Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I think people here are distracted from the real issue

Which is that this is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[politicus]

I think people here are distracted from the real issue

Which is that this is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

Nah, we are just discussing this VERY important issue in that other thread, ya know, and keeping this one for soothsaying based on miniscule subsamples and infallible intuition.

The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Miliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).

The Scottish Yes is actually genuinely good news for Ed Miliband.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

"Once in a generation" should mean around 20 years, no?

No, the question will return again for one day every hundred years.  Then it will vanish into the highland mist.

[Frodo]

If we're talking another referendum in case London either goes back on its word on devolution max, or devolves too few powers to the Scottish Parliament to satisfy either the nationalists or the unionists, I imagine that Scotland will stick with its 700-year anniversary pattern.  With 1314 out of the way, here are some possibilities:

1325: first year the Parliament of Scotland convened

1328: King Edward II signs Treaty of Northampton acknowledging Scottish independence under the rule of King Robert the Bruce (Edward reneged on it later upon Robert's death)

1341: Taking advantage of English distraction with the Hundred Years War, King David II (King Robert's son and heir) returns from exile in France to claim the Scottish throne, securing Scotland's independence
-------------------

So perhaps 2028 seems most likely.  




 

[Lurker]

The SNP will of course start arguing for another referendun very soon. Salmond even hinted towards another one in his concession speech.

I don't see any reason why London should grant them one before 20 years though (at the earliest). In the campaign the SNP were pretty clear about this being a "once in a generation" opportunity.

[YL]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.

The sample size for the 16-17 age group in the Ashcroft poll is 14.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The SNP will of course start arguing for another referendun very soon. Salmond even hinted towards another one in his concession speech.

I don't see any reason why London should grant them one before 20 years though (at the earliest). In the campaign the SNP were pretty clear about this being a "once in a generation" opportunity.

Having a referendum within the next 10 years would be a freaking stupid idea anyway (unless Westminster reneges on its promises or decides to leave the EU). Voters don't like to be asked the same question after they've provided a clear answer.

[bore]

If we're talking another referendum in case London either goes back on its word on devolution max, or devolves too few powers to the Scottish Parliament to satisfy either the nationalists or the unionists, I imagine that Scotland will stick with its 700-year anniversary pattern.  With 1314 out of the way, here are some possibilities:

1325: first year the Parliament of Scotland convened

1328: King Edward II signs Treaty of Northampton acknowledging Scottish independence under the rule of King Robert the Bruce (Edward reneged on it later upon Robert's death)

1341: Taking advantage of English distraction with the Hundred Years War, King David II (King Robert's son and heir) returns from exile in France to claim the Scottish throne, securing Scotland's independence
-------------------

So perhaps 2028 seems most likely.  




 

One year a pattern does not make.

[Vega]

I think that had independence only failed by a a percentage point or two, then it would have made sense to hold another referendum at some point. But it failed by 10 points.

[politicus]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.

The sample size for the 16-17 age group in the Ashcroft poll is 14.

Yeah, its useless regarding the smallest sub samples. The huge difference between the 16-18 being the most pro-independence and the 18-25 group being the third most pro-union (=strongest under 55) is striking and likely due to a fluke. Then you have 25-34 being  the second strongest Yes group. So a thorough study with an adequate sample of the attitudes of Scots aged 15-35 would be really interesting.

Despite small sub samples the data in the Ashcroft poll does support the general picture from previous polls.

A. Scots get more unionist the older they get from around 25 and upwards
B. 65+ are a lot more unionist than any other age group
C. Young people 18-25 are a little less supportive of independence than those aged 25-55.

Its also clear that a majority of Scots under 55-60 (impossible to draw the exact line) voted Yes.

So the interesting thing is if young Scots will keep being more pro-union than those born 1960-1990,  and if new generations will be less nationalist, so you get a Quebec style development where nationalism is "contained" in certain generations. I just find that very unlikely in the Scottish case - I think devo max will increase Scotlands feeling of being a separate nation and give appetite for more.

