Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[Tender Branson]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No.

[politicus]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No exit polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something to be aware of: beware early rumours! Generally they are based on literally nothing; counting does not begin the moment that the polls close. There are all kinds of logistical and procedural arrangements that have to be followed, and these can take a while. Even when counting has actually started in a given local authority, be at least a little careful of any rumours from the counts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And obviously any figures posted online before the polls close are complete fiction. Electoral procedure here makes that kind of estimate completely impossible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm actually kinda glad I will be sleeping when all this mess unfolds. At least I won't have any false hopes, and will know the definitive results right at the beginning. It's not fun, but at least it's not stressful...

[bore]

This is exciting. It must be strange for our Scottish members that half the forum is more emotionally invested in the outcome than they are, though.

How many Forum posters are actually from Scotland ?

afleitch, bore, ... ?

Yeah, me and afleitch are the only Scots on the forum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about oldiesfreak?

[Lurker]

Perhaps you should drop your preconceived notions about what "a modern European country" entails. Election results in Ireland always tale until the next day to be declared. England similarly often sees long delays before results are given. Not everywhere is exactly like the United States, backtored.

It does seem damn slow to me too. In elections in Scandinavia they have often counted 90% or so in a couple of hours. I do feel that Scotland is unusually slow compared to most Western European countries as well.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Perhaps you should drop your preconceived notions about what "a modern European country" entails. Election results in Ireland always tale until the next day to be declared. England similarly often sees long delays before results are given. Not everywhere is exactly like the United States, backtored.

It does seem damn slow to me too. In elections in Scandinavia they have often counted 90% or so in a couple of hours. I do feel that Scotland is unusually slow compared to most Western European countries as well.

You should see an Irish count - Voting can take place on Friday and final results won't be fully counted until Sunday (although part of the reason is that we don't do night counting).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One issue is the centralisation of the counting process. Votes aren't counted by polling district, but at the relevant local administration centre. On the other hand, once results are declared they are all the results and are final.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In that case I hope we spend hours and hours waiting for one lost boat with twenty votes from an obscure Hebrides island

[Nichlemn]

I'm actually kinda glad I will be sleeping when all this mess unfolds. At least I won't have any false hopes, and will know the definitive results right at the beginning. It's not fun, but at least it's not stressful...

If I want to see results in "real time", I try to find the Atlas results thread and skim through it. (That's why I'm here now, thought there might be some results by now, oh well). Although in a high-profile vote like this, it's going to be a lot harder to avoid spoilers.

[GAworth]

Is 10pm the usual time that polls close in the UK?

[politicus]

Is 10pm the usual time that polls close in the UK?

Yup.

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

[politicus]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No exit polls.

A bit of background as to why that is and why its bad.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Wasn't the assumption that it almost certainly would do so?

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Wasn't the assumption that it almost certainly would do so?

It's never been known and nor has it became any clearer in the last few weeks of the campaign (as these things usually do). If turnout is high, and is relatively high regardless of where you are, even with traditionally higher turnouts in certain parts of the country, the difference could be less than usual, so not only would your national turnout be wrong, but your subnational turnout levels could be askew too.

[YL]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Have they?  I can't see anything of the sort on https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI (I can find other people on Twitter claiming that they have said this, but no links to the actual statement or anything, which makes me suspicious).

[Lurker]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No exit polls.

A bit of background as to why that is and why its bad.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

Are there any particular reasons why they won't have exit polls (IIRC they do use them for British General Elections).?

[politicus]

I'll have a special drink when the angus council declares.  Aye or nae, let's drink on it either way.  

If Angus says nae its going to be a No landslide.

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Have they?  I can't see anything of the sort on https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI (I can find other people on Twitter claiming that they have said this, but no links to the actual statement or anything, which makes me suspicious).

I'm not on twitter so I can't say. If it's bad second hand info then apologies.

[Peeperkorn]

I found this kind of instructive:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

telegraph-co-uk

[njwes]

Praying that the BBC has some really good election maps I can play around with in the hours between declarations.

[angus]

This is exciting. It must be strange for our Scottish members that half the forum is more emotionally invested in the outcome than they are, though.

Usually secessions are bloody affairs.  There have been very few peaceful secessions in history.  KY from VA in 1792 and WV from VA in 1863 are the only two I know of in US history.  In the world, there are probably fewer than a dozen extant nations that have split off peacefully.  Of course, Scotish secession doesn't seem likely at this point, but the possibility alone of this relatively rare thing makes it interesting to the world.  

My guess is that Basques and maybe Catalonians are watching this with special interest.