Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[angus]

Polls end at 5PM EDT, a perfect excuse to turn it into a drinking game.  A shot of Highland single malt for every no precinct; a shot of Lowland for every yes precinct.  Something like that.  And if you live in California, take off at 2PM and get an early start on your buzz.  Any takers?

[angus]

Polls end at 5PM EDT, a perfect excuse to turn it into a drinking game.  A shot of Highland single malt for every no precinct; a shot of Lowland for every yes precinct.  Something like that.  Any takers?

A shot of gin for no precints would be more logical. Single malt only for yes.

Reasonable enough, fair lass.  It's settled then.  I think I already have some gin (although it's the Amsterdam variety, not the London.)  I'll pick up a fifth of Glenmorangie on the way home. 

[angus]

Polls end at 5PM EDT, a perfect excuse to turn it into a drinking game.  A shot of Highland single malt for every no precinct; a shot of Lowland for every yes precinct.  Something like that.  Any takers?

A shot per precinct?  Forget you likely dying half an hour into the results returning, you'd spend tens of thousands of dollars.

Still sorting out the rules, and the more I think about it, two types of Scotch Whisky is a better idea than mixing gin and Scotch.  

Also, according to Tetro's chart, the big places won't roll out till it is nearly midnight here.  A 5 till midnight game will require some subtlety.  Not like the SOTU drinking games where we take a shot every time a president mentions the word "freedom" or "moral" or some such. 

I'll have a special drink when the angus council declares.  Aye or nae, let's drink on it either way. 

[angus]

This is exciting. It must be strange for our Scottish members that half the forum is more emotionally invested in the outcome than they are, though.

Usually secessions are bloody affairs.  There have been very few peaceful secessions in history.  KY from VA in 1792 and WV from VA in 1863 are the only two I know of in US history.  In the world, there are probably fewer than a dozen extant nations that have split off peacefully.  Of course, Scotish secession doesn't seem likely at this point, but the possibility alone of this relatively rare thing makes it interesting to the world.  

My guess is that Basques and maybe Catalonians are watching this with special interest.

[angus]

Monkey Shoulder.  Never tried it before but it was on sale for $29.99, five dollars off the normal price.  I usually opt for neat, but today I started with a cube of ice (on Grumps' suggestion).  I'll have the next one neat, as is my custom. 

It's not a single malt, but it's surprisingly rich and malty.  On the nose is a hint of marmalade and cocoa.  And do I detect a note of nutmeg?  Or is it cloves?  Maybe even a smidgeon of licorice.  On the palate it's rich, malty, even velvety.  Self-confident, yet well trained, as it offers a finish of moderate length, not at all bitter or metallic, but rather more like vanilla and a hint of something a bit like citrus.  This will work perfectly.

Aye or nae, to me it matters not, but let's all drink to the stalwart Scot.

Sláinte!

[angus]

You forgot Maine from Massachusetts in 1820...

Indeed, I did.  As for those others, I can't say I forgot.  Even more embarrassing, I must admit that I didn't even know about them.

Okay, so it maybe happens much more often that I expected.  How was my estimate that there probably aren't more than a dozen countries in the world born of a modern peaceful secession, O wise one?

By the way, neat the Monkey Shoulder isn't bad either.  The meatier flavors and nutmeg come out a bit more, and the finish is just as smooth.  That said, I had to break from it and opt for Malbec for the time being.  I can't keep going on Scotch from now till midnight.  And that's assuming that this is decided by then.  As close as it is in the pre-election polls, it may go like the US presidential election of 2000, and not be decided till six weeks from now.  Actually, that'd be boss.  Give us lots to talk about anyway.  

[angus]

I'm at my laptop for the evening now as I finish writing a test. My drink will be Dalwhinnie 15 years old. I don't have much left so I'll rely on some Sam Adams Octoberfest as well.

Ah, Dalwhinnie.  That's a throatier one.  Not bad.  My eponymous, the original Angus McCloud of the Outer Hebrides (RIP and God rest his soul), introduced me to that one, although he generally was a greater fan of the peatier island single malt whisky.  Laphroaig was often his weapon of choice, as I recall.

I actually spent much of the afternoon grading an exam, and haven't been really watching this.  I just a few minutes ago switched on BBCW.  It's really the only story they're covering right now so I assume it'll update regularly.  Listen to that woman's voice.  Man, she's hard to understand.  She sounds like a caricature of Willy the Groundskeeper, except that he was already meant to be a caricature.

[angus]

Clackmannanshire:

No: 19,036
Yes: 16,350

yep, did y'all hear 'em scream when they announced it?  Very enthusiastic.  "AAAAAAAAAAAAh" Mel Gibson-style, just like on that movie.  I guess that's scots-gaelic for "Yee haw!"  Pretty exciting stuff.  

'Tis going to be fun, lads.  

They're showing 1/32 accounted for.  Maybe they'll sort this thing out by morning.

Shall we go with the Malbec for the yes and Monkey for the no?  I like long, drawn-out recounts, but I'm not sure my liver could handle it, so this is probably for the best.

Cheers!

