Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[eric82oslo]

For those interested, here's an introduction called Scotland for Dummies , a funny clip created by The Guardian, that famously liberal newspaper: http://www.nrk.no/verden/skottland-for-dummies-1.11940063

[eric82oslo]

Postal votes should mostly be two things:

1) Votes from older voters, like in every other election - older voters are overwhelmingly against Independence (unlike 16-30 group which is said to be pro)
2) People who have been sure of their position all along, in other words a vast majority of no voters, as no has been leading all along and since no is considered the safe option

Together, this might indicate that there might be a slight yes majority on election day. Though it obviously doesn't have to be so since more than 80% of voters waited until election day to vote.

[eric82oslo]

First major indicator: Turnout on the Orkney Islands has been declared: 83.7%

"Official figures from Clackmannanshire put the turnout at 89%."

"Martyn Mclaughlin of the Scotsman tweets: Some 90% of postal votes returned in Edinburgh."

"East Dunbartonshire is declaring that 97% of postal votes have been returned."

[eric82oslo]

I don't see why people are surprised.

Surprised by 97%, not surprised by 84%.

Btw, the turnout in the 1995 Quebec vote was 93.5%. Doubt it'll be that high in Scotland.

[eric82oslo]

Renfrewshire reports 117,612 votes cast, a turnout of 87.3%.

88.6% in Clackmannanshire.

[eric82oslo]

By the way, neat the Monkey Shoulder isn't bad either.  The meatier flavors and nutmeg come out a bit more, and the finish is just as smooth.  That said, I had to break from it and opt for Malbec for the time being.  I can't keep going on Scotch from now till midnight.  

Deserves a picture.


It looks yummie!

[eric82oslo]

Ugh. Sounding more and more like a fairly solid "No" win.

How... dull.

Btw, they said on BBC Scotland that the referendum is trending on Twitter in New York.

[eric82oslo]

West Lothian turnout 86%.

[eric82oslo]

Clackmannanshire (in the very middle/center of Scotland):

No: 19,036 (54%)
Yes: 16,350 (46%)

Turnout: 88.6%

0.9% of Scotland's population (3rd smallest of the 32 regions, only Orkney & Shetland is less populated)

[eric82oslo]

BBC Scotland says Orkney should announce their results within 7 minutes.

Midlothian turnout 87%.

[eric82oslo]

Angus turnout at 85.7%

[eric82oslo]

54-46 for no in Clackmannanshire.
No seems to be on track for a big win.

Not a big one. Clackmannanshire was a likely toss-up, so if that result is anything to go by it could be 54-46.

Really? The first page had this has the highest Yes rating on the time release chart. That could be inaccurate, but if you are knowledgeable I'll trust you. It seemed lean Yes at minimum to me.

Clackmannanshire voted 3% more for the Scottish Nationalist Party in 2011 than the average Scottish district. So if it's any kind of indicator, the no side might win with something like 10-12% perhaps.

Here's a 538 table on all 32 districts: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-rough-guide-to-watching-the-scottish-independence-vote/

[eric82oslo]

BBC Scotland reports that according to the local SNP leader in West Lothian, the votes there are 53% no & 45% yes, in other words about 54-46. West Lothian is a very SNP supporting District (SNP +7%).

East Renfrewshire is 90.4% - new Scottish electoral record
Stirling turnout is 90.1%

[eric82oslo]

Glasgow: 364,000 votes. 75% turnout "only" (said to be "very very high" by BBC Scotland, cause it's an area where "traditionally not many people vote" ).

[eric82oslo]

Orkney:

No: 10,004 (67.2%)
Yes: 4,883 (32.8%)

0.4% of overall Scottish population (smallest district)

83.7% turnout

After 2 (of 32) districts, including 1.3% of the electorate, it's:

Yes: 42%
No: 58%

[eric82oslo]

Is 33% high for Orkney?

Orkney is the 3rd most anti-SNP district after Shetland and East Renfrewshire. It was -20% with SNP in 2011. It's not particularily low I think. If anything, it's perhaps somewhat on the higher end. (But what do I know.)

[eric82oslo]

Scottish Borders turnout is 87.4%.
The no vote will be big in this border district.

[eric82oslo]

Shetland:

0.5% of overall electorate

Total votes: 15,635

Yes: 5,669 (36%) - slightly stronger numbers than in Orkney
No: 9,951 (64%)

Turnout: 84.4%

[eric82oslo]

Shetland:

Total: 15,635

Yes: 5,669 (36%)
No: 9,951 (64%)

Turnout: 84.4%

Where are you getting the figures from? I have the Daily Mail's website open, and Shetland's not on there yet:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2761704/SCOTLAND-REFERENDUM-RESULTS-LIVE-Follow-results-historic-vote-announced-interactive-map.html

BBC Scotland's live stream.

[eric82oslo]

Overall:

No: 59.17%
Yes: 40.83%

This is what I'm looking at: http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results

That looks almost identical to the Quebec vote in 1980 lol. It had a 19% margin. 2nd time it was reduced to a 1.2% margin.

[eric82oslo]

Eilean Siar is about to declare.

If there's no substantial yes victory in Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, it's over for the yes campaign I think. It's one of the really big SNP strongholds.

Rumours are that Glasgow is showing a dead heat in the counting, while in Edinburgh the no campaign might lead by as much as 20%, yet both will keep counting for a couple of more hours of course...

[eric82oslo]

Western Isles (Comhairle nan Eilean Siar)

0.5% of electorate

All votes: 19,758

Yes: 9,195 (46-6%)
No: 10,544 (53.4%)

Turnout: 86.2%

It's over. Sorry.

I couldn't understand a word of what that guy was saying. It sounded like a mixture of Dutch, Scottish, Gaelic and Irish or something.

[eric82oslo]

So far, districts representing 2.3% have reported. 97.7% still to come.

[eric82oslo]

Inverclyde:

1.5% of the electorate

Total: 44,601

Yes: 27,243 (49.9%)
No: 27,329 (50.1%)

Turnout: 87.4%

Now that's close!

[eric82oslo]

What were the expectations for Inverclyde?

Inverclyde is less (-3%) SNP than the rest. So this should be somewhat joyful for Salmon I imagine.