How Would Your State Vote on Secession?

[Del Tachi]

The independence referendum in Scotland got me thinking:  How would different U.S. states vote on the issue of independence from the United States?

Here's how I would imagine things would shake-down in Mississippi.

No - 66,1%
Yes - 33,9%

No's Best County - Oktibbeha, 88,7% for No
Yes's Best County - Tishomingo, 53,7% for Yes

It would be especially interesting to see votes in Texas, Hawaii, Alaska, and a couple of other states

[Dixie Reborn]

In Alabama, I'd imagine things would be similar, with the northwestern and northeastern counties supporting secession while losing heavily in the urban and central counties. Yes's best county would be without a doubt Lauderdale, while No's best would probably be Macon. In Arkansas, where I'm moving to soon, Yes's best would likely be Boone County, while No's best would most likely be Pulaski (where Little Rock is) or Chicot County. Arkansas's pattern would be basically the same, with Yes performing best in Rural northwestern and especially well in places in southern Arkansas with high concentrations of whites, while doing terrible in urban and African American counties. Unfortunately, I'm using a Mac, so I can't use MS Paint to draw all of this out.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It would be upwards of >90% No in every county in New Jersey. 

[IceSpear]

>80% no. Would probably do best in Pennsyltucky, but I doubt it would win any counties.

[JerryArkansas]

In Alabama, I'd imagine things would be similar, with the northwestern and northeastern counties supporting secession while losing heavily in the urban and central counties. Yes's best county would be without a doubt Lauderdale, while No's best would probably be Macon. In Arkansas, where I'm moving to soon, Yes's best would likely be Boone County, while No's best would most likely be Pulaski (where Little Rock is) or Chicot County. Arkansas's pattern would be basically the same, with Yes performing best in Rural northwestern and especially well in places in southern Arkansas with high concentrations of whites, while doing terrible in urban and African American counties. Unfortunately, I'm using a Mac, so I can't use MS Paint to draw all of this out.

First off, where in Arkansas are you moving to, I could meet up with you if you're moving near me.  Second, I would expect the vote to play out like this. 
Here is the Statewide vote for no on our Gay marriage ban.

Counties which have a >10 would have the highest yes vote, but it shouldn't pass in any county.

[Dixie Reborn]

In Alabama, I'd imagine things would be similar, with the northwestern and northeastern counties supporting secession while losing heavily in the urban and central counties. Yes's best county would be without a doubt Lauderdale, while No's best would probably be Macon. In Arkansas, where I'm moving to soon, Yes's best would likely be Boone County, while No's best would most likely be Pulaski (where Little Rock is) or Chicot County. Arkansas's pattern would be basically the same, with Yes performing best in Rural northwestern and especially well in places in southern Arkansas with high concentrations of whites, while doing terrible in urban and African American counties. Unfortunately, I'm using a Mac, so I can't use MS Paint to draw all of this out.

First off, where in Arkansas are you moving to, I could meet up with you if you're moving near me.  Second, I would expect the vote to play out like this. 
Here is the Statewide vote for no on our Gay marriage ban.

Counties which have a >10 would have the highest yes vote, but it shouldn't pass in any county.

I'm moving to the Arkansan side of Texarkana; IDK if you're in that region. Anyway, I'd think that a secession referendum would win at least some counties, especially places in the Ozarks.

[JerryArkansas]

In Alabama, I'd imagine things would be similar, with the northwestern and northeastern counties supporting secession while losing heavily in the urban and central counties. Yes's best county would be without a doubt Lauderdale, while No's best would probably be Macon. In Arkansas, where I'm moving to soon, Yes's best would likely be Boone County, while No's best would most likely be Pulaski (where Little Rock is) or Chicot County. Arkansas's pattern would be basically the same, with Yes performing best in Rural northwestern and especially well in places in southern Arkansas with high concentrations of whites, while doing terrible in urban and African American counties. Unfortunately, I'm using a Mac, so I can't use MS Paint to draw all of this out.

First off, where in Arkansas are you moving to, I could meet up with you if you're moving near me.  Second, I would expect the vote to play out like this. 
Here is the Statewide vote for no on our Gay marriage ban.

Counties which have a >10 would have the highest yes vote, but it shouldn't pass in any county.

I'm moving to the Arkansan side of Texarkana; IDK if you're in that region. Anyway, I'd think that a secession referendum would win at least some counties, especially places in the Ozarks.

I'm on the clear other side of the state in Jonesboro.

[muon2]

On the question of secession from he US, IL would be firmly no. However if the question was separation from Cook, the vote would be quite different in many counties.

[angus]

I have no idea.  What's odd is that so far all the states posted for secession are the poor ones and those against are the rich ones.  That seems illogical.  

I did a little searching and found that 24% of Americans recently polled favor the idea of their state seceding and that 53% oppose.  According to that poll, Western states favor it more than Eastern ones.  That seems a bit more logical but even there some of the poorest ones (e.g., New Mexico) are some of the strongest supporters while some of the richest ones (e.g., Connecticut) are most in opposition.

