Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

[Miles]

Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably the last day they lead in the absentee vote.

[Miles]

The good news for Democrats is that, while they've returned about 50% more absentee ballots than this time in 2010, Republicans are slightly below where they were four years ago.

Democrats have a 33-vote lead in returned absentee votes. This is probably the last day they lead in the absentee vote.

In NC, yeah.

But in NC there's hardly anything returned yet.

Ah, yeah. I forgot to specify NC!

[Miles]

Here's the report for the first day of LA early voting. I know its super early, but, blacks were at 31% of the ballots cast, which would be good for Landrieu if it holds.

[Miles]

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[Miles]

Almost 100K votes cast in LA. Racially, its been pretty steady since the first day, at 67% white, 31% black. The partisan split is 53D 34R 13I.

[Miles]

The first day on NC in-person early voting was yesterday. This is from roguemapper at RRH:

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[Miles]

Here's a good page to bookmark for NC.

Its breaks down the early vote by party, county, district, etc.

[Miles]

NC update: About 3/4 as many votes this year have been cast compared to this time in 2010. Keep in mind yesterday was only the second day of early voting while it was the eighth day in 2010.

Also, turnout with Independents seems to be improving the most vis-a-vis 2010:

[Miles]

In LA, more than 150K early votes were cast as of yesterday; thats not quite half of the 2012 total, but its already twice as many as 2010's total. 'Pretty steady at 66% White 32% Black.

[Miles]

With today being the last day, about 189K early votes were cast in LA.

The bad news for Landrieu: Thats only about 53% of the total early votes in 2012.

The good news for Landrieu: The racial composition still very similar to 2012. In 2010, for example, the black share dropped to 24%; it was 33% in 2012 and currently stands at 32%.

Another good sign is that women are outvoting men 55/45.

[Miles]

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[Miles]

Louisiana: With early voting finished, 236K votes were cast. Thats double the voters that were cast early in 2010, 80% 2008 and about 2/3 of 2012.

The overall race total was 64.6% white 32.8% black. The partisan split was 52.5 D 34 R 13.5 I.

[Miles]

^ Going with my LA stats:

[Miles]

NC update:

[Miles]

NC: Less than two days of early voting left and Republicans are just now reaching parity with 2010:

[Miles]

Ralston says Democrats are up to a 1,200-ballot lead in the Clark County part of NV-04.

[Miles]

^ Thanks, Griffin and BK!


From roguemapper at RRH:

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[Miles]

Ralston's take after early voting has finished in NV: Senate likely gone for Democrats, but the Assembly is looking better. Miller, Marshall could still get by on their crossover appeal.

[Miles]

^ Yesterday was the first day Democrats returned more ballots than Republicans.

Also from Cohn:

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2010 was R +6.8. Udall will need more of a cushion than that, though, as Gardner is gonna obviously run ahead of Buck with Indies.

[Miles]

With early voting finished in NC:



Democrats cast 25% more than 2010, Republicans 6% and Indies/Libertarians 45% (!).

And where each party's votes came from:

[Miles]

A bit more on the NC early voting totals.

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Further, 54% of those Democrats are black, suggesting Democrats are mobilizing their voters.

[Miles]

Map of NC early vote.



Overall, about what you'd expect.