CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8

[Person Man]

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

[Person Man]

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

I'll go with that.

[Person Man]

Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.

Yeah. He won by 2, right?

[Person Man]

Maybe this year will have R+7 but I don't know how demographic trends could support it. Maybe fracking is causing southern oilmen to move to Colorado?

In 2010 and 2012, it was D+5. In 2008, it was R+1.

[Person Man]

Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday: here's what they said on turnout.

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Though that is what internals have compiled, but maybe they are wrong, maybe they are right.

[Person Man]

Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.

Like the time Kerry was ahead by 10 and looked good in Missouri,  Ohio and Florida?