Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

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Colorado ballot count for 11/20:

Total votes cast: 79,355

Republicans: 36,830 (46%)

Democrats: 24,648 (31%)

Unaffiliated: 17,191 (21%)

Here are the numbers for two crucial suburban Denver swing counties, both of which generally mirror statewide turnout (as you can see):

Jefferson County

Republicans: 5961 (43%)

Democrats: 4352 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 3394 (25%)


Arapahoe County

Republicans: 4877 (45%)

Democrats: 3521 (32%)

Unaffiliated: 2378 (22%)

Enjoy.

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The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

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The amount of votes in Colorado is tiny. It's way too early to make any conclusions.

This. Seems Republicans are getting desperate.

Republicans are up in the polls and up in early voting and you think it is Republicans who are getting desperate?

Not if you discount Junk polls.

In other words, every other poll except for YouGov and internals?

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El Paso County (Colorado Springs, heavily GOP, heavily populated)

Republicans: 7565 (55%)
Democrats: 2956 (22%)
Unaffiliated: 2906 (21%)

Douglas County (suburban Denver, heavily Republican)

Republicans: 5773 (60%)
Democrats: 1917 (20%)
Unaffiliated: 1818 (19%)

Denver County (urban, heavily Democratic, heavily populated)

Republicans: 465 (21%)
Democrats: 1249 (56%)
Unaffiliated: 488 (22%)

Boulder County (college town, heavily Democratic)

Republicans: 1176 (28%)
Democrats: 1856 (45%)
Unaffiliated: 1054 (25%)

Pueblo County (large Latino population, heavily Democratic--but a lot of socially conservative Democrats)

Republicans: 1851 (29%)
Democrats: 3245 (51%)
Unaffiliated: 1163 (18%)

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Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

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Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

PNA has a new study out today which suggests that this CO election might in the end resemble more a Presidential election and not a mid-term election. Which means something like 2-2.5 Mio. votes, and not 1.8 Mio. like in 2010.

Vote by mail and same day registration plays a major role, according to their study.

More than 80% of the active registered voters in CO (2.9 Mio. alltogether) say that they have received their ballot in the mail and once again more than 80% say that they will send it in. That alone would mean ca. 2 Mio. voters alltogether, not incl. those who will vote and/or register to vote on election day.

These "Presidential surge" voters indicate voting for Udall and Hick by a double-digit margin.

The study further assumes that current polls use a too strict likely voter screen, excluding most of these "surge voters".

Currently, 100.000 CO voters send in their ballot each day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/are-colorado-polls-underestimating-democratic-turnout-n232666

That is absurd.

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Colorado update for 10/24.

Total votes: 517,058 (this is about 25% of expected total statewide vote)

Republicans: 226219 (44%)
Democrats: 164083 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 126756 (25%)

Amazing.  In 2010 Republicans finished at +6%.

Didn't you say that Democrats don't really start sending in their ballots until few days before election day?  That said, this is obviously bad.

Yes, Democrats will likely narrow the margins. But there is only so much narrowing you can do as returned ballots accumulate.

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Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

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Colorado Republicans still crushing it.

Colorado turnout update for 10/27.  About a third of all expected votes have been received.

Total votes: 660,113
Republicans: 282,317 (43%)
Democrats: 213,975 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 156,893 (24%)

Here are some key county numbers:
Jefferson: 41% R, 32% D, 26% U
Arapahoe: 44% R, 32% D, 23% U
Larimer: 43% R, 30% D, 26% U

Denver and Boulder counties are now up to speed with reporting, so there are no longer large numbers of uncounted ballots out in those counties relative to the rest of the state.

If the Dems continue to cut into the R-margin by 1% each day now for the next 8 days, I'm happy with that.

Let's see how this develops ...

If it's R+5 or R+6 or R+7 next Tuesday with the final update, it could still be close.

If it's R+3, Gardner likely loses.

R+7 or more should be good news for Gardner.

Notice that the Democrats haven't taken anything from the margin.  It is unaffiliated voters who have started to turn their ballots in, but the Democrats have been stuck at 31-32 percent for more than a week.  I doubt they'll get much better than that, although the GOP's numbers will probably reach down to 38 or 39 percent as more unaffiliated voters vote.

The GOP has lost about two points over the last week.  That is only a point every few days, which would put the final turnout at R+8 or R+9--a serious disaster for Democrats.  Statistically, I think it's highly unlikely that Democrats will gain a point every day for the next week.  If Democratic GOTV suddenly goes into turbo-drive, yes, it is hypothetically possible.  But it is very unlikely.

I would guess that final turnout is somewhere between R+5 and R+8.  I still think that a 2010 turnout would allow the GOP beat both Hickenlooper and Udall, and my estimate would do that.  We'll see, though.  A majority of ballots have still yet to be returned, although so far it is amazingly good for the GOP.

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Colorado Republicans maintain strong turnout advantage. 

