Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Forgive my utter ignorance, but wasn't Scotland (at least in the centuries that followed reformation) predominately Calvinist?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Forgive my utter ignorance, but wasn't Scotland (at least in the centuries that followed reformation) predominately Calvinist?

Irish migrants in the Industrial Revolution Antonio. Lots of them.

[afleitch]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

[politicus]

Which means we also know more or less exactly who the twenty to thirty percent of Labour supporters (as highlighted by basically every poll) who voted Yes are. It makes a degree of logical sense; less attachment to the British state and - in a more functional sense - to the rest of the UK.

_{(Btw, have you ever considered a variant of 'this thing of ours' a generic jokey semi-euphemism for it?)}

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?

The areas that voted strongly in favour of independence were more than likely areas with high Catholic populations. What's important to note that these areas in 2011 also (and this was most clearly seen within Glasgow itself at that time) remained Labour 'boltholes' in an otherwise sea of yellow that year. For that reason, with a bit of intuition, it seemed to me that in west central Scotland those who voted Labour in 2011 may have been more inclined to vote Yes in 2014. What is also striking, excluding E.Duns and E.Ren, the borders, and the islands which have their own special way of thinking is that the parts of the country where the SNP was strong didn't back Yes, or indeed backed No much more heavily.

These areas of the country are richer, have faster growing populations, low Catholic populations and high areas of 'No Religion' in the census amongst the young and high levels of Presbyterianism amongst the old. One would have expected the opposite result across the country. It would be helpful, though it is impossible to see, what the results by council would have been with the over 65's stripped back.

What is all the more curious is that Catholics in 1979 were less inclined to back the Assembly on the basis that there was a not too illegitimate fear that Scotland would become another Ulster. At that time there was a feeling that unionism (not that Catholics ever backed political Unionism in the Scottish sense) was a stalwart against state Presbyterianism.

I don't think there was anything remotely anti-Catholic about the vote. Given that it is likely that Yes led amongst almost all age groups until those in their 60's if anything the map doesn't tell us as much as it ought to. There's a bit of a 'grey mist' that makes meaningful interpretation difficult.

Well, I though a resurface of anti-Catholicism at this point sounded weird, but then Al made the reference to the Orange Order march.

This reverse pattern with Labour/Irish/Catholic areas voting Yes and SNP/"Old Scottish" Presbyterian/Agnostic areas voting No is really strange, even if it correlates with a socio-economic geographical and/or demograhic divide. Could SNP have avoided it with a different type of campaign?

The point about most under 60 voters being Yes is of course important.

What do you think of the turnout at 82,1% of all voters/84,6 of registered?  Worse than you expected or fine? Had Yes won with a 90%+ turnout IYO?

[bullmoose88]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

You're staying safe, assuming its perilous which...possibly not, I hope?

[afleitch]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

You're staying safe, assuming its perilous which...possibly not, I hope?

The main square saw the police 'kettling' the loyalists but it's spilled out on to the other streets because more people have turned up. They have been blocked off now.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152645465120901&set=vb.720735900&type=2&theater

[bullmoose88]

My apologies if it is too soon/body's not even cold yet (insert similar expression here)...

...how soon before we get indyref 2 here?  I know I asked this question last night and IIRC (too lazy to go back) someone mentioned that Salmond said this is a once in a generation chance.

I disagree.  

I mean surely some of the momentum for independence may have been slowed, for now...in the short term....but more than 4 in 10 Scots voted to toss the Union aside last night.  Can the three (err maybe 2.5) major westminster unionist parties really heal the Union?  

(In the interests of disclosure, I'm obviously an American who cares too much about the political affairs of other nations.  On top of it, I have some sort of unexplainable affinity for the Union.  I don't know if its just in America's best interest to keep the UK intact, or if its just because I detest secession generally [exceptions apply], but certainly it sounds hypocritical to be an American and not support countries leaving Britain's...err...yeah...fold.  I know.  Mea Culpa.  Also, as an aside I have doubts about how smart it would have been for relatively small country to either use the pound or the euro at present.  If I were in such a country and was a policy maker, [thank the gods I am not] I'd probably would rather have my own currency and keep control of monetary policy.)

Seeing a British federal system where the four component countries have similar internal powers would be neat (well as neat as it could be for someone in my seat thousands of miles away--again, sorry).  But, and please correct me if I'm wrong, I have the sneaking suspicion that the nationalist growth outpaces that of the unionists in Northern Ireland...how soon before a nationalist stormont demands a referendum?  And how likely would they win at that point?  

And if they do win, what's to stop Scotland from taking another bite at the apple (to borrow a favorite lawyer phrase...sorry again...people hate lawyers I know)?  

How does Westminster keep everyone happy? Or happy enough?

Now I await the inevitable smack down of facts from Al and/or Andrew.  Surely it will be deserved.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but then Al made the reference to the Orange Order march.

The point being more that the Orange Order is reflective (if more distantly than was once the case) of the culture of certain working class protestant areas in Scotland (will people who wave union flags at football matches vote for independence even if they have sometimes maybe voted SNP? It seems that the answer is no), than of an anti-catholic element in the vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know what will happen and neither does anyone else, though I'll note that there are obvious political reasons for the SNP to insist (for now) that this was a once-in-a-generation vote.

My personal view is that few political phenomenons exemplify bad faith more than neverendums, and so I hope that we are more fortunate in that respect than Canada was.

[afleitch]

I don't know what will happen and neither does anyone else, though I'll note that there are obvious political reasons for the SNP to insist (for now) that this was a once-in-a-generation vote.

