Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Wasn't the assumption that it almost certainly would do so?

It's never been known and nor has it became any clearer in the last few weeks of the campaign (as these things usually do). If turnout is high, and is relatively high regardless of where you are, even with traditionally higher turnouts in certain parts of the country, the difference could be less than usual, so not only would your national turnout be wrong, but your subnational turnout levels could be askew too.

[afleitch]

Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Have they?  I can't see anything of the sort on https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI (I can find other people on Twitter claiming that they have said this, but no links to the actual statement or anything, which makes me suspicious).

I'm not on twitter so I can't say. If it's bad second hand info then apologies.

[afleitch]

Sturgeon is the only politician in Scotland that has higher approvals than Alex Salmond. She will get the job.

[afleitch]

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

[afleitch]

Which means we also know more or less exactly who the twenty to thirty percent of Labour supporters (as highlighted by basically every poll) who voted Yes are. It makes a degree of logical sense; less attachment to the British state and - in a more functional sense - to the rest of the UK.

_{(Btw, have you ever considered a variant of 'this thing of ours' a generic jokey semi-euphemism for it?)}

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?

The areas that voted strongly in favour of independence were more than likely areas with high Catholic populations. What's important to note that these areas in 2011 also (and this was most clearly seen within Glasgow itself at that time) remained Labour 'boltholes' in an otherwise sea of yellow that year. For that reason, with a bit of intuition, it seemed to me that in west central Scotland those who voted Labour in 2011 may have been more inclined to vote Yes in 2014. What is also striking, excluding E.Duns and E.Ren, the borders, and the islands which have their own special way of thinking is that the parts of the country where the SNP was strong didn't back Yes, or indeed backed No much more heavily.

These areas of the country are richer, have faster growing populations, low Catholic populations and high areas of 'No Religion' in the census amongst the young and high levels of Presbyterianism amongst the old. One would have expected the opposite result across the country. It would be helpful, though it is impossible to see, what the results by council would have been with the over 65's stripped back.

What is all the more curious is that Catholics in 1979 were less inclined to back the Assembly on the basis that there was a not too illegitimate fear that Scotland would become another Ulster. At that time there was a feeling that unionism (not that Catholics ever backed political Unionism in the Scottish sense) was a stalwart against state Presbyterianism.

I don't think there was anything remotely anti-Catholic about the vote. Given that it is likely that Yes led amongst almost all age groups until those in their 60's if anything the map doesn't tell us as much as it ought to. There's a bit of a 'grey mist' that makes meaningful interpretation difficult.

[afleitch]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

[afleitch]

Just to let people know there are clashes in George Square in Glasgow. Loyalists have gathered and have set off flares. Other flares going off in small numbers across the city. Getting under control.

You're staying safe, assuming its perilous which...possibly not, I hope?

The main square saw the police 'kettling' the loyalists but it's spilled out on to the other streets because more people have turned up. They have been blocked off now.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152645465120901&set=vb.720735900&type=2&theater

[afleitch]

I don't know what will happen and neither does anyone else, though I'll note that there are obvious political reasons for the SNP to insist (for now) that this was a once-in-a-generation vote.

My personal view is that few political phenomenons exemplify bad faith more than neverendums, and so I hope that we are more fortunate in that respect than Canada was.

Down with the gerio-cracy!

The SNP are a comfortable eighteen months or so away from a test at Holyrood. In the last few polls of this campaign some temperature checks on voting intention were done which indicated that, for now, the lopsided support for the SNP at the Holyrood level is still there. I think Salmond lumbering on would have been problematic. Nicola Sturgeon has been positioned into the leadership role for a number of years and is personally popular. Whether or not the 'stairheid brawls' between her and Jimmy Krankie start to become tiresome and as a result off-putting is another matter.

Closer to home, 2015 is still an unknown. There is a potential for the bloc Yes vote, that which is still politically engaged anyway, to coalesce around the SNP particularly if there is stagnation when it comes to further devolution

[afleitch]

The only thing that could justify a referendum in the short run would be it becoming clear that no more powers were being devolved.

I think so. You have 45% who voted for independence including, it seems a majority of basically everyone from 16-65. It makes sense in that case to make a commitment to some form of federalism. What we will get are a few new powers, but nothing substantial that gives us control over much. Just 'bits' of things. They have already said no to devolving corporation tax for example.

I think Scottish Labour are suffering from a very slow bleeding wound which is probably one of the positives to come out of this campaign.

[afleitch]

Some councils are releasing lower level results.

Here is the Yes vote by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency for Glasgow. Who holds the seat at Holyrood is in brackets

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - 57.1 (Labour)
Glasgow Provan - 56.97 (Labour)
Glasgow Pollok  - 53.87 (Labour - Johann Lamont)
Glasgow Southside - 52.99 (SNP - Nicola Sturgeon)
Glasgow Cathcart - 52.80 (SNP)
Glasgow Shettleston - 51.36 (SNP)
Glasgow Kelvin - 52.44 (SNP)
Glasgow Anniesland - 50.79 (SNP)

The Yes vote was strongest in Labour held seats (these are the seats they held during the 2011 wave) The Yes vote in South Lanarkshire was highest in the Rutherglen seat, again the only seat held in South Lanarkshire by Labour.

[afleitch]

Some councils are releasing lower level results.

Here is the Yes vote by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency for Glasgow. Who holds the seat at Holyrood is in brackets

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn - 57.1 (Labour)
Glasgow Provan - 56.97 (Labour)
Glasgow Pollok  - 53.87 (Labour - Johann Lamont)
Glasgow Southside - 52.99 (SNP - Nicola Sturgeon)
Glasgow Cathcart - 52.80 (SNP)
Glasgow Shettleston - 51.36 (SNP)
Glasgow Kelvin - 52.44 (SNP)
Glasgow Anniesland - 50.79 (SNP)

Interesting that Anniesland had the lowest percentage. Provan and Maryhill towards the top (and the only two removed from the overall result by more than 10pts) would tend to confirm the suspicion about ethnoreligious background, though Shettleston maybe not... but then what are the boundaries of Shettleston like again?

Glasgow Baillieston was abolished; the poorer half (Easterhouse et al) was moved into Provan and the richer half that used to be in Lanarkshire (Garrowhill, Mount Vernon) moved into Shettleston.

But yeah, Glasgow and Lanarkshire seem to show the pattern that we've talked about and indeed it could be suggested that the proportion of Labour voters saying Yes was higher than some of the surveys were suggesting. Which is why Scottish Labour seem to be bricking it post referendum.

[afleitch]

Well in a Scottish context a capital U Unionist has often been used to mean...

To mean..... what? We're not mind readers

Conservative. The Conservative Party was called for a long time Unionist Party in Scotland. Officially, they are still called Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party.

And to confuse matters further the Unionist part referred to the policy on Ireland.

[afleitch]

Not sure this is the right place for this, but can. I see Gordon Brown making a comeback as First Minister and running Scotland as a personal fiefdom of sorts. If he takes the lead in negotations for expanded devolution, presenting himself as the champion of Scottish interests, he could generally establish himself, at long last, as an elder statesman who returned to his native Scotland to steer it towards greater autonomy, a strengthened union with the rest of the country, etc, etc.

This person seems to be thinking much of the same thing.

Gordon Brown has been a MP in name only for past 4 years, what makes you think he'll suddenly get vigor and somehow manage to become First Minister of Scotland?

That may make an easy newspaper headline, but it's unfair.

Not if you live in Fife it isn't. He's been MIA.