Crystal Ball: 5 reasons Senate control may not be decided on election day.
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  Crystal Ball: 5 reasons Senate control may not be decided on election day.
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Author Topic: Crystal Ball: 5 reasons Senate control may not be decided on election day.  (Read 710 times)
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« on: September 18, 2014, 07:38:22 AM »

In today's article from Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik says there are five reasons why the control of the Senate might not be decided on election day.

First, a recount:

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^ This possibility slipped my mind, but it seems all too likely considering how close many of the Senate races will probably end up.

Second, a Louisiana runoff:

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^ I expected to see this possibility mentioned from the outset; it would be interesting to have to wait until December 6 to find out which party controls the Senate.

Third, Greg Orman's decision regarding which party to caucus with if he wins:

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^ If Orman is genuinely undecided, things could get interesting. I wouldn't be surprised to see him push for concessions from both parties if the Senate were 50R-49D. Which party would cave in first though and get rid of their current caucus leader?

Fourth, Georgia's Senate race could end up heading to a runoff:

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^ This was another likely scenario that seems to have been discussed to a degree on this forum.

Finally, the fifth reason that why might not know which party controls the Senate is because of a switch in the party identification of a current senator or multiple senators:

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^ Out of the five possibilities listed in the CrystalBall article, this one seemed least likely to me. Even if a current senator switched parties for some reason, I would expect that it would happen after a party has already clearly taken control of the Senate.
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