Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

...bugger.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

That is absurd.

Considering your past analysis... and how much has been thrown in your face recently, probably better that you not be soooo declarative.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wow... those NC stats look impressive.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

That leads the question... do we know from what decent polling we have, where the indy's votes are going?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

I think it's a bad idea to correlate too much from 2010 to this race. On either side. Unless the vote mix is exactly the same as last year, then it's frankly, a different sample.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At this point in the election, comparing 2014 to 2010 is ludicrous.  It's like wishing for history to repeat itself whether the outcome was good or bad.  Most of the red avatars in this thread are over the top with their predictions, it's mind baffling.  

There's only one way to know for sure... wait 24 hours.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

I assume this one.