Here's a link:

http://blogs.reuters.com/jamesrgaines/2014/09/19/one-in-four-americans-want-their-state-to-secede-from-the-u-s-but-why/

Click on the map and you can filter it by income, educational attainment, state of residence, party affiliation, etc.  They claim an error of only 1.2%, but I find that claim a bit dubious since it's an internet poll.
 
In no state is it over 50%, so I guess that's the bottom line, if this poll is to be believed.

[Mr. Illini]

Basically what muon said. Not a county would be less than 80% against in Illinois and most would be 90%+. Chicagoland would be strongly opposed because of it being deeply connected to the rest of the country economically. The rest of the state would vote strongly against to avoid being ruled at the hands of Chicagoland. The most support would probably come from downstate, more liberal counties that are less connected economically with the rest of the country and interested in more left-wing governance. They still wouldn't oppose it by less than 75-80%, though.



If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.

[Cranberry]

Obviously not in the US, but here's how I could see a seccesion vote work out in my state, Tirol:



Possibly 70%-80% No, with the strongest No support in the remote, rural district of Lienz in the far southeast, as this district is not connected directly with the rest of Tirol. The strongest Yes support I would see in the touristy, wealthy areas in the Southwest, the districts of Landeck (the one in the southwest) and Imst (where I live | the one to the east of Landeck, with that small, narrow strip in the northeast bordering Germany)

[Tender Branson]

No Austrian state would come anywhere close to voting YES on secession.

The closest #IndyRef result would probably be in Vorarlberg.

If Vorarlberg got the option of joining Switzerland though, it might actually pass 50% ...

Also, don't know really what would happen if Südtirol were to vote either for Independence from Italy or for joining Austria or for a merger with the rest of Tyrol (a joint referendum would be held in the North to create a future "independent country of Tyrol").

It would also be interesting if Austria held an "EU-exit referendum" like the UK proposes for 2017. Recent polls indicate that Austrians would be 50-50 in such a referendum.

[Person Man]

[ElectionsGuy]

>85% No.

[TNF]

The context here is very important. Is the secession movement left or right wing?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario separating from Canada would be like England separating from the UK. I would probably vote yes for the lolz, but I can't think of anywhere that would be under 90% No. Maybe Toronto

[Del Tachi]

If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.

It would be quite interesting if the entire state of Illinois was allowed to vote on whether or not to essentially give Chicagoland the boot - haha!

If only the Chicagoland counties were allowed to vote on such a proposal, do you think the numbers in Cook County would be enough to overcome the high margins in the well-to-do suburbs?

[muon2]

If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.

It would be quite interesting if the entire state of Illinois was allowed to vote on whether or not to essentially give Chicagoland the boot - haha!

If only the Chicagoland counties were allowed to vote on such a proposal, do you think the numbers in Cook County would be enough to overcome the high margins in the well-to-do suburbs?

In 2012 Cook cast 2.01M votes while the other Chicagoland counties on the map cast 1.37M votes. So if Cook was 60% yes, the rest of the counties would have to vote 65% no to defeat it. If Cook was 65%, it would take 72% no from the rest.

FTR Kankakee is as much a part of Chicagoland as DeKalb. Grundy is usually in the same category as DeKalb and Kankakee, too. All three are part of the exurban "ring around the collar".

[Mr. Illini]

If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.

It would be quite interesting if the entire state of Illinois was allowed to vote on whether or not to essentially give Chicagoland the boot - haha!

If only the Chicagoland counties were allowed to vote on such a proposal, do you think the numbers in Cook County would be enough to overcome the high margins in the well-to-do suburbs?

It sure would be interesting. Typically you have downstate and Chicago being very opposed in elections with the suburbs being swingy. In this case downstate and Cook are more or less in agreement with the suburbs being very opposed.

Illinois is currently a blue state largely because the suburbs are able to tack on enough blue votes (on top of Chicago) to put the state out of play with downstate largely irrelevant. If we go back to the days of swing-state Illinois, we see it was a swing state because Chicago and the suburbs were very much opposed (the suburbs were staunch Republican pre-1990's). Downstate was, though, split at the time between GOP corn country (it still hasn't changed) and the blue dog southern third (that's changed a lot).

My guess is that Chicago + downstate would put the NO team out of play, but if it were strictly Chicagoland voting it would be more competitive.

[Del Tachi]

If the state were to vote on the separation of Chicagoland, it would be a fascinating map. In this proposal, the counties of Lake, Cook, DuPage, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall, and Will would become their own state. This is much more feasible than simply Cook becoming its own state. In this vote, you would have strong support in the southern part of the state and moderate support in Cook County. Strong opposition would come in the collar counties and liberal counties downstate and out west.

It would be quite interesting if the entire state of Illinois was allowed to vote on whether or not to essentially give Chicagoland the boot - haha!

If only the Chicagoland counties were allowed to vote on such a proposal, do you think the numbers in Cook County would be enough to overcome the high margins in the well-to-do suburbs?

It sure would be interesting. Typically you have downstate and Chicago being very opposed in elections with the suburbs being swingy. In this case downstate and Cook are more or less in agreement with the suburbs being very opposed.

