Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something to be aware of: beware early rumours! Generally they are based on literally nothing; counting does not begin the moment that the polls close. There are all kinds of logistical and procedural arrangements that have to be followed, and these can take a while. Even when counting has actually started in a given local authority, be at least a little careful of any rumours from the counts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And obviously any figures posted online before the polls close are complete fiction. Electoral procedure here makes that kind of estimate completely impossible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about oldiesfreak?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One issue is the centralisation of the counting process. Votes aren't counted by polling district, but at the relevant local administration centre. On the other hand, once results are declared they are all the results and are final.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scattered reports of what the postal votes look like are coming through from parts of central Scotland. No idea about the accuracy, but the rumours are No-ish. Take with as much salt as is consumed in the average bowl of porage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't see why people are surprised.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Many rumours of course; many  of which are quite contradictory. Some patterns appear to be emerging though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours from North Lanarkshire suggest a narrow Yes win is likely; it has been widely assumed that a big Yes win was needed from there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still just rumours though. Remember that in some places counting won't be finished for like four, five hours.

(but if Angus is close - as some bbc guy is currently saying - that's probably not good for Yes)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would caution about using past election results as anything more than a vague guide; that's not quite how things have been lining up (and never would have been: it's been the case for at least thirty years that a lot of Labour supporters have had views more 'nationalist' than the party they vote for, for instance).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do I have to explain this again? Votes are not counted at polling district (i.e. precinct) level, but at local counting centres. This means that it takes longer to count, but you get final results earlier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Accuracy matters more than speed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Wee Frees swung it. Which is ironic as they're the people who padlock the swings on Sundays.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dundee will certainly vote yes. Wins are possible for yes in all sorts of places (because of the weird nature of the campaign) but they key thing is to rack up raw numbers. A narrow win is no good.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Inverclyde was widely expected to vote Yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Renfrewshire is NO (that's basically Paisley: big place), Dundee is YES

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Midlothian is a no

[Filuwaúrdjan]

East Lothian is no

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Big no in Aberdeen

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey that ComedyResults poll of D&G was about right. Wonders never cease.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember that Tories are uniformly No; Perth & Kinross still has a lot of those.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Margin nowhere near enough; this can be officially called as a No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder whether the Yes campaign miscalculated in its strategy? Utopia works with a certain section of the population (I maintain that No was way too late on countering that), but not so much elsewhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First Gordon Brown saved the World. And then he saved the United Kingdom as well.