Colorado 10/28 update.

Total ballots: 777,820 (this is somewhere between 35 and 40 percent of this year's electorate)

Republicans: 331,723 (43%)
Democrats: 250,841 (32%)
Unaffiliated: 195,047 (25%)

Here are some key county numbers:

Adams County (northern Denver suburbs, leans Democratic)

Republicans: 34%
Democrats: 38%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Jefferson County (western Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 40%
Democrats: 32%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Arapahoe County (southern and eastern Denver suburbs, major swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 33%
Unaffiliated: 24%

Larimer County (northern Colorado, Ft. Collins, rural, key swing county)

Republicans: 43%
Democrats: 30%
Unaffiliated: 27%

Here is an analysis of yesterday's ballot return report:

http://completecolorado.com/pagetwo/2014/10/27/2014-midterm-all-mail-voting-spikes-early-turnout-compared-to-2010/

If you're keeping track, yes, today is looking even better for the GOP than yesterday.  Absolutely amazing numbers so far.

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Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the same, especially early next week.

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Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

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I was wrong. The website of the Secretary of State says that you can exchange your mail ballot for a polling ballot at vote centers, where you can also vote. So I guess you could presumably register to vote at a vote center and then go ahead and just vote.

I really hope the GOP wins and repeals these awful laws

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Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?

Probably, and yes

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Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

I live overseas now so I was able to fax in my ballot. You could also email them your ballot. Gotta love these new laws.

I will say that a lot of people don't know what the hell is going on. I know this is anecdotal but my mother (who is generally fairly politically savvy, at least compared to most people) wasn't aware that you couldn't "vote" on election day like usual.

I guess it was only a matter of time before emailing you ballot.  I'm almost surprised that they wouldn't let you Tweet it.

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Colorado 10/29 update.

Nearly 50% of the expected electorate has already voted.

Total votes: 905,500

Republicans: 379,250 (42%)
Democrats: 294,648 (33%)
Unaffiliated: 222,043 (25%)

Democrats now trail Republicans by 9.3 percentage points, which is better for them than yesterday, but still a poor showing overall.

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Colorado Republicans maintain strong lead.

Colorado update 10/30: 50 to 60 percent of expected electorate has voted

Total ballots: 1,038,023

Republicans: 431,711 (41.6%) (2010: 39.5%)
Democrats: 336,908 (32.4%) (2010: 33.6%)
Unaffiliated: 269,404 (26%) (2010: 26.9%)

My thoughts:

In 2010 Republicans had a roughly six-point advantage, and in 2012 that advantage was only two points.  I don’t expect the nine-point lead to hold, but I have to think that even an electorate similar to 2010 would be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ll point out that right now the state’s three Democratic congressional districts are actually outperforming their 2010 totals, which means that the Democratic GOTV is obviously at work.  Colorado’s four GOP congressional districts are all either performing at or below 2010 levels relative to the electorate this year as a whole.  And still Republicans are leading by nine.  In other words, I doubt that Democrats will be able to run up totals in Boulder (CD-2) and Denver (CD-1) any more than they already are. 

Right now Republicans have a larger vote advantage over Democrats than they did at the end of the 2010 election. Republicans are voting at a roughly 9% higher rate than Democrats right now, and they have been at or around that level for nearly the entire voting period.  I am beginning to wonder if this is simply what the electorate will be this year.  I expect the GOP’s nine-point lead to diminish somewhat, but Republicans are simply voting at such numbers that Democrats appear unable to catch them and bring margins down significantly.  Democrats won’t really have Election Day to rack up big totals, either, since this election is all-mail balloting.  Same-day voter registration may enable Democrats to hit college campuses with new registrations, but an extra 10,000 votes will only drop the margins about .5% relative to the whole electorate. 

By the way, I’ll just point out that I am not even certain that we’ll reach 2 million votes this year, which is what most estimates have been.  The 2010 election had 1.8 million and 2012 had 2.5 million, and I suspect we’ll get somewhere between 1.8 and 2.0 million. 

Here is a great layout of the vote so far:
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/#!colorado-2014-vote-returns/c118p

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Democrats are running out of time if these returns are to be believed.

It is data from the secretary of state's office.

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Colorado Republicans maintain strong lead.

Colorado update 10/30: 50 to 60 percent of expected electorate has voted

Total ballots: 1,038,023

Republicans: 431,711 (41.6%) (2010: 39.5%)
Democrats: 336,908 (32.4%) (2010: 33.6%)
Unaffiliated: 269,404 (26%) (2010: 26.9%)

My thoughts:

In 2010 Republicans had a roughly six-point advantage, and in 2012 that advantage was only two points.  I don’t expect the nine-point lead to hold, but I have to think that even an electorate similar to 2010 would be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ll point out that right now the state’s three Democratic congressional districts are actually outperforming their 2010 totals, which means that the Democratic GOTV is obviously at work.  Colorado’s four GOP congressional districts are all either performing at or below 2010 levels relative to the electorate this year as a whole.  And still Republicans are leading by nine.  In other words, I doubt that Democrats will be able to run up totals in Boulder (CD-2) and Denver (CD-1) any more than they already are. 

