into an all-nighter (which would be fun).

[backtored]

Lunchtime CO update: GOP leads by 126k and 7.7 pts.

Only at 1.64 million total votes.

[philly09]

In person Colorado voters 54,053, 33.8 D, 29.9 R.

[5280]

Democrats always procrastinate when it comes to voting.

[KCDem]

Democrats always procrastinate when it comes to voting.

Doesn't make the vote count less

[Person Man]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

Maybe even Udall...maybe