Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[politicus]

That's assuming status quo on several areas with a high level of uncertainty. Outside factors and internal identity shifts could - and likely will - change this picture quite a bit. If the Euro-zone stabilizes, the currency question, which was very important this time, will be out of the way and if Britain leaves the EU independence (=renewed membership) will become more attractive.

There has been significant growth in non-oil sectors (tourism, fish farming and the luxury end of the food sector etc.) and if SNP use the oil profits wisely to support reindustrialization that will become a factor too. While SNP are populists they are not idiots and they know they will need to produce sustainable growth in order to win.

Furthermore if more people starts identifying as Scottish rather than British this will make a Yes more likely regardless of the economy, so the unionist side still needs to convince young Scots of the attraction of being British.

In short: Its unlikely that reduced oil wealth in itself will stop the momentum of the independence movement. "Its Scotlands oil" was an important element in renewing Scottish nationalism, but the development it help set in motion isn't going to stop just because the oil dries up. Other factors will be more important.

[njwes]

Interesting article: apparently the parties supporting the Yes vote have seen a huge surge in membership over the past 10 days.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29311147

This too:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29399858

[ChrisDR68]

Population breakdown of the UK:

England.................. 53,000,000
Scotland.................   5,300,000
Wales.....................   3,100,000
Northern Ireland....   1,800,000
----------------------------------------
Total...................  63,200,000

Scotland therefore represents 8.4% of the current UK population.

If they have another vote in 20 years and vote for independence is it really that big of a deal for the rest of the UK?