[angus]

Okay, so it maybe happens much more often that I expected.  How was my estimate that there probably aren't more than a dozen countries in the world born of a modern peaceful secession, O wise one?

The breakup of the USSR netted 15 countries alone.

I thought about that, but I'm going to have to call foul.  First, it wasn't peaceful secession.  Well, there's really no second.  It's just that it doesn't really amount to the phenomenon which we're observing herein.  Or, more accurately, the phenomenon that we're not observing.  Breakup of USSR was just more like a pantbutton popping off when a fat guy eats one too many microwaveable convenience store chimichangas.

[angus]

Just for the sake of argument, if Yes did win, would Scotland remain part of the EU? Would they have to apply and wait years for admission? Would they be forced to adopt the Euro?

The more important question regards the opt-out that UK negotiated.  My guess is that it does not, although that has to be decided by lawyers in Bussels, and they're at least as litigious as those in Washington.  I think it could easy join as a new state (assuming that it would want to do so), although it would clearly have to apply, but whether it could join upon the condition of keeping its own new-and-improved Bank of Scotland currency--presumably invented upon its secession--is the main question.

Hey, maybe bitcoin could be the new Scots currency.  

[angus]

Can someone explain why all these British politicians are now insisting variously that things need to change ASAP and fast reform is necessary and the Act of Union should be renegotiated and more powers should be devolved to England and Wales etc etc?? Especially given the fact that it looks like No will win handily.

haha.  Because they're politicians, of course.  What would you do if you were president Lincoln and the legislatures of SC and 12 other states just narrowly decided that they wanted to remain part of the US?  Unfortunately for the US--but perhaps fortunately for the 12 million or so negro servants in the US at the time--the legislatures of SC and those 12 other states did not narrowly decide that they wanted to remain, but if they did then you'd probably try to figure out what pissed them off in the first place.

If a part of your household is irked enough by you to make a scene in public about it, but not so enraged at you that it packs its collective bags and divorces you outright, you'd be smart to make amends, right?

[angus]

Wow this count is slow....

yeah man, I thought we'd "know" by early evening EST.  then again, we more or less already know.

EDT.  It ain't the autumnal equinox yet.  Not that I'm a big fan of daylight savings time--Oh, don't get me started on that!--but at least let me ease into the whole clock-changing thing when I turn the page on the calendar and have a few weeks to prepare for it.

[angus]

Sure, I understand that. But if the No vote is rather decisive, as in +5% or so, I don't really see the need to make reforms as extensive as they're making it sound. Perhaps they're just dramatizing in their tweets and statements and press releases. But it just seems like the Conservatives and the No camp in general have betrayed a shocking lack of confidence or belief in the United Kingdom as it is. Their last-minute desperation offer of "devo-max" to Scotland was truly pathetic, and it's not so clear to me that it helped their cause much at all.

That's a prescient, and more subtle, question than I at first apprehended.  My parents spent some time in Scotland and brought back lots of souvenirs when I was young, but I've never been there myself.  I don't have a good feel for how things work there.

I will say that on my last trip to Puerto Rico I arrived just after a referendum on that island's status.  They have those about once every seven years, by the way, and the results are always exactly the same.  About 55% vote for the status quo, to remain a Commonwealth of the United States, and about 40% vote for statehood, and about 5% vote for complete independence, a divorce from the United States, a la South Carolina 1861.  Not sure why, well, actually I have a pretty good idea about it but that's far beyond the scope of this thread, anyway the results are always thus.  Now, suppose they one day decided to vote 51+% in favor of something other than status quo, such as either statehood or independence.  Do you think that the US government would immediately (or ever) act upon its wishes?  I doubt it.  Still, I get the impression that the London government operates under a different set of rules.  I expect that it would be expected to unchain Scotland should it decide in a binding referendum to divorce itself form the UK.  For that reason, and for the reason that unlike PR, the Scots opinion does seem to be monotonically changing (in favor of nationalism), the UK recognizes that it would do well to satisfy some of its demands.

As for the theory that a diminished UK would necessarily result in a diminished US on the world stage, I'm not sure I buy into that, nor do I think that an severed Scotland necessarily amounts to a diminished British presence in the UN in the first place, so I'm not a kneejerk NO supporter (like most Americans).  On the other hand, I'm not a kneejerk YES supporter either.  I'm just along for the ride.  That said, I do enjoy throwing monkey wrenches in the clockworks at every opportunity, so I must admit that I'm just a tiny bit disappointed that it seems to be decided so decisively at this early hour.

[angus]

profanity

I thank you for quoting me, because for some mysterious reason I got "error occurred" when I tried to quote my own thread.

That's the whole fucking point, in case no one actually gets it, by the way.  Something like 45+% of these people don't like the Hashemites of the world, and certainly would at least like to have their opinions registered in the ether, whether or not they win.

Also, much of the world is watching this election.  Sure, it was likely that the NO vote would win, and I think most of us posted as much earlier, but the mere possibility of a peaceful secession was very interesting to many.  The whole thread was going swimmingly before Hashemite's post.  Let's be honest about that, at least.  (I add that only to answer your implied question.  Hope I haven't misinterpreted.)

