Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[politicus]

Post results here.

[politicus]

Polls end at 5PM EDT, a perfect excuse to turn it into a drinking game.  A shot of Highland single malt for every no precinct; a shot of Lowland for every yes precinct.  Something like that.  Any takers?

A shot of gin for no precints would be more logical. Single malt only for yes.

[politicus]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No exit polls.

[politicus]

Is 10pm the usual time that polls close in the UK?

Yup.

[politicus]

Will there be exit polls to be released at 10pm UK time ?

No exit polls.

A bit of background as to why that is and why its bad.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

[politicus]

I'll have a special drink when the angus council declares.  Aye or nae, let's drink on it either way.  

If Angus says nae its going to be a No landslide.

[politicus]

So why don't they do exit polls anyway?

I think I read that it was simply because nobody paid to do one

Yes. I posted a link earlier in the thread. 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198957.msg4305206#msg4305206

[politicus]

Well, if those guys are right, you could make a fortune : http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html

[politicus]

Betting now has no around a 13 to one favorite.

Unless we now why, that's pretty uninteresting.

[politicus]

I don't think the yes side will prevail.  But I'm not sure if it'll be more of a Quebec 1980-type result or Quebec 1995-type result?

There hasn't really been anything indicating a 1980 type result. Yes must have a pretty high floor.

[politicus]

Renfrewshire reports 117,612 votes cast, a turnout of 87.3%.

[politicus]

Extremely high turnout is potentially good news for "Yes", I would imagine?

Yes, most likely.

So far turnout hasn't been extremely high.

[politicus]

The turnout in Dundee City is 78.8%

Wasn't that supposed to be a Yes stronghold?

Yes.

[politicus]

Extremely high turnout is potentially good news for "Yes" I would think?

Not really... this isn't like the US where high turnout supports 'change' ... this has more of a historic element to it.

People that don't normally vote are estimated to be more likely Yes voters, so a very high turnout would have been good for Yes, but it doesn't look like we will get 90%+. Most likely below 85%, and if Dundee is an indication of the other big cities it could be quite a bit lower. But of course too early to say yet.

[politicus]

No will win comfortably.

I'm going to bed.

Sweet dreams, laddy.

[politicus]

Guys, I mixed Clackmannanshire and Renfrewshire in my tired head. I deleted it almost immediately, but somebody had already quoted it. Please stop quoting my post.

[politicus]

Just for the sake of argument, if Yes did win, would Scotland remain part of the EU? Would they have to apply and wait years for admission? Would they be forced to adopt the Euro?

They would almost certainly have to reapply as an independent nation, which would take a couple years, but nothing crazy (as long as they don't completely flunk the transition to independence).

But no, no nation is "forced" to adopt the Euro.

Sort of. If you wanna join the EU and meet the necessary requirements for membership of the EMU you have to join it. Of the existing EU-members UK and Denmark have exceptions and Sweden artificially make sure they don't meet all the requirements, Scotland could do the same, but it would be frowned upon.

[politicus]

What are the chances of a 32/32 for "No"?

Almost nil imo, a couple of the nationalist strongholds in the east - Moray, Dundee, Angus - are bound to vote yes, even if its narrowly.

[politicus]

Ugh

"Former SNP MSP Andrew Wilson has just declared that he thinks the SNP should get involved in talks about more devolution for Scotland, should indeed Scotland vote "No" in the referendum.

This is the first sign that the SNP may well try to use their vote in this referendum to push the demand for more devolution yet further, rather than stand aside as they did on the occasion of the Scottish constitutional convention."

This is a silly comment. What else would they do.

[politicus]

What were the expectations for Inverclyde?

538 says it was -3 SNP... so, not so bad for Yes, actually.

Yes had thought they'd win it though (albeit not by a huge margin).

The graph had it as a likely No with 2 of 10 (same as Western Isles actually).

[politicus]

What were the expectations for Inverclyde?

Inverclyde is less (-3%) SNP than the rest. So this should be somewhat joyful for Salmon I imagine.

Eric SNP vote shares are pretty useless, there are SNP voters that are going to vote N0 (Ive seen poll numbers as high as 22%) and plenty of Labour voters that are going to vote Yes.

[politicus]

Just 2.3% has been reported, so "Yes" would need 50.2% of the remaining vote to turn this around, according to Alberto Nardelli of The Guardian

That was before Inverclyde.  And to turn it around, Yes would have to start winning in unexpected places, something they haven't done all night; in fact, the opposite has been true.

True, but we haven't had any of the big cities yet, so it could be done, however unlikely it is.

[politicus]

All we need is a big fat Aye in Glasgow .

[politicus]

I'm getting the impression there's an urban -rural divide here.  If "Yes" wins in Glasgow by a huge margin but fails miserably everywhere else, I guess that means the "Yes" camp didn't do a good job getting its message out outside of big cities.

Am I wrong to assume this?  I'm asking because I don't know much about Scotland.

Also ideology. The Yes campaign in Glasgow has been more about socialism than nationalism. Its very different from the Tartan Tories in the NE.

[politicus]

East Lothian is no

60% as they thought or smaller?

EDIT: okay, roughly as predicted.