Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Recalcuate]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

[Recalcuate]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

I am all for ease of access to vote, however, I draw the line at same-day registration. There's very little controls to stop a person from crossing state lines and registering same day.

Voting is a right, but my rights are infringed if those that are not qualified to vote are not properly vetted. There's a reason most states have a cutoff prior to the election.

[Recalcuate]

What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

The math has turnout as follows:

Republicans: 443,240 (41.5%)
Democrats:  337,807 (32.4%)
Independent: 259.947 (24.9%)

Other is about 1.1%

That's just over 1,000,000 votes.
There were just over 1,770,000 votes in the Senate race and 1,821,028 votes cast in 2010. (59% of 2010 numbers).

Assuming similar turnout to 2010, in order to get to R+6 (the infamous Buck election), the remaining ballots have to be R +1.8 (basically R+2). To get to R+4, it has to be D+2.9 (basically D+3).

Only material difference could be that inactive voters were mailed ballots this year as well. We'll see if that inches the turnout numbers higher.

Source: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/Abstract20110630.pdf
 
Good luck with that, Dems. That window is closing quickly.

[Recalcuate]

The Democrats easily close the gap in Colorado and abort both Personhood stooges.

New Colorado Numbers:
1,149,745 votes banked.
Republicans - 475,677 votes (41.4%)
Democrats - 371,190 votes (32.3%)
Independents - 290,600 (25.3%)
Other minor parties remains around 1%

Turnout is now at 63% of 2010 turnout of 1.821 million.

Sourcing: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

[Recalcuate]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Of course, but to get to R+6, the remaining samples would have to be R+0.7
To get to R+4, the remaining samples would have to be D+4.7
To get to R+1, the remaining samples would have to be D+13

The math is getting increasingly difficult.

The underlying assumption is that turnout reflects 2010. If turn out is greater, the numbers move a bit around the fringes, but the math remains difficult.

[Recalcuate]

Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2.  

I don't see the full link to the second update on the SoS site, so I can't update the Minor parties, but....

Received ballots = roughly 67% of the 2010 vote total of 1.821 million.

Assuming similar turnout:
To get to R+6, Democrats (Buck 2010) remaining sample would need to be D +0.4.
To get to R+3, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +9.4.
To get to R+1, Democrats remaining sample would need to be D +15.5.

It's the first time that Democrats need to send more bodies to the polls than Republicans to get to R+6.

As Yogi used to say, it's getting late, early.

Note: Slightly adjusted to combine Other vote with Unaffiliated vote to match Bactored's totals.

[Recalcuate]

From Magellian via the SOS.

Democrats cut the lead from R+9 to R+8. (Although still technically R+9 due to rounding).

Republicans - 556,111 (40.5%)
Democrats - 444,556 (32.4%)
Unaffiliated/Other - 371,382 (27.1%)

Total votes: 1,372,049 (77.5% of 2010 total of 1,821,028)

To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.5
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+12.7
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+20.8

We'll see what the afternoon totals bring.

According to printout, 2010 numbers ended up R+5.9.

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

[Recalcuate]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

I have no idea.  There were 20,000 El Paso County votes that weren't counted over the weekend, and I don't know if this includes those tabulations.  

The ElPaso numbers increased by roughly 30K since the 10/31 AM filing. SoS never filed a 10/31 PM update. Magellan took down the 10/31 PM numbers. So it's pretty hard to tell. My guess would be yes though.

[Recalcuate]

Well, if Dems can somehow bring it down to R+7 with the final release tomorrow afternoon (will there be one ?), then I could see some path for Udall (with the election day voters).

But Udall would have to perform really strongly with Indy voters.

SoS indicated that there will be a Monday and Tuesday release. These numbers are coming from Magellan Strategies, not the SoS. Eventually, the numbers reconcile.

[Recalcuate]

Colorado PM update

Republicans holding stable at R+8

Republicans - 590,653 (40.3%)
Democrats - 469,900 (32.1%)
Independant/Other - 403,213 (27.6%)

The total banked ballots are 1,463,766 (80.4% of 2010 total vote of 1,821,028)

Assuming turnout equals 2010
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+3.2%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.5%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+28.7%

Bumping turnout to 2.0 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+0.1%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+11.3%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+18.8%

Bumping turnout to 2.2 million
To get to R+6, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be R+1.5%
To get to R+3, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+7.4%
To get to R+1, the Democrats will need the remaining samples to be D+13.4%

The 2010 vote in Colorado finished R+5.9 (39.5% R, 33.6% D, 26.9% I)

Sourcing: http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

[Recalcuate]

Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.

QUESTION: What % of electorat was this R+5.9 back in 2010 ??

In fairness, people seem to be expecting 2-2.1 million this year which would make that 65% or so of the expected electorate. Really hard to say. In Oregon about 25% of ballots are dropped off on the day, and about 5% is same-day registration. So odds are 30% will come in tomorrow.

It's very hard to model what the Election Day balloting will be in CO. There's bound to be a lot of confusion where people are supposed to vote because the place they normally vote may be eliminated.

In any event, the Dems will have to bring out roughly as many Democrats as the Republicans do to bring the election to the 2010 R+5.9 level. Quite possible, but who knows.

[Recalcuate]

CO update:

1,504,940 votes counted, R: 40.18, D: 32.11


Next update in 3 minutes.

Sourcing? Don't see it on the SoS or Magellan websites.

[Recalcuate]

Here's the long awaited update from CO

1,586,226 votes have been counted.  R: 39.7, D: 32.2

Those figures include a sizable 36706 votes from Denver/Boulder out of the 209303 received so far today.  Among ballots counted so far today, it's R 34.8, D 31.4.

Today's pace wouldn't get Dems where they want to be. Another 500,000 ballots at this pace would yield R+6.6 at 2.086m votes.


Democrats should hope that there are additional Denver/Boulder ballots tonight, and then Dems would still need to far much better tmro

R+3 won't get the Dems to R+6. My guess is that these numbers will push back toward the R+8 when the less D-leaning counties report in the AM.

At the end of the day, it could very well be an R+7 sample when all is said and done.

[Recalcuate]

El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

Are they feeding these ballots into the optical readers (or whatever they are using) as they get them or do they have to wait until Election Day in Colorado to process?

[Recalcuate]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

Main difference is that the D numbers are down as compared to 2010. R is where it was in 2010. The Is picked up the D vote.  That's a material difference. Even if the D's have a 55-45 or 60-40 edge among Is, it's better for Gardner than 90-10 or whatever the D crossover is.

[Recalcuate]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.

Gardner. Democrats have about R+5 modeled into their polls that are tied according to 538. It's running at about R+7 at this point in time. Democrat turnout is down about 1% from 2010. Indy turnout is up. The Republican vote is about flat.

Obviously the vote today can move that a tad, but those are the goalposts.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/unskewed-polls-early-voting-edition/