[angus]

Hashemite,

Get rid of that horrible moving picture that you posted when you edited my post.  Doing so implies that I would post such a thing.  I would never post such a thing.  All I said in that post is that you should get a grip on your authoritarian tendencies and let this thread evolve.  If any poster other than a moderator misrepresented another poster in that way, he would receive death points.  Your actions are unethical, even by the standards of this forum, and I challenge you to either rectify the situation or defend your actions here and now in this thread.

[angus]

Hashemite

[angus]

pounding headache this morning.  A little hair o' the dog should fix it.  Ah, Monkey Shoulder, the breakfast of champions.  Maybe a little coenzyme Q-10 as well.

I see it was fifty-something percent yes to forty-something percent no.  Any surprise there?  Probably to the close-watchers, but as I recall this was basically the mainstream prediction.

Not sure how I'd have voted since I don't live there, but I imagine I'd have voted yes no matter the cause or issue, just because it's always satisfying to stick a finger in the eye of authority.  According to WaPo this morning, all the UK and Scotish politicians are kissing and hugging.  Even the biggest supporters of independence are making calls for peace and love and harmony, so I don't think that the stock market will crash after all, and planes won't fall out of the sky, and we can go back to arguing about important things like whether Miley Cyrus is a virgin or whether David Cameron is hot or not.

It was fun, though, waiting to see if there'd be a new country.  You scots should do this again soon.

[angus]

English pain ... a drug I can't get enough of

haha.  Here's a succinct analysis from this morning's WaPo. 

Unionists sought to portray the nationalist agenda, modeled on Scandinavian countries that spread their wealth broadly, as a fantasy.  Many independent economists have agreed, questioning whether Scotland can build the sort of egalitarian society that its leaders envision, especially with declining oil revenues and uncertainty hovering over the newly independent nation’s currency.  The “no” side’s warnings of economic doom spurred a backlash among Scots, however, and prompted the pro-union camp to recalibrate its message. In the final days, unionists emphasized their love for Scotland — not their prophecies of failure. Polls suggested the shift may have helped halt growing momentum for independence.

Moral:  you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.  Or, perhaps more appropriately, you catch more midges with haggis than with neeps.

[angus]

A more interesting analysis, also from WaPo.  An excerpt:

Now, with the voting done and the crowds dispersed, the Lion and the Unicorn sit down in the dining room of the humble home they have officially shared for three hundred years, not including the reign of King James, a courtship period during which they were still feeling each other out.

A hush falls.

“Is there anything I can get you?” England asks. “Foot rub? More autonomy?”

Scotland ignores it.

“That kilt looks lovely,” England says. “Really lovely. Love kilts.” England’s fork clatters against its plate. “This haggis is great,” England adds. “I didn’t bring it up a lot during the referendum campaign but I was going to really miss it.”

“Thanks,” Scotland says, unenthusiastically.

“And the sound of bagpipes,” England says. “You look lovely today. Did I mention that? Your heaths especially. And bogs.”

“Calm down,” Scotland says.

“I know you’ve been threatening to leave for years,” England says. “But I didn’t think you’d really — I mean, other territories have come and gone, but I thought we were still strong. What we have is special, I thought.”

“Oh, a special relationship?” Scotland asks. “Like you have with the United States?”

“You know it’s not like that,” England says. “They haven’t been with us for almost 250 years. Listen, you’ve given us so much. Peter Capaldi, there’s a man. The poet Burns. Golf. Mel Gibson.”

“Are you just going to list things?” Scotland says. “I could do without you just listing things like that.”

“I just don’t want you to feel that I don’t notice and appreciate all that you do,” England says, moving the haggis around on its plate. “Because I do. James Macavoy, now there’s a fellow. John Loudon McAdam, the man with the nuts and the roads. And Macbeth. The Scottish play.”

“You’re just saying things with Mac in them,” Scotland says. “You could be guessing.”

“I’m not guessing!” England says. “I appreciate you. Think what I’d be without you. Where would we keep the royals during some seasons of the year?”

“Really?” Scotland says. “Balmoral? Really, that’s the first thing that occurred to you?”

“No,” England says. “Of course not. Other things occurred to me. I was trying for a note of levity.”

“Oh,” Scotland says. “Levity.”

“It would have been really awkward if you’d left,” England says, after a silence. “I mean, Ireland has its own island, so that made a certain sort of sense, but for you to go — it would have sent the wrong message. We would still be occupying the same space, and it really isn’t a huge island when you come right down to it, I say, what?”

“That’s true,” Scotland says.

“I mean, we’d still shop at the same places, and we share a border — I mean, you have to consider the border, it’s not going anywhere. At any rate, I intend not to take you for granted any longer. Things will be different. I want you to know that.”

“Do you mean that?” Scotland asks. “Do you really?”

“Oh yes,” England says. “You know I do. We’re the Lion and Unicorn, just like the poem. The lion and the unicorn were fighting for the crown–”

“I know the poem,” Scotland says. Scotland pours itself a large glass of Scotch and sips it, staring out the window. “I think I made the right decision. It just wasn’t a good time to leave, financially.”

“Quite right,” England says