WaPo: Attacks on Ernst change dynamics of Iowa Senate race

[Never]

Article

Yesterday, Phillip Tucker and Dan Balz did a write-up of Iowa's Senate race meant to be reflective of recent events in the election. Among some of the main points of the article are that because of attacks from Democrats on her views of the issues, Ernst is attempting to moderate her image by airing an ad indicating "she cares about protecting Social Security, good schools, good-paying jobs and affordable health care," that Braley has an advantage when the ideology of the candidates is at the forefront, and that this race could prove crucial in determining which party wins a Senate majority after this midterm.

I found the following nugget of the article quite interesting:

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I suspect that this race could very well be decided by less than a point, but I'm still wondering what everyone here has to say about that particular assessment of this race.

[eric82oslo]

The fact that we don't have an incumbent, probably makes it much closer than it usually would have been. It's not impossible that Iowa could go Republican, yet Louisiana or Arkansas at the same time goes Democratic. Right now, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska are all rated as toss up by 538.

[Bacon King]

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They'd probably both be saying this even if their internals were showing a consistent five point lead in either direction. If the race is publicly seen as a tossup, then both sides have every incentive to hype this up. It motivates turnout, boosts donations, invites more attention from their party committees, etc.