Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At least Yes won the important vote.

[eric82oslo]

Edinburgh voted 39-61.

[justfollowingtheelections]

EDINBURGH SAYS NO

YES - 123,927

NO - 194,638


Can someone btw explain to me why Dundee was so in favor of "Yes"?  Is there a reason they're more nationalist?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Edinburgh/Aberdeenshire in, the margin is 55.40-44.60.

Still out: Fife, Highland, Moray

[politicus]

Edinburgh voted 39-61.

Told ya it would be 60%+

[njwes]

I wonder what percent of the voters were actively swayed by promises of devo-max.

And would his have been, in a way, a stronger victory for the No side if the result had been something like 51-49 but with no promise of devo-max?

[MalaspinaGold]

Fife:
Yes: 114148
No: 139788

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Fife in, the margin narrows very marginally to 55.38-44.62

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No clears 50% of all votes, including the 2 outstanding councils.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No won Moray


Overall Margin is now 55.42-44.58, with only Highland still out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The military is extremely important to the economy of Moray, note.

[politicus]

Moray even lower Yes vote (42,4%) than Angus (43,7%). Its interesting that those two are that low.

Only 4 Yes areas out of 32. (Parts of) Greater Glasgow + Dundee.

Orkney best No, Dundee best Yes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moray even lower Yes vote (42,4%) than Angus (43,7%). Its interesting that those two are that low.

Only 4 Yes areas out of 32. (Parts of) Greater Glasgow + Dundee.

Orkney best Yes, Dundee best No.

Orkney was best No...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I wonder what percent of the voters were actively swayed by promises of devo-max.

And would his have been, in a way, a stronger victory for the No side if the result had been something like 51-49 but with no promise of devo-max?

Promising Devo Max is one thing, but will it be delivered?

[njwes]

I wonder what percent of the voters were actively swayed by promises of devo-max.

And would his have been, in a way, a stronger victory for the No side if the result had been something like 51-49 but with no promise of devo-max?

Promising Devo Max is one thing, but will it be delivered?

Maybe not full devo-max (however you define it) but they're going to have to deliver something substantial. They made the promise, wisely or no. And already the SNP and Yes vote talking heads are regurgitating talking points left and right about how this result is "a mandate for change", "a call for no more politics as usual", "a No vote doesn't mean no change" etc etc etc. They lost rather decisively, and yet to hear them talk, they sorta won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Moray even lower Yes vote (42,4%) than Angus (43,7%). Its interesting that those two are that low.

In Moray at least there was presumably an element of voting-with-my-wallet (see above). And I guess in Angus you still have Tories and they were 102% no as a group.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I'm guessing the Highland result isn't going to be announced anytime soon...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any idea what's keeping Highland from reporting?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Firstly, why do you think it has that name? Second, they had a problem with getting some of the boxes to the counting centre: there was a crash on the road they were being brought on, delaying things by a couple of hours.

[njwes]

Firstly, why do you think it has that name? Second, they had a problem with getting some of the boxes to the counting centre: there was a crash on the road they were being brought on, delaying things by a couple of hours.

The Guardian website lists it as "Highland," in fairness.

[bore]

Firstly, why do you think it has that name? Second, they had a problem with getting some of the boxes to the counting centre: there was a crash on the road they were being brought on, delaying things by a couple of hours.

The Guardian website lists it as "Highland," in fairness.

I think the point is that it's hardly surprising that it's difficult and takes a long time to transport ballots around an area called highlands, due to, you know, the hills.

[politicus]

Argyll and  Blute are not especially logistic friendly either.

It is, however, significantly smaller.

[Beezer]

Maybe not full devo-max (however you define it) but they're going to have to deliver something substantial. They made the promise, wisely or no. And already the SNP and Yes vote talking heads are regurgitating talking points left and right about how this result is "a mandate for change", "a call for no more politics as usual", "a No vote doesn't mean no change" etc etc etc. They lost rather decisively, and yet to hear them talk, they sorta won.

Well, a month ago Salmond would have sold his grandma for 45% of the vote. Of course in light of the recent polls it looks like a decisive "no" vote.

[politicus]

For what its worth the unofficial leaks from those counting says its 53-47 No. Just in case anybody wants to go to bed...

[pendragon]

Be wary of making crude demographic assumptions, btw. There were some very working class areas where Yes badly underperformed expectations (i.e. it wasn't just the poor results in rural Scotland). Historically Presbyterian working class areas perhaps? Admittedly you'd need to look at detailed figures that don't exist to be sure. Still, I wonder whether some of the patterns in general were heavily cultural?

Ramble ramble, five thirty am.

If I were a Karl Rove type advising the Scottish Tories right now, I would advise them to 1. disaffiliate themselves from the national party, 2. change their name back to "Scottish Unionist Party" and make their new emblem a crown superimposed upon a union flag (or some sort of obviously-unionist symbol if the electoral commission wouldn't allow that), 3. do whatever it takes to get a well-known Labour figure to defect to the party, and immediately make him/her the party leader. Have one of your upper-class twit friends offer them a seven-figure job if necessary.

New message: We are against endless referenda. We are the only ones willing to deal with crime. Rah-rah The Union. Why isn't Labour council X flying Our Flag? (All the attacks in this vein should be on Labour; goal is to associate them with being unpatriotic and bait them into echoing nationalist rhetoric).

Rah-rah Our Soldiers. Require banks to give an equal bonus to our soldiers for each bonus they give to their bankers. Boo-hiss multinationals with their poisonous GMOs and not paying any taxes and putting Granny's corner store out of business. Tesco out of Scotland, McDonalds out of Scotland, Starbucks out of Scotland. (Word-salad populism works, especially if you can bait the other parties into defending bankers against soldiers and Tesco against Granny's corner store).

We demand a written constitution: ban privatizing or cutting the NHS, ban cutting benefits to soldiers, no privatizing pensions, only allow a progressive income tax, independence and monarchy abolition only via referenda that can be held once every 30 years; 2/3rds must vote yes on at least 50% turnout. Why do the other parties want to leave our welfare state vulnerable and subject us to endless referenda? (It's not like there's a chance in hell that the Scottish NHS or pensions are going to be privatized or they'll have a flat income tax, so it's a no-risk way of countering negative perceptions and appearing to shift dramatically to the left without much in the way of real policy concessions).

Stay on-message: For gay marriage, pro-choice, take as vague a position as possible on immigration and the EU. A little right-wing populism goes a long way, and those social issues are ones where it's very easy to make a gaffe that puts oneself in a very deep hole very fast.

If possible, never join government. Next time there's a recession, vote against any and all austerity measures.

...

Of course, the Scottish Tory leadership would never go for my suggestions, and possibly not the membership either. And it might be that it would just alienate the current Tory voters without attracting enough new ones to make up for it. But I think something like I'm saying is worth a shot; it's how they should have been positioning the party a long time ago. Unionism is an ideology that has traction amongst a good portion of the public there, but economic liberalism does not.