Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Person Man]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

[Person Man]

They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Of course, but to get to R+6, the remaining samples would have to be R+0.7
To get to R+4, the remaining samples would have to be D+4.7
To get to R+1, the remaining samples would have to be D+13

The math is getting increasingly difficult.

The underlying assumption is that turnout reflects 2010. If turn out is greater, the numbers move a bit around the fringes, but the math remains difficult.

According to AP, republicans have 10% lead in early vote nationally. I don't have a link, but drudge is reporting it.

And if Colorado is at R+9, its not unreasonable to expect R+5-7.

[Person Man]

CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

So that's a 1.4% margin right now and we lost by 1.7% with KEN. BUCK. when we were +5.9.

More Republicans and even some Dems will be with Gardner.

And if this is before election day voting, the differential may fall below 5.9. If that happens, the base matters less and the center matters more.

[Person Man]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

[Person Man]

So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

Is there much of a difference?

[Person Man]

So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

If the in person votes hold at D+4 and it winds up being about 25% of the total vote it helps Udall.  If it winds up evening out and/or it only makes up 15% or so of the total vote, helps Gardner.

yeah...