Illinois is currently a blue state largely because the suburbs are able to tack on enough blue votes (on top of Chicago) to put the state out of play with downstate largely irrelevant. If we go back to the days of swing-state Illinois, we see it was a swing state because Chicago and the suburbs were very much opposed (the suburbs were staunch Republican pre-1990's). Downstate was, though, split at the time between GOP corn country (it still hasn't changed) and the blue dog southern third (that's changed a lot).

My guess is that Chicago + downstate would put the NO team out of play, but if it were strictly Chicagoland voting it would be more competitive.

I mean, I was just trying to make the point that allowing Downstate to vote on the issue of Chicago statehood would be analogous to letting the entire UK vote on the question of Scottish independence; i.e., not very democratic. 

[ElectionsGuy]

The independence referendum in Scotland got me thinking:  How would different U.S. states vote on the issue of independence from the United States?

Here's how I would imagine things would shake-down in Mississippi.

No - 66,1%
Yes - 33,9%

No's Best County - Oktibbeha, 88,7% for No
Yes's Best County - Tishomingo, 53,7% for Yes

It would be especially interesting to see votes in Texas, Hawaii, Alaska, and a couple of other states

I'm just curious Del Tachi, what would the white vs. black vote look like? Since MS is the most racially polarized state in the US.

[Del Tachi]

The independence referendum in Scotland got me thinking:  How would different U.S. states vote on the issue of independence from the United States?

Here's how I would imagine things would shake-down in Mississippi.

No - 66,1%
Yes - 33,9%

No's Best County - Oktibbeha, 88,7% for No
Yes's Best County - Tishomingo, 53,7% for Yes

It would be especially interesting to see votes in Texas, Hawaii, Alaska, and a couple of other states

I'm just curious Del Tachi, what would the white vs. black vote look like? Since MS is the most racially polarized state in the US.

I think the map speaks pretty clearly for itself.  The Delta is the most No-voting region in the state, and I imagine that the statewide Black vote would favor "No" by close to 80%.  Whites would probably support No by over 60%, which, now if I think about it, extrapolating those figures seems to suggest that giving "Yes" 33% statewide support is extremely generous.   

[7,052,770]

The independence referendum in Scotland got me thinking:  How would different U.S. states vote on the issue of independence from the United States?

Here's how I would imagine things would shake-down in Mississippi.

No - 66,1%
Yes - 33,9%

No's Best County - Oktibbeha, 88,7% for No
Yes's Best County - Tishomingo, 53,7% for Yes

It would be especially interesting to see votes in Texas, Hawaii, Alaska, and a couple of other states

I'm just curious Del Tachi, what would the white vs. black vote look like? Since MS is the most racially polarized state in the US.

I think the map speaks pretty clearly for itself.  The Delta is the most No-voting region in the state, and I imagine that the statewide Black vote would favor "No" by close to 80%.  Whites would probably support No by over 60%, which, now if I think about it, extrapolating those figures seems to suggest that giving "Yes" 33% statewide support is extremely generous.   

Are you basing your "Yes" counties off anything in particular? The 2000 Flag Vote?

I find it hard to believe that Yes could win a single county, especially ones in the Northeast where white people still vote Democrat (gasp!) from time to time. And I can't imagine 20% or even 2% of blacks backing it.

Ironically, Jones County might be a Yes vote if anyone is.

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt that more than 5 or 10% of the population of New Jersey would vote in favor of it splitting off from the United States.

[Del Tachi]

The independence referendum in Scotland got me thinking:  How would different U.S. states vote on the issue of independence from the United States?

Here's how I would imagine things would shake-down in Mississippi.

No - 66,1%
Yes - 33,9%

No's Best County - Oktibbeha, 88,7% for No
Yes's Best County - Tishomingo, 53,7% for Yes

It would be especially interesting to see votes in Texas, Hawaii, Alaska, and a couple of other states

I'm just curious Del Tachi, what would the white vs. black vote look like? Since MS is the most racially polarized state in the US.

I think the map speaks pretty clearly for itself.  The Delta is the most No-voting region in the state, and I imagine that the statewide Black vote would favor "No" by close to 80%.  Whites would probably support No by over 60%, which, now if I think about it, extrapolating those figures seems to suggest that giving "Yes" 33% statewide support is extremely generous.   

Are you basing your "Yes" counties off anything in particular? The 2000 Flag Vote?

I find it hard to believe that Yes could win a single county, especially ones in the Northeast where white people still vote Democrat (gasp!) from time to time. And I can't imagine 20% or even 2% of blacks backing it.

Ironically, Jones County might be a Yes vote if anyone is.

I just now looked at a map of 2001 flag referendum results, and I think there'd be a strong correlation with the best counties for the old flag being the best counties for the "Yes" campaign.

As for your comment about Northeastern Democrats - I think that the fact that there are still very conservative White people in Mississippi who vote Democrat shows their collection disconnection to national politics rather than a genuinely more liberal ideology.  They sound more like yes voters to me.