My personal view is that few political phenomenons exemplify bad faith more than neverendums, and so I hope that we are more fortunate in that respect than Canada was.

Down with the gerio-cracy!

The SNP are a comfortable eighteen months or so away from a test at Holyrood. In the last few polls of this campaign some temperature checks on voting intention were done which indicated that, for now, the lopsided support for the SNP at the Holyrood level is still there. I think Salmond lumbering on would have been problematic. Nicola Sturgeon has been positioned into the leadership role for a number of years and is personally popular. Whether or not the 'stairheid brawls' between her and Jimmy Krankie start to become tiresome and as a result off-putting is another matter.

Closer to home, 2015 is still an unknown. There is a potential for the bloc Yes vote, that which is still politically engaged anyway, to coalesce around the SNP particularly if there is stagnation when it comes to further devolution

[eric82oslo]

My apologies if it is too soon/body's not even cold yet (insert similar expression here)...

...how soon before we get indyref 2 here?  

Somewhere between 10 and 25-30 years is my best prediction. Probably something like in 14-15 years no? Or perhaps even less.

Though that is extremly unlikely and dependent on the economic growth continuing to be abysmal pretty much everywhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec was 15 years between it, but the 2nd referendum came after 5 years of tumultuous politics in the country (1993 election, 1992 constitutional talks). 20 years seems like a safe bet for Scotland.

Luckily we're 19 years from the last referendum (but it's still a painful memory for this then-9 year old), and hopefully many years away until the next. 

[politicus]

538 on why the polls where off. We have covered all of the factors at one point or another, but if someone wants the arguments presented in one place its a decent article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-pollsters-think-they-underestimated-no-in-scotland/

[Hatman 🍁]

They were closer than the Quebec referendum

[patrick1]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

You're staying safe, assuming its perilous which...possibly not, I hope?

The main square saw the police 'kettling' the loyalists but it's spilled out on to the other streets because more people have turned up. They have been blocked off now.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152645465120901&set=vb.720735900&type=2&theater

Disgraceful and typical of the most extreme yobbo elements that support a certain football club...

[politicus]

A short resume of a poll from Lord Ashcroft Polls on why Scots voted no. The entire study can be found on http://lordashcroftpolls.com/.

All age groups below 55, except (interestingly) 18-24 (52% No), voted Yes. But pensioners voted No with 73% and there are a lot of old folks in Scotland .

Best Yes group 16-17 (71%), second best 25-34 (59%).

45% of Yes voters think there will be a new referendum within 5 years, 25% of No voters think  its settled forever. Talk about wishfull thinking!

47% of No voters mention economic issues as their most important reason to vote No.

Gender gap was only 3% point.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/7-fascinating-insights-into-why-scotland-voted-against-indep#1mgriif

[eric82oslo]

Quebec was 15 years between it, but the 2nd referendum came after 5 years of tumultuous politics in the country (1993 election, 1992 constitutional talks). 20 years seems like a safe bet for Scotland.

Luckily we're 19 years from the last referendum (but it's still a painful memory for this then-9 year old), and hopefully many years away until the next. 

Our 2nd EU referendum was tremendously stressful for me personally.

[Lincoln Republican]

Re: Scottish independence referendum prediction thread
« Reply #46 on: September 13, 2014, 10:11:51 pm »

 

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No     55%
Yes    45%

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I will now accept my well deserved recognition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Once in a generation" should mean around 20 years, no? This seems like a reasonable time span. It would be a huge mistake for the independence camp to rush into a new referendum too soon (unless some dramatic event significantly and durably alters public opinion, but it's hard to imagine), it would probably backfire.

[ChrisDR68]

"Once in a generation" should mean around 20 years, no? This seems like a reasonable time span. It would be a huge mistake for the independence camp to rush into a new referendum too soon (unless some dramatic event significantly and durably alters public opinion, but it's hard to imagine), it would probably backfire.

One event that could produce calls for another Scottish independence referendum would be if the UK votes to leave the EU in 2017/2018.

The Scots are generally pro-EU with the English being anti on average.

The irony here is that Alex Salmond spent years and years preaching about an independent Scotland within the EU and using the Euro as it's currency... until the financial crisis struck in 2008.

[politicus]

"Once in a generation" should mean around 20 years, no? This seems like a reasonable time span. It would be a huge mistake for the independence camp to rush into a new referendum too soon (unless some dramatic event significantly and durably alters public opinion, but it's hard to imagine), it would probably backfire.

One event that could produce calls for another Scottish independence referendum would be if the UK votes to leave the EU in 2017/2018.

The Scots are generally pro-EU with the English being anti on average.

The irony here is that Alex Salmond spent years and years preaching about an independent Scotland within the EU and using the Euro as it's currency... until the financial crisis struck in 2008.

Even then they need to wait for enough old unionists to die to make a Yes likely, ten years should be minimum. With 55-64 being 43% for independence and 65%+ being only 29% pro-independence losing the oldest generation makes a big difference.

[Lurker]

Our 2nd EU referendum was tremendously stressful for me personally.

You were that politically engaged at the age of 11?

[bore]

The only thing that could justify a referendum in the short run would be it becoming clear that no more powers were being devolved.

[afleitch]

The only thing that could justify a referendum in the short run would be it becoming clear that no more powers were being devolved.

I think so. You have 45% who voted for independence including, it seems a majority of basically everyone from 16-65. It makes sense in that case to make a commitment to some form of federalism. What we will get are a few new powers, but nothing substantial that gives us control over much. Just 'bits' of things. They have already said no to devolving corporation tax for example.

I think Scottish Labour are suffering from a very slow bleeding wound which is probably one of the positives to come out of this campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.