Two political scientists/researchers have released a document called
"The Dynamics of State Policy Liberalism, 1936–2012, where they have given a rating to each state's legislature every single year during this period. Most states have been remarkable consistant, while a few others have experienced pretty wild swings over the years! The states with the most wild ideological swings over the years? Probably Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, Utah and Idaho. Throw in Oklahoma, Maine, Alabama and South Dakota as well for good measure. The most stable state? Perhaps Wisconsin. Tennessee and North Carolina come close as well.
On a scale from 3.5 (most liberal) to -3.5 (most conservative), in 2012:
New York: 2.3 (always been liberal)
California: 2.1 (always been liberal)
New Jersey: 2.1 (always been liberal)
Massachusetts: 2.0 (always been liberal)
Connecticut: 1.9 (always been liberal)
Hawaii: 1.8 (always been liberal)
Rhode Island: 1.7 (always been liberal)
Washington: 1.6 (always been liberal)
Vermont: 1.6
Maryland: 1.6
Maine: 1.4
Oregon: 1.3 (always been liberal)
Wisconsin: 1.0 (always been liberal)
New Mexico: 1.0
New Hampshire: 0.8
Delaware: 0.8
Minnesota: 0.6 (always been liberal)
Iowa: 0.6
Illinois: 0.5 (always been liberal)
Montana: 0.4
Michigan: 0.3 (always been liberal)
Pennsylvania: 0.3 (always been liberal)
Alaska: 0.3 (always been liberal)
Colorado: 0.2
Nevada: 0.0
Ohio: 0.0
Nebraska: -0.3
West Virginia: -0.4
Arizona: -0.5
Indiana: -0.6
Florida: -0.7
North Dakota: -0.7
Kansas: -0.9
Kentucky: -0.9
Virginia: -0.9 (always been conservative)
North Carolina: -0.9 (always been conservative)
Texas: -0.9 (always been conservative)
Missouri: -0.9 (always been conservative)
Wyoming: -1.0 (always been conservative)
Utah: -1.2
South Dakota: -1.3 (always been conservative)
Tennessee: -1.3 (always been conservative)
Oklahoma: -1.4
Louisiana: -1.4 (always been conservative)
South Carolina: -1.6 (always been conservative)
Idaho: -1.7
Arkansas: -1.7 (always been conservative)
Georgia: -2.0 (always been conservative)
Alabama: -2.3 (always been conservative)
Mississippi: -2.3 (always been conservative)
So there are currently 24 liberal state legislatures, 24 conservative ones and two neither/moderate/bipartisan. If the composition of state legislatures could predict presidential elections, Ohio and Nevada would in fact, right now, be the ultimate battleground swing states.
Which isn't way too far away from reality actually...
Notice that 15 state legislatures have always been predominantly liberal (that is since 1936), 13 have always tilted at least somewhat conservative, while the remaining 22 states have had a more bipartisan (or at least moderate) edge over the years.
If Georgia would truely turn into a battleground in 2016, it would surely come as a very unpleasant shock for a majority in the extremely conservative Georgia legislature! Only Mississippi and Alabama are currently exposing a more conservative tilt in their state capitols.
Montana and Alaska are the only Obama losing states which have a more liberal than conservative legislature as of today. Perhaps a more "rural" Democratic presidential candidate would be able to win these two states? Perhaps someone like Brian Schweitzer or Mark Begich.
The only Obama states to exhibit a conservative corpse of state politicians are Florida and Virginia (plus Indiana & North Carolina if anyone cares to include those).
All charts from 1936-2012 here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/17/why-california-is-so-liberal-and-alabama-is-so-conservative/Edit: Maybe this should have been placed in the Stateswide Elections section.
