Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Brittain33]

The spread in Iowa had been narrowing, but it has stabilized and even expanded a bit. Dems now up 9.8% in returned ballots.

[Brittain33]

The Dem margin in requested ballots in Iowa is now narrower than it was in 2010.

[Brittain33]

Backtored, he's a troll.

The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

[Brittain33]

How does El Paso County turn out more Democrats than all of Denver combined?

[Brittain33]

I don't have numbers from previous years to compare, but early voting numbers look good for Republicans in Kansas.

I'm no Pollyanna, but Republican turnout may be an irrelevant measure. If Orman and Davis win, it will be with large numbers of registered Republicans.

[Brittain33]

GOP leads by 119k right now. Pretty sure the GOP lead by 65k in 2010 at this point. Like I said earlier though, this obsession over the early vote margin assumes that the dems will perform as well on election day as they did in 2010. There is nothing that shows me this is the case.

Conversely, Republican focus on the early vote in CO, IA, NV is assuming that new GOTV efforts are increasing their turnout rather than, for the first time, banking regular Republican votes before Election Day rather than on that day. Republicans have historically not had a problem with turnout, unlike Dems.