Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[KCDem]

Democrats advantage over GOP in the early vote in different states at the moment:

Requested:

Maine: +17.2%
Iowa: +8%
Arkansas: +3.5%
North Carolina: +0.6%

Florida: R +3.1%

Returned:

Maine: +14.4%
Iowa: +9.8%
North Carolina: +6.6%

Florida: R +14.4%


Looking really bad in Florida. But great in Maine! Maybe Bellows has a chance after all.

That's not how it works. If Republicans lead absentee voting by less than double digits in Florida, they're in deep sh*t.

[KCDem]

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

That's irrelevant since Democrats are banking unlikely voters early while Republicans bank their feeble and senile base.

[KCDem]

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

[KCDem]

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

[KCDem]

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

Show me a recent reputable poll of Colorado that wasn't a Democratic "internal"?

[KCDem]

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

Show me a recent reputable poll of Colorado that wasn't a Democratic "internal"?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/politics/colorado-senate-poll/index.html

http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26719752/colorado-senate-close-race-momentum-favors-gardner-poll

None of those are reputable...any others?

[KCDem]

Backtored, he's a troll.

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

Says the junk polling organization?

[KCDem]

Good to see Democrats sweeping the board in early voting! #DemWave

[KCDem]

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

Show me a recent reputable poll of Colorado that wasn't a Democratic "internal"?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/politics/colorado-senate-poll/index.html

http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26719752/colorado-senate-close-race-momentum-favors-gardner-poll

None of those are reputable...any others?

Other than that it's all junk polling.

I agree, all the public polling has been junk. Good thing we have Benenson Strategy Group to tell us where the race stands

[KCDem]

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

[KCDem]

Here are some raw numbers out this morning for Colorado:

Republicans lead by eight percentage points, 40 to 32, over Democrats.  That is a roughly 112,000 vote advantage.

R: 558,000
D: 446,000
I: 359,000

I think this afternoon’s report will be much more interesting—and telling, too. 

I still think that the final tally rounds out to somewhere between 1.8 million (2010 turnout) and 2 million.  That means that we might be at or even over 75% at this point.  That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t dominate the final quarter of the electorate and pull the final number down to R+4 or R+5, but I don’t think that is likely and I still don’t think that will get Udall across the line.

It was R + 6.8 in 2010 and Bennett still won. If it's at R + 4 - R + 5, they will lose. Also, unaffiliateds favor Udall so the higher their numbers are, the better for Dems.

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

I'm guessing he leads unafilliateds by double digits. He's going to need to score the high 50s in order to get close to Gardener.

[KCDem]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

We won't even get close to 2 million.

Ok bro, see you tomorrow night.

[KCDem]

^^Dems are on track to improve as they have been doing every day. Excellent news! Mark Udall will win reelection!

[KCDem]

You know, this chicken sh**t tactic of democratic areas waiting till the last minute to report votes is really getting old.

Sorry Democratic areas have more votes.

[KCDem]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  That like wishing for history repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling. 

Yes, I'm sure someone with the signature "Paul/Cruz 2016!" is a paragon of objectivity.

JUNK SIGNATURE! JUNK USER!

[KCDem]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

Glorious news! Each update Republicans lose their edge. Expect a low 6 point to high 5 point advantage when all is said and done. Too close to call

[KCDem]

Democrats always procrastinate when it comes to voting.

Doesn't make the vote count less