Senate Election Simulator

[Fuzzybigfoot]

From 270 to win:

http://www.270towin.com/2014-senate-election-simulation/run-simulation.php

Really cool.  It even predicts who Orman will caucus with if he wins in Kansas.

[CatoMinor]

The prediction for who he would caucus with is simple.

R 50 - (D 47+ I 2) = 51R

(D 48 + I 2) - R 49 = 51D

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The prediction for who he would caucus with is simple.

R 50 - (D 47+ I 2) = 51R

(D 48 + I 2) - R 49 = 51D

Oh right, but still. 

[JRP1994]

I took 10 spins using the 538 probabilities..........

1: R+5 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, and AK; Orman wins and caucuses D)
2: R+8 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, and CO)
3: R+6 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, and AK; Orman wins and caucuses R)
4: R+4 (picks up MT, WV, SD, LA, CO, and NC; loses GA; Orman wins and caucuses D)
5: R+6 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR, AK, NC)
6: R+7 (picks up MT, WV, SD, LA, AK, IA, NH, NJ; loses TN)
7: R+2 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR; loses GA, MS)
8: R+1 (picks up MT, WV, LA, IA, MI; loses SD, SC-reg, MS; Orman wins and caucuses D)
9: R+4 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AK, CO; loses GA)
10: R+5 (picks up MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, and AK; Orman wins and caucuses D)

AVG Result: R+4.8