Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[YL]

Eilean Siar: Yes 9195 No 10544

My very very limited knowledge of Gaelic was enough to know that it was 9000 and something and 10000 and something

[ilikeverin]

Eilean Siar: Yes 9195 No 10544

Hahahahaha, omg.  Yes fail!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It's over.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Wee Frees swung it. Which is ironic as they're the people who padlock the swings on Sundays.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Overall:

No: 57.85
Yes: 42.15

[H. Ross Peron]

Rule Britannia!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

No has won. But the discussion of constitutional reforms on BBC is very interesting. Scotland is going to win, regardless of the results.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rule Britannica!

[Hash]

Guys, lay off the trolling and horsecrap. This board isn't Forum Community.

[justfollowingtheelections]

What are the chances of a 32/32 for "No"?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I was pleased to see Orkney Islands, one of my ancestral regions, vote No by about 2-1.

No has won. But the discussion of constitutional reforms on BBC is very interesting. Scotland is going to win, regardless of the results.

Huh?  Only 4 councils have reported.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I was pleased to see Orkney Islands, one of my ancestral regions, vote No by about 2-1.

Stop.

[njwes]

Sure, I understand that. But if the No vote is rather decisive, as in +5% or so, I don't really see the need to make reforms as extensive as they're making it sound. Perhaps they're just dramatizing in their tweets and statements and press releases. But it just seems like the Conservatives and the No camp in general have betrayed a shocking lack of confidence or belief in the United Kingdom as it is. Their last-minute desperation offer of "devo-max" to Scotland was truly pathetic, and it's not so clear to me that it helped their cause much at all.

That's a prescient, and more subtle, question than I at first apprehended.  My parents spent some time in Scotland and brought back lots of souvenirs when I was young, but I've never been there myself.  I don't have a good feel for how things work there.

I will say that on my last trip to Puerto Rico I arrived just after a referendum on that island's status.  They have those about once every seven years, by the way, and the results are always exactly the same.  About 55% vote for the status quo, to remain a Commonwealth of the United States, and about 40% vote for statehood, and about 5% vote for complete independence, a divorce from the United States, a la South Carolina 1861.  Not sure why, well, actually I have a pretty good idea about it but that's far beyond the scope of this thread, anyway the results are always thus.  Now, suppose they one day decided to vote 51+% in favor of something other than status quo, such as either statehood or independence.  Do you think that the US government would immediately (or ever) act upon its wishes?  I doubt it.  Still, I get the impression that the London government operates under a different set of rules.  I expect that it would be expected to unchain Scotland should it decide in a binding referendum to divorce itself form the UK.  For that reason, and for the reason that unlike PR, the Scots opinion does seem to be monotonically changing (in favor of nationalism), the UK recognizes that it would do well to satisfy some of its demands.

As for the theory that a diminished UK would necessarily result in a diminished US on the world stage, I'm not sure I buy into that, nor do I think that an severed Scotland necessarily amounts to a diminished British presence in the UN in the first place, so I'm not a kneejerk NO supporter (like most Americans).  On the other hand, I'm not a kneejerk YES supporter either.  I'm just along for the ride.  That said, I do enjoy throwing monkey wrenches in the clockworks at every opportunity, so I must admit that I'm just a tiny bit disappointed that it seems to be decided so decisively at this early hour.

Thanks for this long reply. Personally I don't care what the effects of the referendum result would be on the US-UK relationship; I don't think a Yes would have done much of anything to diminish it, and certainly I don't think it would diminish the US presence on the world stage--though tbh I wish something would

The PR comparison is interesting. I agree that if PR voted for a change in the status quo the federal government could easily ignore the vote and it wouldn't be a huge issue, especially if it was just 51% or so. Scotland's situation is different of course because (1) while there's an imbalance in power between Scotland and rUK, it's not as extreme as PR and the US and (2) unlike PR which was never well integrated into the political system (no voting powers in Congress, many Americans don't even realize it's a US possession, etc) Scotland is, and their wishes would therefore be far harder to ignore. I agree that London probably needs to respect the result of the referendum, and give Scotland independence even if it's only a 50%+1 result, but it seems to me that that's in part because the Westminster elite have put themselves in that position, legitimizing a 50%+1 result. And to some extent I think they've also delegitimized the very idea of a strong United Kingdom. Certainly they've shown themselves unwilling to defend the idea of a strong Britain.

Seeing the Western Isles result, again, I wonder if the leaders now think they shot themselves in the foot with their promises in the last couple week. Among other things, it means that Alex Salmond can claim a victory of some sort, which is embarrassing. Their promise of more devolution may turn out to be extremely short-sighted. I think it might unleash centrifugal forces that they don't foresee, increasing nationalism in all the constituent nations of the UK, and lead (relatively) rapidly to a shattered Union.

[angus]

profanity

I thank you for quoting me, because for some mysterious reason I got "error occurred" when I tried to quote my own thread.

That's the whole fucking point, in case no one actually gets it, by the way.  Something like 45+% of these people don't like the Hashemites of the world, and certainly would at least like to have their opinions registered in the ether, whether or not they win.

Also, much of the world is watching this election.  Sure, it was likely that the NO vote would win, and I think most of us posted as much earlier, but the mere possibility of a peaceful secession was very interesting to many.  The whole thread was going swimmingly before Hashemite's post.  Let's be honest about that, at least.  (I add that only to answer your implied question.  Hope I haven't misinterpreted.)

[eric82oslo]

So far, districts representing 2.3% have reported. 97.7% still to come.

[politicus]

What are the chances of a 32/32 for "No"?

Almost nil imo, a couple of the nationalist strongholds in the east - Moray, Dundee, Angus - are bound to vote yes, even if its narrowly.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here's some good background music for all you fellow No supporters here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST353mDWL3Q

On another note, it's looking like, on current trends, the United Kingdom will remain united! Not calling it quite yet though.

[Hash]

Since for some reason a few are jumping at me for cracking down on 'trolling', I wish to clarify that by 'trolling' I meant pretty blatant trolling or useless contributions, in the form of silly posters or that kind of stuff. I obviously have no problems with people expressing opinions, even in the form of 'extreme hyperbole' or whatever (it's that kind of evening).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Actually, the U.S. would probably honor PR's vote if they voted for statehood (in a manner that did so straightforwardly, as opposed to the 2012 referendum); I doubt PR will ever vote for independence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dundee will certainly vote yes. Wins are possible for yes in all sorts of places (because of the weird nature of the campaign) but they key thing is to rack up raw numbers. A narrow win is no good.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not calling it until, at the earliest, whenever we get the first region with a population of greater than 100,000. The vote difference is small enough that the large population centers can easily swing it back if they vote the right away.

[jaichind]

I want to stay up just to see a larger district report results.  I might not be able to make it given the pace we are going.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whoever made that list of reporting time estimates clearly knows NOTHING about U.K. Reporting.

[njwes]

Actually, the U.S. would probably honor PR's vote if they voted for statehood (in a manner that did so straightforwardly, as opposed to the 2012 referendum); I doubt PR will ever vote for independence.

Well I think they would honor it if the question was clear and the consensus was fairly decisive. I'm less sure what would happen in a vote that was, say, 48-47-5 in favor of statehood. At the very least I think the timeline for admission as a state would be quite drawn out. Undoubtably many politicians would feel reticent about bringing in a state that would be by far the poorest in the Union.

[eric82oslo]

Inverclyde:

1.5% of the electorate

Total: 44,601

Yes: 27,243 (49.9%)
No: 27,329 (50.1%)

Turnout: 87.4%

Now that's close!