Right now Republicans have a larger vote advantage over Democrats than they did at the end of the 2010 election. Republicans are voting at a roughly 9% higher rate than Democrats right now, and they have been at or around that level for nearly the entire voting period.  I am beginning to wonder if this is simply what the electorate will be this year.  I expect the GOP’s nine-point lead to diminish somewhat, but Republicans are simply voting at such numbers that Democrats appear unable to catch them and bring margins down significantly.  Democrats won’t really have Election Day to rack up big totals, either, since this election is all-mail balloting.  Same-day voter registration may enable Democrats to hit college campuses with new registrations, but an extra 10,000 votes will only drop the margins about .5% relative to the whole electorate. 

By the way, I’ll just point out that I am not even certain that we’ll reach 2 million votes this year, which is what most estimates have been.  The 2010 election had 1.8 million and 2012 had 2.5 million, and I suspect we’ll get somewhere between 1.8 and 2.0 million. 

Here is a great layout of the vote so far:
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/#!colorado-2014-vote-returns/c118p

Just curious: Why do you believe having an electorate similar to 2010 would be such a "disaster" for Dems? Considering they won both the Gov and Senate races that year (albeit not by much)? Before we discuss how much independents are voting Republican out of frustration with Obama, lest we forget that dynamic was very much in play in 2010 too. Frankly, though Obama's hardly popular now, I don't believe it's equal to, let alone exceeds, the national intensity of 2010.

This'll be a good GOP year nationally, and probably in CO, but I don't see why Democrats would be doomed as long as they at least get close to 2010 turnout.

Because Cory Gardner is a great candidate and the GOP basically had no candidate running against Hick. Otherwise the GOP had a wonderful year in Colorado. With strength at the top of this year's ticket, why wouldn't the GOP be able to do just as well with a similar electorate? Gardner and Beauprez would be incumbents today if they had run four years ago.

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Question for CO-posters:

When you receive your mail ballot, does the envelope or the info card inside show the addresses of the "vote centers" in the county the recipient is living in ?

Or do people who want to vote on election day (rather than mailing it in earlier) have to look up the centers online ?

In Austria, when I receive my election info card, the address of the voting center is printed on it.

Just curious ...

It lists the drop-off locations for the county. I honestly doubt that people even realize that you can trade in your ballot and vote in-person. I expect only a small sliver if the electorate to do that, although you'll get quite a few who wait until Tuesday to drop their ballot off.

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What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

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What is going on?

Colorado 10/30 update #2

Here are some even newer numbers for today.  It kind of clashes with the earlier data that I posted, but this is apparently something that Byron York obtained from the secretary of state’s office.  We'll get something a little more official from Gessler's office at around 9:00 AM MTN.

Republicans: 443,240
Democrats: 337,897
Unaffiliated: 259,947

I don’t know how that breaks down statistically, but that is an extra 10,000 votes for the GOP over the Democrats from earlier today.  Colorado Peak Politics is saying that the GOP now has a more than 10-point lead again over the Democrats.

Absolutely amazing.

Have a look here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/ACE/VoterTurnout/atlas.html?indicator=i1&indicator2=i4

The math has turnout as follows:

Republicans: 443,240 (41.5%)
Democrats:  337,807 (32.4%)
Independent: 259.947 (24.9%)

Other is about 1.1%

That's just over 1,000,000 votes.
There were just over 1,770,000 votes cast in 2010. (60% of 2010 numbers).

Assuming similar turnout to 2010, in order to get to R+6 (the infamous Buck election), the remaining ballots have to be R +1.4. To get to R+4, it has to be D+3.
 
Good luck with that.

I'll add that the best day that Democrats have had over the last two weeks was R+2-3 just the other day. Otherwise it has generally held at R+9 or thereabouts. Tomorrow is the last day to mail back ballots--otherwise they have to be dropbped off in-person. In other words, GOTV is getting harder, and not easier at this point.

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They can still get to where they were in 2010.

Probably not at this point.b  Disastrous for Democrats

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Republican lead grows in Colorado: amazing

Colorado update #2, 10/31

Total votes: 1,217,284 (approximately two-thirds of the electorate has already voted)

Republicans: 502,961 (41.3%)
Democrats: 391,509 (32.1%)
Unaffiliated: 323,228 (26.6%)

Total GOP lead over Dems: 111,452 (9.2%)

The 2010 electorate was R+5.9 and 2012 was around R+2. 

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Whoah, did you know in Alaska you can cast an early vote via fax or the internet

That's understandable. Isn't half of that state basically a giant glacier in November?