If new generations on the contrary follow the general pattern of the 25-55 old and get progressively more nationalist for each future generation then its obviously over for the unionist cause when the boomer generation dies off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In an attempt to demonstrate an under-appreciated aspect to the results, he's the No percentage by local authority with those local authorities that deviated from the overall result by more than 10pts highlighted:

Orkney - 67.2
Scottish Borders - 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway - 65.7
Shetland - 63.7
East Renfrewshire - 63.2
East Lothian - 61.7
East Dunbartonshire - 61.2
Edinburgh - 61.1
Aberdeenshire - 60.4
Perth & Kinross - 60.2
Stirling - 59.8
Aberdeen - 58.6
Argyll & Bute - 58.5
South Ayrshire - 57.9
Moray - 57.6
Angus - 56.3
Midlothian - 56.3
Fife - 55.1
South Lanarkshire - 54.7
Clackmannanshire - 53.8
Falkirk - 53.5
Na h-Eileanan Siar - 53.4
Highlands - 52.9
Renfrewshire - 52.8
East Ayrshire - 52.8
North Ayrshire - 51.0
Inverclyde - 50.1
North Lanarkshire - 48.9
Glasgow - 46.5
West Dunbartonshire - 46.0
Dundee - 42.7

As you can see, there weren't many.

[politicus]

In an attempt to demonstrate an under-appreciated aspect to the results, he's the No percentage by local authority with those local authorities that deviated from the overall result by more than 10pts highlighted:

Orkney - 67.2
Scottish Borders - 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway - 65.7
Shetland - 63.7
East Renfrewshire - 63.2
East Lothian - 61.7
East Dunbartonshire - 61.2
Edinburgh - 61.1

(...)

North Lanarkshire - 48.9
Glasgow - 46.5
West Dunbartonshire - 46.0
Dundee - 42.7

As you can see, there weren't many.

Nah, I thought about that as well and was fx. genuinely surprised Shetland came as close to the national average as it did.

[pendragon]

So here's a make-shift map with the final results using afleitch's template, with all the wards for each district colored to reflect the district's results.

5.3% uniform swing to "yes" (tie vote).



10.6% uniform swing to "yes" (55.3% yes, 44.7% no, mirror image of IRL vote).

[Joe Republic]

When can we expect to see maps by ward?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So here's a make-shift map with the final results using afleitch's template, with all the wards for each district colored to reflect the district's results.

5.3% uniform swing to "yes" (tie vote).

I like the 4 distinct bands of voting here, and how Edinburgh flips Yes (jk I looked at the wrong district). Would the map change much if it was a 51% Yes - 49% No vote?

[MaxQue]

When can we expect to see maps by ward?

Never. Results were counted by authorities, not wards.

[politicus]

When can we expect to see maps by ward?

Never. Results were counted by authorities, not wards.

Afleitch mentioned he had a way to calculate it anyway, so maybe.

[Simfan34]

Not sure this is the right place for this, but can. I see Gordon Brown making a comeback as First Minister and running Scotland as a personal fiefdom of sorts. If he takes the lead in negotations for expanded devolution, presenting himself as the champion of Scottish interests, he could generally establish himself, at long last, as an elder statesman who returned to his native Scotland to steer it towards greater autonomy, a strengthened union with the rest of the country, etc, etc.

This person seems to be thinking much of the same thing.

[Zanas]

Not sure this is the right place for this, but can. I see Gordon Brown making a comeback as First Minister and running Scotland as a personal fiefdom of sorts. If he takes the lead in negotations for expanded devolution, presenting himself as the champion of Scottish interests, he could generally establish himself, at long last, as an elder statesman who returned to his native Scotland to steer it towards greater autonomy, a strengthened union with the rest of the country, etc, etc.

This person seems to be thinking much of the same thing.

lolno

[afleitch]

Some councils are releasing lower level results.

