Sabato's Gubernatorial Rating Changes

[ElectionsGuy]

Article Link

Hickenlooper (CO): Lean D --> Toss-Up
Otter (ID): Safe R --> Likely R
Martinez (NM): Likely R --> Safe R
Corbett (PA): Lean D --> Likely D

I personally disagree with all but Pennsylvania's change (about time!). Even if King's campaign is collapsing, he's still polling within 10 points of Martinez and its a blue state (though that's not saying much, since Sandoval will sweep to victory). For Idaho, their change was completely based on what they "heard" about Otter. Otter has a problem with electability, but I don't think Idaho is the place for a democrat to have a chance in 2014. And for Hickenlooper, I think the one poll showing him down 10 was a fluke. I don't disagree with this one as much but I'd be cautious about the change.

[Niemeyerite]

So Martinez is safer than Otter now?

I'm skeptical.

[SWE]

RIP Otter

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sabato is weird in that he seems to really distrust polling as a source for his ratings, instead relying on personal hunches and guesswork.

[Vega]

What did Otter do, exactly? Could a Democrat win in Idaho?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Double post for some reason!!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

What did Otter do, exactly? Could a Democrat win in Idaho?

I guess, Walt Minnick (DINO) pulled out a plurality in his House district in 2008, but it seems like a bar Democrats are unable to attain.

I was actually just in Idaho last weekend visiting friends, and because I have no self control I asked them what they all thought of Otter. Everyone's perception of him is pretty meh (they all know him because of his name, well to be fair, he's been involved in ID politics for decades). He gets high approvals because (and this is quoting someone) "there's nothing to do as governor of Idaho."

Conclusion: he should be reelected without any significant issues.

[LeBron]

So Otter has as good a chance of winning as Kasich did pre-Fitzy scandals? Yeah, Sabato's gone off the deep end. Tea Partiers in Idaho are upset with Otter over establishing a state exchange through Obamacare and some will vote third party, but others will just bite their tongue and vote for Otter. Plus it's Idaho; Otter's not going anywhere. If Nels Mitchell becomes Governor, then I'll take back everything I've said about Sabato's ratings being terrible.

If any deep red state should be going from safe to likely, if at all, it should be Oklahoma.

Some of his other ratings are very skeptical to me.

SC should be likely R at this point w/Haley successfully recovering, IL should go back to a tossup (Rauner's too terrible to win statewide, >WAA polls here, and don't underestimate Cook County), AK and WI are alright I guess for now but are probably closer to tossups, RI should be lean D after a brutal, brutal primary, and HI likely D with Ige.

[Vega]

It'd be nice if a somewhat reputable pollster would poll Idaho. Sabato's ratings often leave me shaking my head.

[Dixie Reborn]

RIP Otter

Tossup/Tilt D

[Vosem]

Sabato is weird in that he seems to really distrust polling as a source for his ratings, instead relying on personal hunches and guesswork.

Sabato's ratings have historically been quite good (though he overestimated Romney by quite a bit in 2012), but it seems with every update he picks a new basically safe race to declare as a potential sleeper, before taking it back with the next update. Before ID-GOV it was MN-SEN.

So Otter has as good a chance of winning as Kasich did pre-Fitzy scandals?

That chance of winning being, like, 5-10%? Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

[Vega]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

[Dixie Reborn]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK should go to competitive seats
IL tossup
NM lean GOP

I think eventually KS and AK will switch places.

I got Quinn, Walker of AK and Schauer winning. Dems at 23

[Vega]

There is such little data on Alaska, I can't really say how it's going to turn out.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

As does every other major rank-based political prognosticator. (Rothenberg, Cook, Governing, RCP, Daily KOS)

[IceSpear]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

As does every other major rank-based political prognosticator. (Rothenberg, Cook, Governing, RCP, Daily KOS)

"muh purple state" + "muh gillespie" > all empirical data.

[SWE]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

As does every other major rank-based political prognosticator. (Rothenberg, Cook, Governing, RCP, Daily KOS)

"muh purple state" + "muh gillespie" > all empirical data.

In Sabato's most recent update he hinted that he might move Oregon and Virginia to Safe D if nothing changes by his next update, so there might still be hope

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

As does every other major rank-based political prognosticator. (Rothenberg, Cook, Governing, RCP, Daily KOS)

"muh purple state" + "muh gillespie" > all empirical data.

In Sabato's most recent update he hinted that he might move Oregon and Virginia to Safe D if nothing changes by his next update, so there might still be hope

Where exactly did he hint that? The word 'Oregon' is absent from his latest update, as is the word 'Virginia' (in instances where it is not immediately preceded by the word 'West').

[SWE]

Um... PA is likely D? Oh come on Larry.

Baby Steps, baby steps.

Sabateur still has VA at Likely D.

As does every other major rank-based political prognosticator. (Rothenberg, Cook, Governing, RCP, Daily KOS)

"muh purple state" + "muh gillespie" > all empirical data.

In Sabato's most recent update he hinted that he might move Oregon and Virginia to Safe D if nothing changes by his next update, so there might still be hope

Where exactly did he hint that? The word 'Oregon' is absent from his latest update, as is the word 'Virginia' (in instances where it is not immediately preceded by the word 'West').

Sorry, not his last update, this one.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MATTROSE94]

RIP Otter

I guess OC was right in his predictions after all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Per you gov polling

[IceSpear]

Per you gov polling

1) lolyougov
2) How is this relevant to Sabato's ratings?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is thw map that we are staring at almost 30 days out.

Senate map is CO, NC and KS carries day for Dems 47 seats while AK and La may or maynot flip to us 47d-3I-50pubs