Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Tender Branson]

Absentee ballots are already being sent out in NC, PA and GA:

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar

Prof. McDonald tracks the returned ones:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oCBdr7Mu_PzF454sbZDmIpYMlehTzISDLNxeJKOTGtA/edit?pli=1#gid=0

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

[Tender Branson]

Total number of absentee ballots requested so far in Iowa:

121,812 (52.1% D, 27.2% R, 20.8% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

2010 total:

349,216 (43.7% D, 38.0% R, 18.3% I)

http://www.electproject.org/2010_early_vote

[Tender Branson]

Iowa Absentee Ballots Have Nearly Doubled Since 2010

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[Tender Branson]

FL absentee ballots requested 2014: 2,250,414 (42% GOP, 39% DEM)

FL absentee ballots requested 2010: 2,172,599 (49% GOP, 36% DEM)

http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote

[Tender Branson]

The Dem. lead in IA absentee requests is now down to 9%:

44.8% DEM
35.4% GOP
19.8% IND

The final 2010 Dem-margin (which was a bad year for Dems) was 5.7%

2012 was D+11 (requested) and D+10 (returned), when Obama won Iowa.

2008 was D+18 (when Obama won IA big).

It would be good if the Dems could hold at least an 8% advantage this year.

[Tender Branson]

It's a breakdown of people who requested absentees so far this year and if they voted in 2010 or not.

[Tender Branson]

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.

The spread among returned ones is meaningless, because they lag behind the "requested" numbers.

The Dem. spread among the "requested" is now down to just 8% ...

[Tender Branson]

Eric, it's actually very good news for Florida Dems.

See here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198822.msg4327229#msg4327229

In 2010, when Scott won by 1%, Republicans had a 13% edge in requested ballots.

Now, Republicans only have a 3% edge ...

The returned ballots are lagging way behind because most people wait until the last week before election day to return the ballots in case there is something important happening in the last weeks.

ME, AR and NC are meaningless because of the small number of requested ballots so far.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile in Iowa:

Democrats take back the lead in new daily absentee requests from Republicans:



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/524196155052556288

Also, more people in IA have now requested absentees than in all of 2010, and there are still 2 weeks to go.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably the last day they lead in the absentee vote.

In NC, yeah.

But in NC there's hardly anything returned yet.

[Tender Branson]

The good news for Democrats is that, while they've returned about 50% more absentee ballots than this time in 2010, Republicans are slightly below where they were four years ago.

This is all so meaningless at this stage.

There are now just 15.000 ballots returned in NC and just 70.000 requested.

The 2010 vote was 2.7 million, which means only 0.5% of the vote is returned right now and only 2.5% requested.

In IA, a lot more is already in and requested.

Tells us more.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats now pulling away in new absentee requests in Iowa:



Overall (365.000 requests) it's now D+4 again, a few days ago it was D+2 ...

[Tender Branson]

http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/

What is this?

The Iowa absentee ballot returns so far.

[Tender Branson]

With more than 400.000 absentee ballots now requested, the Dems had another good day yesterday and stretch their lead to almost 5% again.

[Tender Branson]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

[Tender Branson]

More than 300.000 votes in CO in so far.

R: 44%
D: 32%

R+12

Roughly 1/7th of the vote is now in.

In 2010, when Bennet won by 2, the final early vote was R+6. But that was with 1.2 Mio. early votes.

Link?

The links are on top of the 1st page.

[Tender Branson]

The first day on NC in-person early voting was yesterday. This is from roguemapper at RRH:

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Not bad, but only 4.5% of the total 2010-vote.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

[Tender Branson]

IOWA update:

D, R, I all had a big jump in absentee requests over the weekend, but the Dems had the most (like in the previous days).

That means out of 460.000 requests, the Ds now have ca. a 5% advantage over the Rs.

That is important, because the 460.000 requests are already ca. 40% of the expected overall turnout.

That means Republicans will need a good election day showing to make it a tie overall.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

If the Dems continue to cut into the R-margin by 1% each day now for the next 8 days, I'm happy with that.

Let's see how this develops ...

If it's R+5 or R+6 or R+7 next Tuesday with the final update, it could still be close.

If it's R+3, Gardner likely loses.

R+7 or more should be good news for Gardner.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

Well, stupid question of mine really because CO has same-day registration - so of course you can vote on election day too ...

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

[Tender Branson]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

These laws are not awful, but in the case of the US (which does not have a central population registry) just a little bit error-prone and maybe not really that thought-through.

But at least they guarantee some 100% coverage, meaning that every citizen who wants to vote also gets a chance to vote and not just those who are registered weeks in advance.

Virtually every country in Europe uses this 100%-system, only the Anglo-countries exclude quite a few people from registration, with the US being the worst example (50 million unregistered voters, who would actually be eligible to vote).

The CO-law should of course be checked and made more fail-safe. A good way to do so would be to look at voting systems in European countries that have a history of working well, no voter fraud, 100% coverage and high turnout and copy them. The Austrian and Swedish models would not be all too bad.

[Tender Branson]

I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

Yes the Republicans will likely declare war on minority and poor voting rights if they win.

It's insane that there are people like you who are outraged at laws making voting as easy as possible.

I am all for ease of access to vote, however, I draw the line at same-day registration. There's very little controls to stop a person from crossing state lines and registering same day.

Voting is a right, but my rights are infringed if those that are not qualified to vote are not properly vetted. There's a reason most states have a cutoff prior to the election.

There could be a requirement that you can only register on election day by providing proof of in-state residency for at least 1 month before election day. The question is just how this should be enforced (once again due to the lack of a population register).