Here is the Yes vote by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency for Glasgow. Who holds the seat at Holyrood is in brackets

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - 57.1 (Labour)
Glasgow Provan - 56.97 (Labour)
Glasgow Pollok  - 53.87 (Labour - Johann Lamont)
Glasgow Southside - 52.99 (SNP - Nicola Sturgeon)
Glasgow Cathcart - 52.80 (SNP)
Glasgow Shettleston - 51.36 (SNP)
Glasgow Kelvin - 52.44 (SNP)
Glasgow Anniesland - 50.79 (SNP)

The Yes vote was strongest in Labour held seats (these are the seats they held during the 2011 wave) The Yes vote in South Lanarkshire was highest in the Rutherglen seat, again the only seat held in South Lanarkshire by Labour.

[bore]

Thanks for the figures

I don't know that much about Glasgow, and no doubt afleitch can correct me if I'm wrong, but the thing that strikes me there is how similar they are. I'd have thought there'd be pretty big social and economic differences between the constituencies,so I'm surprised there's only a 7 point spread.

[Andrea]

South Lanarkshire figures released by the council

Clydesdale Yes 16,733 No 25,391
East Kilbride Yes 31,309 No 36,365
Rutherglen Yes 20,844 No 20,915
Hamilton 32,104 No 39,129

Edinburgh by Westminster constituencies

East Yes 27,500 No 30,6632
North & Leith Yes 28,813 No 43,253
South Yes 20,340 No 38,298
South West Yes 24,659 No 39,509
West Yes 22,615 No 42,946

North Lanarkshire

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Northern Corridor (Boxes 1-88 and Postal Votes 1-24 & 97) Yes 30,821 No 28,486
Coatbridge and part of Airdrie (Boxes 89-186 and Postal Votes 25-48) Yes 30,065 No 26,903
Remainder of Airdrie, Shotts, Bellshill and Viewpark (Boxes 187-267 and Postal Votes 49-72) Yes 25,795 No 27,685
Motherwell and Wishaw (Boxes 268-362 and Postal Votes 73-96) Yes 29,106 No   27,848

(Note for NL: "It is very important to note that whilst ballot boxes from polling stations were allocated and counted by area this was not the case for postal ballots which were simply distributed evenly across the four counting areas and any box could have contained votes from any area. Post ballots accounted for 14.3% of all votes cast")

[ilikeverin]

It really hardly gets clearer (sorted by % yes):

Holyrood winners:
Rutherglen   0.499149884   Labour
East Kilbride   0.462644442   SNP
Hamilton   0.450689989   SNP
Clydesdale   0.397231982   SNP

Coatbridge   0.527752422   Labour
Cumbernauld et al.   0.519685703   SNP
Motherwell and Wishaw   0.511044   Labour
Airdrie et al.   0.482329843   SNP

Westminster winners:
Edi East   0.473061309   Labour (23%)
Edi North/Leith   0.399814059   Labour (3.6%)
Edi South West   0.384288119   Labour (18.6% over Cons)
Edi South   0.346874041   Labour (0.7%)
Edi West   0.344945928   Lib Dem (8.2%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some councils are releasing lower level results.

Here is the Yes vote by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency for Glasgow. Who holds the seat at Holyrood is in brackets

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - 57.1 (Labour)
Glasgow Provan - 56.97 (Labour)
Glasgow Pollok  - 53.87 (Labour - Johann Lamont)
Glasgow Southside - 52.99 (SNP - Nicola Sturgeon)
Glasgow Cathcart - 52.80 (SNP)
Glasgow Shettleston - 51.36 (SNP)
Glasgow Kelvin - 52.44 (SNP)
Glasgow Anniesland - 50.79 (SNP)

Interesting that Anniesland had the lowest percentage. Provan and Maryhill towards the top (and the only two removed from the overall result by more than 10pts) would tend to confirm the suspicion about ethnoreligious background, though Shettleston maybe not... but then what are the boundaries of Shettleston like again?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coatbridge   0.527752422   Labour

...

Airdrie et al.   0.482329843   SNP

Ding Ding Ding